Severe Thunderstorm Warning 51, NWS Tulsa, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
445 AM CDT Fri Apr 4 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 345 AM CDT Fri Apr 4 2025

  - Strong/severe storms possible early this morning and becoming
    more likely this afternoon, especially from southeast Oklahoma
    into western Arkansas.

  - High rain chances continue through Saturday, with heavy rain
    and flood potential increasing across southeast Oklahoma and
    western Arkansas.

  - Much cooler weather arrives this weekend, with rain possibly
    changing to snow late Saturday night into Sunday morning north
    of Interstate 40. A freeze is expected in some places Monday
    morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 345 AM CDT Fri Apr 4 2025

Widespread showers and thunderstorms will overspread the area
early this morning, with the potential for large hail with the
strongest storms. A second round of showers and storms is expected
this afternoon, with the strongest storms at that time from far
southeast and eastern Oklahoma into western Arkansas. The stalled
frontal boundary just southeast of the area at this time may lift
a bit north ahead of this second round of storms, and any
locations that end up south of the boundary will have an all
hazard severe threat, with large hail, damaging winds, and
tornadoes all possible with this second round of storms.

Heavy rainfall will also be a concern, especially from southeast
Oklahoma into northwest Arkansas, where a flood watch remains in
effect.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Thursday)
Issued at 345 AM CDT Fri Apr 4 2025

A relative lull in precipitation coverage and intensity is
expected for much of tonight before the next round of showers,
storms, and heavy rainfall moves in late tonight and early
Saturday morning. The severe weather threat will likely be a bit
lower by this time as the frontal boundary will have sagged
farther southeast overnight. Once again the heaviest rainfall will
be from southeast Oklahoma into northwest Arkansas with this round
of precipitation.

As the main upper system moves across late Saturday night and
early Sunday morning  rain may mix with or change to snow across
parts of northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas. With surface
temperatures likely to remain several degrees above freezing,
little or no snow accumulation is expected. With skies clearing by
Sunday night, some places will fall to near or below freezing by
early Monday morning.

An extended period of quiet weather is then expected next week,
with temperatures warming back above normal for much of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1243 AM CDT Fri Apr 4 2025

Flying conditions remain poor to very poor through the forecast
period across all sites. MVFR cigs have expanded to much of the
area, likely falling to IFR by the early morning hours. IFR cigs
are expected to persist for the remainder of the period. Several
chances of showers and thunderstorms expected over the next 24
hours... especially across SE OK and NW AR sites. Thunderstorm
activity appears to be strongest/ most widespread between 10-15z
and again 20-02z. Storms during these time frames may be severe
with large hail and gusty, erratic winds. Vsbys are likely to drop
considerably during heaviest rainfall. Precipitation will tend to
dwindle after 02z, before increasing again shortly after the
forecast period. Outside of thunderstorm activity, north/northeast
winds near 5-15 kts expected for much of the period, except
across far SE OK/ W-Central AR where a warm front may promote a
temporary wind shift this morning/ afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   56  46  49  35 / 100  60 100  80
FSM   68  53  55  40 / 100  90 100  80
MLC   60  48  52  38 / 100  90 100  80
BVO   54  44  49  35 / 100  50  90  70
FYV   65  47  50  36 / 100  90 100  80
BYV   63  47  49  35 / 100  90 100  80
MKO   59  48  51  36 / 100  80 100  80
MIO   55  45  47  35 / 100  70 100  70
F10   56  47  50  35 / 100  80 100  80
HHW   68  52  55  40 /  90 100 100  70

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flood Watch through Sunday morning for OKZ049-053-063-068>076.

AR...Flood Watch through Sunday morning for ARZ001-002-010-011-019-
     020-029.

&&

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...43

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
508 AM CDT Fri Apr 4 2025

OKZ049-053-041100-
Choctaw OK-Pushmataha OK-
508 AM CDT Fri Apr 4 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN PUSHMATAHA AND
CENTRAL CHOCTAW COUNTIES THROUGH 600 AM CDT...

At 508 AM CDT, Doppler radar indicated a strong thunderstorm 5 miles
northwest of Pat Mayse Lake, moving north at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down small tree limbs and blow
         around unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation
         is possible.

Locations in or near the path include...
Ord...                            Grant...
Corinne...                        Kent...
Soper...                          Rattan...
Fallon...                         Sobol...
Goodland...                       Sawyer...
Messer...                         Hugo Lake State Park...
Apple...                          Speer...
Dela...                           Hugo...
Kellond...                        Oleta...
Antlers...                        Gay...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1100 AM CDT for
southeastern Oklahoma.

&&

LAT...LON 3432 9573 3419 9521 3387 9550 3389 9551
      3388 9554 3393 9556 3393 9559 3394 9560
      3393 9560 3391 9564 3391 9567 3388 9570
      3390 9575 3387 9577
TIME...MOT...LOC 1008Z 198DEG 35KT 3391 9564

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

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