Special Weather Statement, NWS Tulsa, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
134 PM CDT Fri May 23 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 130 PM CDT Fri May 23 2025

  - Scattered storms through evening with increasing coverage late
    tonight primarily NE OK into NW AR. Severe potential may
    increase overnight.

  - Thunderstorms ongoing Saturday morning with increasing severe
    risk develop Saturday afternoon and evening. Heavy rainfall
    accumulations steadily increase.

  - Widespread showers and storms Sunday through Sunday night and
    may persist through the day Monday. Severe weather potential
    remains. Flooding likely to be ongoing by Monday.

  - Concern increasing for a rather widespread heavy rainfall
    footprint through Monday across portions of E OK and NW AR.
    The holiday weekend will have many outdoor activities and the
    prolonged heavy rainfall potential may expose many to
    increasing flood risk. Flood safety awareness will be a focus.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight)
Issued at 130 PM CDT Fri May 23 2025

Ongoing cluster of strong to severe storms across north central
OK will continue eastward and is the immediate near term focus.
Storms will continue to move away from the stronger instability
corridor so severe risk is likely to remain isolated. With time
the low level jet will intensify and veer into the NW-SE oriented
elevated frontal zone with an expanding coverage of precip during
the overnight hours. This corridor is likely to be in or near the
far NE OK to far NW AR zone. Heavy rains will accumulate during
this time frame as storm motions align with the focusing boundary.
An eventual upscale growth into strong clusters and/or potential
MCS development would mark an uptick in severe potential. Should
this evolution occur then late tonight into Saturday morning would
be the favored timeframe. This scenario would also focus a
stronger outflow further southwest across E OK into SW AR.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Friday)
Issued at 130 PM CDT Fri May 23 2025

Convective evolution tonight will impact storm placement and
potential severity into Sat afternoon. Expect a strongly unstable
airmass along and south of the early day storm outflow by Sat
afternoon with a sharpening dryline across western OK. Both
boundaries will be a focus for renewed storm development with
increasing storm coverage into Sat night as upglide again
strengthens. The combination and likelihood of multiple corridors
of stronger storms will yield multiple axis of heavy rains through
Saturday night.

Sunday into Sunday night continue to appear the as the most
widespread convective coverage as a deeper synoptic boundary moves
slowly southward into the region. Severe potential may remain
especially for areas that destabilize sufficiently by Sunday
afternoon ahead of the front. Also, the flooding potential will
continue to trend higher and guidance continues to favor NE OK
into NW AR as the zone of heaviest rainfall totals through Monday.
The holiday weekend will likely expose many to the increasing
flooding risk and flood safety messaging will remain a focus.

The widespread heaviest rains likely end on Monday however the
slow moving trough axis will maintain precip chances into Tuesday.
A brief dry period is possible by mid week. A return of northwesterly
flow aloft would lead toward a more unsettled period by late next
week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1221 PM CDT Fri May 23 2025

In the short term, conditions are mostly quiet with VFR conditions
for all locations. An area of showers and thunderstorms is moving
into northeast OK. For now, handled this with PROB30s for the next
few hours, but will refine forecasts as needed. These storms would
produce brief heavy rain, occasional lightning, and gusty winds.

Ceilings will fill in and lower this evening and overnight,
eventually settling at 1.5- 3 kft tomorrow morning. Meanwhile,
several rounds of showers and thunderstorms will impact the area.
All terminals will have some storm potential, but the highest
will be for terminals north of I-40. These storms may be stronger,
bringing gusty erratic winds, heavy rain or hail, and frequent
lightning. Visibility reductions are likely under any storms.
These adverse conditions will continue into the day Saturday. As
with the short term, the current TAFs are somewhat generic as
confidence is low in specific outcomes, but will be updated as
confidence increases with time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   64  79  65  80 /  70  80  80  80
FSM   65  80  67  83 /  60  80  50  70
MLC   68  84  70  86 /  30  40  40  50
BVO   59  76  61  75 /  80  80  90  80
FYV   60  76  62  77 /  80  90  80  90
BYV   58  74  61  72 /  90  80  90  90
MKO   64  79  65  81 /  60  70  60  70
MIO   60  75  62  72 /  90  80  90  90
F10   64  81  67  83 /  50  60  60  70
HHW   70  84  71  88 /  10  20  20  30

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flood Watch from 1 AM CDT Saturday through Monday evening for
     OKZ054>072.

AR...Flood Watch from 1 AM CDT Saturday through Monday evening for
     ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020.

&&

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...06

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
304 PM CDT Fri May 23 2025

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-241030-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
304 PM CDT Fri May 23 2025

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.
TORNADO.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Northeast OK.
	ONSET...Late Tonight.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...Elevated.
	AREA...Northeast OK/Northwest AR.
    ONSET...Late Evening.

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Northeast OK/Northwest AR.
	ONSET...Late Tonight.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Northeast OK/Northwest AR.
	ONSET...Late Evening.

DISCUSSION...
A few showers and thunderstorms will continue into the afternoon
and evening. An isolated severe storm is possible but not
expected. A better chance for severe weather will ramp up
overnight, especially towards dawn. Within these storms large
hail, damaging winds and isolated tornadoes may occur. Severe
weather is possible anywhere, but will focus north of I-40. Areas
of heavy rain may result in localized flash flooding as well. A
Flood Watch is in effect.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Activation of the Regional Spotter Network Likely.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.
SATURDAY...Thunderstorm Potential...Heavy Rain Potential.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...Severe Thunderstorm Potential...Heavy Rain Potential.
TUESDAY TO THURSDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
Stormy weather persists through the weekend with thunderstorms,
some of which may be severe, continuing daily through at least
Monday. Presumably the risk of severe weather will start to
diminish with time as instability is used up, but it will not
completely subside at any point in the forecast. Due to the
repeated rounds of heavy rainfall, flash and river flooding is
likely. Flooding concerns become significant by Sunday and Monday
with at least moderate level flooding possible on some rivers.
More isolated showers and storms continue into the middle of next
week with lingering flooding likely.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
216 PM CDT Fri May 23 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0757 PM     Tornado          3 NW Huntsville         36.12N 93.78W
05/19/2025                   Madison            AR   NWS Storm Survey

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
Issued by National Weather Service Norman OK
350 PM CDT Fri May 23 2025

OKZ054-055-232115-
Osage OK-Washington OK-
350 PM CDT Fri May 23 2025

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of east central Osage
and central Washington Counties through 415 PM CDT...

At 350 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Bartlesville Municipal Airport, moving east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Bartlesville, Dewey, and Bartlesville Municipal Airport.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3664 9581 3667 9608 3677 9609 3683 9581
TIME...MOT...LOC 2050Z 264DEG 26KT 3673 9600

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

..speg.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
Issued by National Weather Service Norman OK
357 PM CDT Fri May 23 2025

OKZ060-061-232130-
Tulsa OK-Rogers OK-
357 PM CDT Fri May 23 2025

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of west central Rogers
and northeastern Tulsa Counties through 430 PM CDT...

At 357 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Owasso, moving east at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Claremore, Owasso, Skiatook, Verdigris, Sperry, Tiawah, and Turley.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3625 9598 3633 9598 3640 9555 3622 9554
TIME...MOT...LOC 2057Z 264DEG 28KT 3630 9589

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

..speg.

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