Flash Flood Warning 24, NWS Tucson, AZ

358 
WGUS75 KTWC 190359
FFSTWC

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
859 PM MST Fri Jul 18 2025

AZC003-009-190409-
/O.EXP.KTWC.FF.W.0024.000000T0000Z-250719T0400Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Cochise AZ-Graham AZ-
859 PM MST Fri Jul 18 2025

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 9 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR 
NORTHWESTERN COCHISE AND SOUTH CENTRAL GRAHAM COUNTIES...

Flash flooding is no longer expected to pose a threat. Please 
continue to heed remaining road closures.

&&

LAT...LON 3243 11007 3249 11013 3253 11015 3261 11004
      3251 10998 3245 10992 3239 10984 3235 10988
      3230 10986 3227 10989 3234 10994 3241 11005

$$

CWR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
250 PM MST Fri Jul 18 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Low-grade monsoon pattern through the weekend with high
temperatures around normal.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...

 -Scattered showers and storms this afternoon and evening mainly
  south and east of Tucson with the main hazard being heavy
  rainfall.

 -Chances (30-50%) for scattered showers and thunderstorms
  continue into the overnight hours mainly east of Tucson.

 -A gradual warming and drying trend is expected by the latter
  half of next week. Increasing temperatures and decreasing
  chances for precipitation will lead to widespread Moderate
  HeatRisk and below normal precipitation.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Latest GOES-19 satellite imagery showed scattered
cumulus development over southeast Arizona. A few showers and storms
have been trying to pop up over the higher terrain areas from
orographic convergence, but struggling to stay organized. This could
partially be attributed to a layer of warm air aloft (per the 18/18Z
KTWC sounding) choking off updrafts. The 18/18Z sounding from KTWC
also came back with around 1.2 inches of precipitable water (drier
than anticipated) but there is still better moisture residing and
moving into Cochise County according to GOES-19 precipitable water
trends over the last few hours. There was also drier air aloft on
the sounding with mid-level relative humidity around 40 percent.
Latest RAP and other short term guidance shows increasing midlevel
relative humidity to around 70 percent this afternoon along the
Arizona and New Mexico border. Over the next few hours, midlevel
positive vorticity advection in conjunction with upper level
diffluence and a relative weakness in the midlevel will begin to
interact with the low to midlevel moisture resulting in better
dynamic forcing for scattered showers and storms. The strongest
dynamic forcing will gradually shift north into Graham and
Greenlee counties around 03Z (8 pm) which could help initiate
additional convection and sustain some storms into the evening to
the east of Tucson overnight. Any stronger storms from this
activity could result in heavy rain and isolated instances of
Flash Flooding. From Tucson west, latest guidance does not support
the confidence or coverage for showers and thunderstorms, so
nudged the probability or precipitation down from NBM guidance
where appropriate.

Over the weekend, southerly flow continues with the upper low moving
into southern California and the high pressure centered over the
southeast coast. This will be conducive to additional low to mid
grade Monsoonal thunderstorm activity (mainly east of Tucson) with
daily chances for isolated to scattered afternoon thunderstorms.
There will be continued potential for heavy rain which could result
in localized instances of flash flooding, and perhaps gusty outflow
winds in the strongest storms.

Heading into next week, low grade Monsoon days continue. However, we
will see a gradual drying trend as ensembles are starting to show
moisture get shunted gradually eastward. Afternoon shower and
thunderstorm potential will mostly be dependent on recycled
moisture from thunderstorm outflows from the previous day. Latest
guidance from the Climate Prediction Center depicts above normal
temperatures and below normal precipitation for southeast Arizona
in the 6 to 10 and 8 to 14 day outlooks. Temperatures will be on
the increase with highs starting to rise to a few degrees above
normal areawide by the beginning of next week. By midweek, we see
high pressure rebuilding into the Desert Southwest resulting in
widespread moderate HeatRisk and notably lower chances for storms.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 20/00Z.
FEW-SCT cloud bases at 8k-11k feet with isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms mainly east and south of KTUS through
this evening. Gusty and erratic winds up to 40 kts with any storm.
Otherwise surface winds mainly under 12 kts. Aviation discussion
not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...High temperatures near normal for much of the next
7 days. Low grade monsoon pattern for much of the next 7 days with
day-to-day variability in thunderstorm coverage. Afternoon winds
will remain westerly from 10-15 mph, with occasional gusts at or
above 25 mph. Afternoon RH values in the low lying areas will be 20-
30% through Friday decreasing to 17-25% over the weekend. In the
higher terrain, RH will be around 30 to 50%.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

Public...DVS
Aviation...Edwards
Fire Weather...DVS

Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at
weather.gov/Tucson

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
507 PM MST Fri Jul 18 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0406 PM     Flood            Douglas                 31.34N 109.53W
07/18/2025                   Cochise            AZ   County Official

            Heavy rain resulted in street flooding along
            8th street in Douglas.

&&

JVT

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
619 PM MST Fri Jul 18 2025

AZZ508-509-511-512-190200-
Eastern Cochise County below 5000 feet AZ-Chiricahua Mountains AZ-
Galiuro and Pinaleno Mountains AZ-Upper Gila River Valley AZ-
619 PM MST Fri Jul 18 2025

...AN AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT NORTH CENTRAL COCHISE
AND SOUTHEASTERN GRAHAM COUNTIES UNTIL 7 PM MST...

At 619 PM MST, Doppler radar was tracking an area of strong
thunderstorms along Highway 191 between Interstate-10 north to
Safford, moving north at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 45-50 mph will produce localized areas of
blowing dust, briefly reducing visibility down to 1 mile at times.
Brief heavy rain will also accompany the stronger storms.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
  Safford, Willcox, Thatcher, Solomon, San Jose, Bowie, Roper Lake
  State Park, Safford Regional Airport, Pima, Central, Swift Trail
  Junction and Frye Mesa Dam.

This includes the following highways...
	Route 191 between mile markers 88 and 133.
	Route 70 between mile markers 331 and 359.
	Route 266 between mile markers 105 and 114.
	Interstate 10 between mile markers 342 and 366.
	Route 186 between mile markers 327 and 338.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the weather situation closely and be alert for threatening
weather conditions.

&&

LAT...LON 3243 10984 3298 10983 3267 10923 3219 10954
      3219 10984
TIME...MOT...LOC 0117Z 188DEG 12KT 3257 10958

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

CWR

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
633 PM MST Fri Jul 18 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0616 PM     Dust Storm       1 SW Safford            32.81N 109.71W
07/18/2025                   Graham             AZ   Trained Spotter

            Below quarter mile visibility due to blowing
            dust.

&&

JVT