Flash Flood Warning 26, NWS Tucson, AZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
209 PM MST Tue Jul 22 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Chance of showers and thunderstorms through today
then drying out for most of southeast Arizona into the upcoming
weekend. High temperatures generally below normal through
Wednesday then heating up into the weekend, bringing widespread
Moderate HeatRisk.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- Slow-moving isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will
  be capable of producing heavy rain, and localized flash flooding
  today
-Drier air moves in from west today, diminishing storm chances by
 this evening
-Drier and warmer conditions tomorrow continuing through the
 weekend, with Moderate HeatRisk developing Saturday, becoming
 widespread by Sunday- Monday
&&

.DISCUSSION...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms have filled in across much of
Cochise, Graham, Greenlee, and far eastern Pima counties this
afternoon. So far these storms have produced 0.50" to about 2" of
rainfall where storms have trained so far this afternoon. This
has resulted in mostly localized nuance flooding issues. Continued
concerns for flash flooding remain through this evening as storms
train and cluster together, especially over areas that have seen
recent rainfall.

As dry air continues to filter in from the west throughout the day
today, PWATs will be around 0.50" to around 1" across far eastern
AZ by tomorrow afternoon. As such, thunderstorm development will
be limited to far eastern Arizona, mainly along the higher terrain
of Graham/Greenlee counties, with the best chances along the White
Mountains. Continued drying Thursday through the weekend, will
result in a mostly dry forecast and an increase in temperatures.
Warmest temperatures are expected Sunday, with highs around 5-10
degrees above seasonal normals, resulting in widespread Moderate
HeatRisk.

By Monday, the board ridge across the central US will shift a bit
west, allowing a resurgence of moisture (1-1.5") into
southeastern AZ, which will bring a return of storm chances across
much of the region. Temperatures on Monday are still being
advertised as very warm, but could be tempered with any
thunderstorms that develop Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 23/00Z.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are across much of southeast
AZ, primarily over Cochise, Graham, Greenlee, eastern Pima and
northeastern Santa Cruz counties. Scattered TSRA/SHRA will
diminish west to east by 00Z to 03Z. Gusty and erratic winds in
the vicinity of thunderstorms to around 25 knots have been
observed, with up to 30 knots possible. Otherwise winds should
remain below 12-15 knots. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF
amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Below normal high temperatures through Wednesday
then heating up into this weekend. Typical monsoon activity today
then more pronounced drying and warming Wednesday into the
weekend. Afternoon winds will remain southwesterly to westerly at
10-15 mph, with occasional gusts at or above 25 mph. Afternoon RH
values in the valleys will be 20-40% through Tuesday and higher in
the mountains before drying considerably with Min RH values of
10-20% in the valleys and 15-30% in the mountains through the rest
of the week.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

Public...Peters
Aviation...Peters
Fire Weather....Peters

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Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
242 PM MST Tue Jul 22 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0130 PM     Flash Flood      Saint David             31.90N 110.22W
07/22/2025                   Cochise            AZ   Trained Spotter

            Trained spotter reported 3 feet of water
            moved through a narrow wash that crosses
            South Miller Lane near Highway 80 in St
            David AZ.

&&

CLP