Flash Flood Warning 36, NWS Tucson, AZ

109 
WGUS75 KTWC 170044
FFSTWC

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
544 PM MST Sat Aug 16 2025

AZC019-170054-
/O.EXP.KTWC.FF.W.0036.000000T0000Z-250817T0045Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Pima AZ-
544 PM MST Sat Aug 16 2025

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 545 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR 
EASTERN PIMA COUNTY...

The heavy rain has ended. Flood waters have receded. Flooding is no 
longer expected to pose a threat. Please continue to heed remaining 
road closures.

&&

LAT...LON 3226 11098 3225 11093 3222 11094 3222 11098
      3225 11100

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
145 PM MST Sat Aug 16 2025

.SYNOPSIS....Isolated to scattered thunderstorms today across
Southeast Arizona. Given the ample atmospheric moisture available
for these storms, the main impact with these storms will be the
potential for brief, locally heavy rainfall, especially southeast
of Tucson in Cochise county. Otherwise, daily isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms will persist into next week
with day to day variability in intensity and chances.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A field of cumulus clouds with some towering have
developed from Sells eastward. Several small, short-lived
thunderstorms have developed producing 0.05 to 0.35 inches of
rain. The 18Z KTUS sounding shows there is a suitable amount of
low-level moisture with low-level RH at 58%, PWAT of 1.41 inches,
and mixing ratio of 12.2 g/kg however there is a substantial layer
of dry, warm air beginning around 600 mb. The low-level moisture
has allowed for the development of the cumulus field however
towering cumulus are having a hard time intensifying into strong
storms due to the warm, dry layer. The storms that have developed
this morning and for storms that will continue to develop into the
afternoon they will be short-lived, sub-severe, with locally
brief heavy rainfall. The 12Z HREF shows there is a 50-70% chance
for 3 hr QPF to be greater than 1 inch in Cochise and eastern Pima
counties this afternoon. The Weather Prediction Center (WPC) has
placed us in a marginal risk for excessive rainfall and the Storm
Prediction Center (SPC) has placed us in a general risk for severe
thunderstorms.

The upper high currently located over the south-central US will slowly
shift into southern New Mexico Sunday evening, the AZ/NM border
by Monday afternoon, then on its way to the Four Corners region
Tuesday afternoon. The high will strengthen and remain in the Four
Corners area through the second half of next week. While the
location of the high in the Four Corners is typically a positive
location for an increase in Monsoonal activity, it all depends on
the moisture that is available. Unfortunately, there looks to be
an overall drying trend across the southwest that will decrease
our PWATs and likely set-up a pattern where we have isolated
storms east of Tucson capable of producing strong and gusty
thunderstorm outflows but little rainfall. Storms further west of
Tucson will have a better chance of producing heavy rainfall as
they will be able to tap into a moisture supply from the Gulf of
California. Due to the location of the high and drying trend,
afternoon high temperatures gradually warm back up to 4-6 degrees
above normal Wednesday through Friday of next week increasing
HeatRisk to Major by Wednesday and locally Extreme by Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 18/00Z.
FEW to SCT clouds AOA 5k to 10k ft AGL across much of southern
Arizona. Isolated showers and storms have been developing near
KALK, KFHU, and KDUG that have produced brief, heavy rainfall.
Isolated to scattered storms and showers will continue to develop
areas KTUS eastward dissipating by 17/03Z. Cloud coverage will
lessen by 17/07Z becoming SKC to FEW AOA 10k to 15k ft AGL. SFC
winds will be from the west at 5 to 10 kts becoming light and
variable aft 17/06Z. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF
amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Expect daily chances for thunderstorms and wetting
rain showers into early next week. Min RHs will generally be
around 25 percent in the lower elevations and 45+ percent in the
mountains today. Sunday, min RHs will start to drop back down to
the 15-20 percent in the lower locations and 20-30 in the
mountains by mid-week next week. Winds will generally be less
than 15 mph with typical afternoon gusts up to 20 mph into next
week. Monsoon moisture is projected to return late next week to
provide higher chances for thunderstorms and rain showers.
Temperatures will be around normal through this weekend, trending
above normal the second half of next week.

&&

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

Malarkey

Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson