Wind Advisory 11, NWS Tulsa, OK

988 
WWUS74 KTSA 201805
NPWTSA

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
105 PM CDT Mon Oct 20 2025

OKZ054>064-201915-
/O.EXP.KTSA.WI.Y.0011.000000T0000Z-251020T1800Z/
Osage-Washington OK-Nowata-Craig-Ottawa-Pawnee-Tulsa-Rogers-Mayes-
Delaware-Creek-
Including the cities of Claremore, Jay, Pryor, Pawnee, Tulsa,
Grove, Bartlesville, Pawhuska, Vinita, Sapulpa, Miami, and Nowata
105 PM CDT Mon Oct 20 2025

...WIND ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED...

Wind speeds across northeast Oklahoma will continue to gradually 
diminish, with gusts mostly remaining blow 40 mph for the remainder 
of the afternoon.

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
614 PM CDT Sun Oct 19 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1225 PM CDT Sun Oct 19 2025

 - Decreasing winds and cooler temperatures today.

 - Gusty south winds return Monday morning and early afternoon,
resulting in limited fire weather danger, before a dry cold front
passes through Monday afternoon.

 - Seasonable temperatures are expected Tue-Sun, with rain likely
for the end of the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight )
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Sun Oct 19 2025

Northerly winds continue to diminish this morning as transient
surface high passes over the region. By late this afternoon,
eastern OK will already be on the back side of the high, with winds
switching back to southerly direction. Otherwise a beautiful fall
afternoon with dry air and temps warming into the upper 60s/low 70s
most areas with abundant sunshine.

During the night south winds will continue to pick up, initially
across northeast OK then elsewhere toward morning. Will see another
chilly night from southeast OK into northwest AR with 40s for lows,
while temps will likely bottom out in the 50s early across northeast
OK, then remain near steady or slowly rise.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Sunday)
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Sun Oct 19 2025

As the surface gradient quickly tightens by Monday morning, winds
will become gusty out of the south early. Given the expected
strength of the 850mb flow, areas mainly NW of I-44 may see some
gusts approaching 40 mph for at least a few hours into early
afternoon. Generally expect gusts in the 25-35 mph range elsewhere.
As another cold front approaches Monday afternoon the gradient will
weaken and winds decrease. Initially rather dry airmass with dew
points in the 30s will eventually moisten to some degree, but not
before RH drops below 30% for most areas as temps warm notably into
the 80s across eastern OK. Thus locations in NE OK west of Highway
75 will see a few hours of enhanced fire spread potential, with
yesterday's rainfall tempering conditions elsewhere.

Front expected to arrive in NE OK after 18z and be through the
forecast area by a little after 00z with a dry passage and winds
shifting to northwest, with a few gusts in the 20-25 mph range
possible. Dry and cooler conditions follow Tuesday with a chilly
start to Wednesday, followed by slight warm up Wednesday afternoon.

Next system currently cut off in the eastern Pacific will eventually
merge with a northern wave and move slowly inland, reaching the
Southern Plains by Thursday. Moisture return in advance of the slow
moving trough should be sufficient for widespread rain and chances by
Thursday night and Friday. Given forecast PWAT values AOA 90th
percentile, heavy rainfall is possible. Severe weather threat
uncertain at this time. Rain chances linger into Saturday with mild
temperatues through Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 612 PM CDT Sun Oct 19 2025

VFR conditions are forecast. Winds increase overnight with
widespread swath of LLWS forecast through mid morning across the
region. Gusty south winds area wide late morning through the
afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   54  84  50  73 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   47  82  53  74 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   52  84  51  76 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   48  83  44  71 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   45  77  44  69 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   47  75  48  66 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   50  83  49  73 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   48  78  45  68 /   0   0   0   0
F10   50  84  48  75 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   48  83  57  76 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...07

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
122 PM CDT Sun Oct 19 2025

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-201015-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
122 PM CDT Sun Oct 19 2025

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected through tonight.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Spotter Activation Not Expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.
MONDAY...High Wind Potential.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...No Hazards.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...Thunderstorm and Heavy Rain Potential.
SATURDAY...No Hazards.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
Strong, gusty southerly winds will develop early Monday morning and
continue through much of the day Monday, ahead of another approaching
cold front that will push through the area late Monday afternoon and
evening. Wind gusts of 30 to 40 mph will be common late Monday morning
into the afternoon ahead of the front. Behind the front, cooler and
tranquil weather will occur Tuesday and Wednesday before another
storm system approaches late in the week with increased storm chances
and heavy rain possible.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.