Severe Thunderstorm Warning 490, NWS Tulsa, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
641 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025

  - The threat for severe thunderstorms will increase by mid
    afternoon across much of eastern Oklahoma and western
    Arkansas, including a threat for very large hail, tornadoes
    and damaging winds. The threat will diminish by early
    Wednesday morning.

  - Heavy rainfall potential will continue through early
    Wednesday morning, with a threat for localized flooding across
    most of the area.

  - Temperatures drop below normal mid week, rising back above
    normal by early next week with dry conditions.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight )
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025

Severe weather and flooding threats through early Wednesday
morning dominate the weather concerns for this forecast. Showers
and thunderstorms persist across northeast Oklahoma and far
northwest Arkansas at midday, with the heavy rainfall so far
having focused in this same area. Radar estimates a solid area of
1 to 2 inch amounts with highly localized totals around 3 inches
in Benton and Carroll counties. Cloud tops have begun to cool once
again with the ongoing activity near the Kansas and Missouri
border that has been moving to the south and east on the nose of
the low level jet and will largely pose a continued heavy rain
threat before moving out within the next couple of hours.

Development is ongoing in the vicinity of the cold front, as far
southwest as the OKC metro, with this boundary increasingly
becoming the focus for thunderstorms during the remainder of the
afternoon and evening. CAMs continue to perform reasonably well
with timing and evolution with what has occurred in the past 12
hours or so, including the aforementioned rejuvenation ongoing in
northwest Arkansas. While the threat will begin in northeast
Oklahoma and parts of northwest Arkansas, it will shift
southeastward with time into the late evening hours before
diminishing after midnight.

Very high instability is already present across most of the area
roughly along and to the south of Highway 412 with lower values to
the north due to the ongoing and persistent cloud cover and
showers/storms to the north of a quasi-stationary boundary. Low
level shear parameters continue to focus across parts of far
northeast and east central Oklahoma and into western Arkansas,
with the northern edge of the main resulting tornado threat marked
by the aforementioned boundary. With time, there should be an
evolution toward a more linear mode, especially into the evening
hours.

Toward midnight and into early Wednesday morning, more elevated
storm development may occur, featuring a low but nonzero severe
weather potential.

The Flood Watch has been trimmed across northeast Oklahoma, with
the bulk of the remaining heavy rain focused across far eastern
Oklahoma and western Arkansas. Precipitable water values around 2
inches are centered in northeast Oklahoma and into northwest
Arkansas, which is approaching the seasonal maximum.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Tuesday)
Issued at 1242 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025

The front should have cleared the area by daybreak Wednesday,
although additional showers and thunderstorms are expected until
the main trough axis pushes through the region. Noticeably cooler
temperatures will be on deck for Wednesday and Thursday in the
wake of the front. The eastern edge of the upper level ridge will
expand northeastward into area to close out the work week and open
the upcoming weekend, leading to dry weather and a gradual
increase in temperatures, especially during the daytime. Into next
week, the area will largely remain between weather systems,
increasing the likelihood of a fairly prolonged period of less
active weather than we are currently experiencing.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 639 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025

Showers and thunderstorms will be coming to an end later this
evening, with ceilings lowering to IFR in most places overnight.
Conditions will be slow to improve during the day Wednesday, with
ceilings likely raising to MVFR by afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   66  77  60  79 /  30  30  10   0
FSM   70  80  64  81 /  80  20  10  10
MLC   66  79  60  79 /  70  20   0  10
BVO   63  74  56  78 /  20  40  10   0
FYV   64  76  57  77 /  80  30  20  10
BYV   66  76  59  76 /  80  40  30  20
MKO   66  78  60  78 /  60  20  10  10
MIO   65  74  58  77 /  50  50  20  10
F10   64  79  59  78 /  50  20   0   0
HHW   69  79  61  78 /  70  30   0  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flood Watch through Wednesday morning for OKZ056>058-060>063-
     065>072-074-076.

AR...Flood Watch through Wednesday morning for ARZ001-002-010-011-019-
     020-029.

&&

SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM....22
AVIATION...05

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
541 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-241000-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
541 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025

...SEVERE WEATHER AND FLOODING THREATS CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT...

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.
TORNADO.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Mainly Southeast of Interstate 44.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...Elevated.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...Elevated.
	AREA...Mainly near East of Highway 75.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...Elevated.
	AREA...Mainly near and East of Highway 75.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

DISCUSSION...
A line of strong to severe thunderstorms is ongoing from west
central Arkansas into southeast Oklahoma late this afternoon.
Damaging winds, large hail, and isolated tornadoes remain possible
as this line of storms shifts southeast early this evening, with
the greatest tornado threat across far eastern Oklahoma into west
central Arkansas.

A few storms have also developed near a surface low and cold front
near the Interstate 44 corridor in northeast Oklahoma. Isolated
severe weather will be possible with these storms into the evening
hours, with damaging winds, large hail, and perhaps a brief
tornado possible.

Heavy rainfall will also occur with the storms, with a flash flood
threat continuing this evening into the overnight hours, mainly
near and east of Highway 75.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Activation of the Regional Spotter Network Likely.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.
WEDNESDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
THURSDAY through MONDAY...No Hazards.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
Scattered thunderstorms will again be possible during the day
Wednesday as an upper level low moves overhead. Severe weather
chances will be low with this activity, but some hail and gusty
winds may accompany some of the strongest storms Wednesday
afternoon across northeast Oklahoma into northwest Arkansas.

After Wednesday, the pattern will be quiet with temperatures
around the seasonal normals and drier weather expected through
the rest of the week.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PLANNING STATEMENT...
Emergency managers and area first responders should monitor the
latest information this evening. Given recent rains in some
areas, and the potential for excessive rains through tonight,
preparations for more widespread flooding issues may need to
happen.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
638 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025

OKZ062-063-068-240015-
Cherokee OK-Delaware OK-Mayes OK-
638 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN DELAWARE...
SOUTHEASTERN MAYES AND NORTHEASTERN CHEROKEE COUNTIES THROUGH 715 PM
CDT...

At 637 PM CDT, Doppler radar indicated a strong thunderstorm 3 miles
south of Locust Grove, moving east at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor hail damage to vegetation is possible.

Locations in or near the path include...
Leach...                          Scraper...
Peggs...                          Twin Oaks...
Rose...                           Murphy...
Locust Grove...                   Oaks...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for northeastern
and east central Oklahoma.

&&

LAT...LON 3619 9479 3616 9479 3616 9480 3592 9480
      3612 9529 3625 9523
TIME...MOT...LOC 2337Z 286DEG 28KT 3615 9517

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...<30 MPH

69

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
646 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025

OKZ076-240015-
Le Flore OK-
646 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN LE FLORE COUNTY
THROUGH 715 PM CDT...

At 646 PM CDT, Doppler radar indicated a strong thunderstorm 8 miles
east of Talimena State Park, moving east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down small tree limbs and blow
         around unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation
         is possible.

Locations in or near the path include...
Heavener...                       Hodgen...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for southeastern
Oklahoma.

&&

LAT...LON 3471 9491 3489 9488 3490 9445 3469 9445
      3463 9446
TIME...MOT...LOC 2346Z 275DEG 25KT 3480 9481

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

Mejia

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