Wind Advisory 4, NWS Tulsa, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
335 AM CDT Mon Mar 17 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 330 AM CDT Mon Mar 17 2025

  - Significant fire weather concerns today and Tuesday, as gusty
    south to southwest winds develop both days and humidities
    remain low, especially today.

  - Cold front passes Wednesday with a low chance of rain north.
    Strong winds continue Wednesday. Fire weather concerns
    continue despite cooler temperatures.

  - Chance of rain returns next weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 335 AM CDT Mon Mar 17 2025

Grassland fire weather concerns will be the focus today. The
forecast remains consistent with winds strengthening and becoming
gusty soon after sunrise. The strongest gusts may occur as early
as late morning before the low level jet weakens into the
afternoon. The mild start to the day will allow for temps to
quickly warm into the 70s and allow for an early start to
increased fire weather concerns. The forecast will also continue
to favor a drier scenario. Current observations have shown a rise
in dewpoints across the region, however this moisture is very
shallow and once mixing depths increase the expectation is
dewpoints will struggle to rise much further. The resultant
humidity levels will fall into the teens to mid 20 percent range
for much of the region by afternoon.

Numerous controlled burns were noted on Sunday and several of
those burns remain active early this morning per satellite data.
These fires will pose an obvious early day risk should control
measures be exhausted.

A brief lull in wind speeds is likely by early evening however the
low level jet begins to quickly strengthen and becomes strong
across the region tonight. This likely results in potential gusty
winds developing for the overnight hours which will impact any
ongoing fire suppression efforts.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 335 AM CDT Mon Mar 17 2025

Sfc low deepens across SW KS during the day Tuesday ahead of the
next strong wave. The result will be a broad corridor of
strengthening winds across the Plains and wind advisory criteria
appears likely for a large portion of the forecast area.
Temperatures will remain well above normal, however dewpoints will
have increased which may somewhat lower the overall fire weather
risk. The exception remains for areas west of Highway 75 where
the fire weather watch will remain in place. Winds will remain
strong ahead of the cold front which passes Tuesday night through
Wednesday. A low chance of light rain remains across portions of
NE OK and far NW AR but meaningful rainfall amounts are not
likely.

Wednesday is trending toward an even more windy day on the back
side of the deepening sfc cyclone. Wind advisory conditions appear
likely with notably cooler temperatures. Fire weather concerns are
likely to continue given the strong winds and dry post frontal
airmass despite the cooler temperatures.

Thursday is the brief quiet weather day before the sfc pattern
responds to the next wave with increasing southerly winds by
Friday. Fast moving cold front passes late Friday into Friday
night with a low chance of showers. Chances for a more widespread
rainfall footprint return over the weekend as the active pattern
continues.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1246 AM CDT Mon Mar 17 2025

VFR will prevail at all TAF sites through the forecast period.
Southerly winds will increase by mid-morning (12z/7 AM CT),
becoming gusty by late morning (15z/10 AM CT), with gusts up to
30 knots during the afternoon hours, locally higher at times. A
strong low-level jet will come in two rounds during this forecast
cycle. First round will mainly affect the eastern OK TAF sites
around sunrise this morning for a handful of hours through mid-
morning. Second round will be more widespread across eastern OK
and northwest AR occurring sometime around sunset this evening,
once the surface winds decrease some and become less gusty. Low-
level wind shear has been added to the TAFs accordingly.

Mejia

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   80  57  81  48 /   0   0   0  10
FSM   78  53  81  56 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   79  56  80  52 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   81  54  82  44 /   0   0   0  10
FYV   76  54  79  51 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   72  57  76  54 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   78  57  78  50 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   76  58  78  47 /   0   0   0  10
F10   79  59  79  49 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   76  54  77  56 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 10 PM CDT this
     evening for OKZ054>071.

     Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening
     for OKZ054-059-064-065.

AR...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 10 PM CDT this
     evening for ARZ001-010.

&&

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...67

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
505 AM CDT Mon Mar 17 2025

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-181015-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
505 AM CDT Mon Mar 17 2025

...DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY AND POTENTIALLY TUESDAY...

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

SIGNIFICANT WINDS.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and far northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...Mid morning.

FIRE WEATHER DANGER.
	RISK...Significant.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...Mid morning.

DISCUSSION...
Dangerous fire weather conditions are forecast today for much
of northeast Oklahoma extending into portions of far northwest
Arkansas. Fire weather conditions are also a concern further south
across southeast Oklahoma into west central Arkansas. Winds will
increase quickly this morning with periodic gusts of 25 to 40 mph
through mid afternoon. Humidity levels will become very dry by
afternoon as temperatures warm into the mid 70s to around 80.
The combination will lead to dangerous fire weather conditions
with rapid grassland fire spread rates forecast. Avoid fire
starts today especially across northeast Oklahoma and far
northwest Arkansas. Winds will likely remain gusty into the
overnight hours which could impact any ongoing fire suppression
efforts.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Spotter Activation Not Expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.
TUESDAY and WEDNESDAY...Very High Fire Weather and High Wind Potential.
THURSDAY...No Hazards.
FRIDAY...High Fire Weather and High Wind Potential.
SATURDAY and SUNDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
Winds will remain strong on Tuesday along with temperatures well
above normal and fire weather conditions will remain a concern.
Portions of northeast Oklahoma west of Highway 75 will be near
the corridor of lower afternoon humidity values and fire weather
conditions may become dangerous again on Tuesday afternoon.
Otherwise winds will remain strong area wide and a wind advisory
may be needed for portions of the region.
A strong cold front passes Tuesday night and Wednesday. Strong
and gusty northwesterly winds will develop behind the front.
Temperatures will be noticeably cooler however grassland fire
spread rates will remain high through the day Wednesday.
The next storm system impacts the area on Friday with increasing
winds and a chance of thunderstorms returns by next weekend.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.