Severe Thunderstorm Warning 448, NWS Tulsa, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
128 PM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 128 PM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025

 - Storm chances/coverage is expected to ramp up this afternoon
   and tonight. There will be some uptick in severe weather
   potential, as well as locally heavy rainfall potential.

 - Storm chances shift to the east by Friday afternoon, before
   ramping back up this weekend in association with another
   passing wave.

 - A pattern change is expected next week which will lead to
   cooler, cloudier and wetter weather.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through Friday morning)
Issued at 128 PM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025

WV imagery clearly depicts an advancing shortwave trough, with a
PV max rotating around the basal portion of the trough over the SW
KS/NW OK border region. Lift in advance of the system and its weak
associated front is forcing a band of elevated showers and a few
storms stretching from eastern KS down toward central/west-central
OK. The latest runs of the HRRR suggest either that this activity
gradually strengthens or new more surface-based development
occurs just ahead of it as it lifts east-northeast into the Ozarks
this afternoon and evening. Increasing flow aloft suggests that
some storm organization is possible, with damaging winds and hail
the main threats. Ahead of this activity, more diurnally-driven
isolated to scattered storms are developing in the terrain areas
of NW AR and SE OK, much like what we've seen the past few days.
Localized damaging downbursts and some hail could occur with the
stronger cells, much like the past few days. Locally heavy
rainfall is also expected with these slow-moving storms.

Looking farther ahead to around and after midnight, several CAMs
show scattered redevelopment of showers and storms roughly US
412/I-44 southward near the front and with the passage of the
upper trough axis. This activity will generally spread
east/southeast through Friday morning. PoPs were increased during
this time frame given consistent signal.

Lacy

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday afternoon through Thursday)
Issued at 128 PM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025

Storm chances shift mostly east of the region by Friday afternoon
with the passage of the upper trough, and most of Friday night
looks quiet. Toward Saturday morning, there is a waa/isentropic
lift signal possibly from the northward retreat of what's left of
the aforementioned front in response to a passing wave to our
north and have inserted low PoPs over the model blend's (NBM) dry
forecast across NE OK/NW AR. Another passing wave will keep
rain/storm chances in the forecast thru the remainder of the
weekend.

As mentioned yesterday, a pattern change is expected going into
next week, though details still have some uncertainty. A strong
cross-Pacific jet will punch into NWrn NOAM by early next week,
with the bulk of the energy going into Canada on the northern
stream. A split-flow blocking pattern is then expected to develop
to its south over the CONUS, as an upper low develops in the
weaker southern stream (possibly also merging with the
subtropical jet) somewhere over the central part of the country.
The evolution of this upper low has been difficult for the models
to handle, as is typically the case. The 00Z suite of ensemble
data has become more clustered over the solution of an upper low
developing over the central Plains the first part of next week.
That said, there are still other less likely scenarios that still
carry a meaningful percentage of ensemble solutions such as upper
low no dig and upper low dig farther west. This forecast will
follow the more likely scenarios which is more closely aligned
with the recent deterministic and NBM guidance. However, this is
subject to change since outlier solutions do occasionally pan out.
As such, a trend toward cooler/cloudier/wetter weather can be
expected next week with the initial front arriving Monday night
into Tuesday.

Lacy

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 128 PM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025

Ongoing convection at the beginning of the TAF period will impact
KBVO and KFYV with likely impacts at remainder of northwest AR
terminals by 21Z as diurnal convection develops and spreads north.
Early activity will also threaten remainder of TAF sites in
northeast OK as elevated showers become more surface-based with
thunder with afternoon heating. Expect reductions in categories
where stronger convection passes within the airspace along with
variable and gusty winds otherwise VFR conditions will persist.
Attempted to time second round of showers and low thunder chances
as main shortwave passes through the region after 07Z. Both
statistical and deterministic guidance suggests low clouds or fog
threat at KBVO in the wake of the rainfall so included a TEMPO
group 12-15Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   66  87  68  87 /  60  10  20  40
FSM   68  89  68  91 /  50  40  20  20
MLC   65  88  66  91 /  70  40  10  20
BVO   61  84  63  86 /  50  10  20  40
FYV   63  85  61  87 /  60  40  20  20
BYV   63  83  63  84 /  60  50  20  20
MKO   65  87  67  89 /  70  30  20  30
MIO   63  84  63  84 /  50  20  20  30
F10   64  87  66  89 /  70  20  20  30
HHW   67  88  66  89 /  50  40   0  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...24

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
154 PM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-191030-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
154 PM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Western Arkansas.
    ONSET...Ongoing...ending by mid-evening.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Western Arkansas and Southeast Oklahoma.
	ONSET...Ongoing...ending by early evening. After midnight south of highway 412.

DISCUSSION...

Isolated to scattered storms have developed mainly in the terrain
of western Arkansas and southeast Oklahoma this afternoon. Like
previous days, these storms will be short-lived and slow-moving
but could produce very localized damaging downburst winds and some
hail. This activity should die off after sunset. Locally heavy
rainfall is expected with these slow-moving storms.

Other storms are expected to develop across northeast Oklahoma and
far northwest Arkansas ahead of a front and upper disturbance this
afternoon and evening. These storms will yield a limited severe
risk with damaging winds and hail the main threats.

Another round of scattered showers and storms is expected to
develop south of I-44 from central and northeast Oklahoma into
northwest Arkansas after midnight tonight, and spread across
east-central and southeast Oklahoma and west-central Arkansas into
early Friday morning. Locally heavy rainfall is the main threat
with these storms.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Local Spotter Activation May Be Needed.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.
FRIDAY through SUNDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
MONDAY...Thunderstorm...Heavy Rain Potential.
TUESDAY and WEDNESDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

Storm potential shifts mostly east of the region by Friday
afternoon in the wake of an upper wave, with quiet weather
expected to last into Friday night. By early Saturday, isolated
thunderstorms may develop across northeast Oklahoma into northwest
Arkansas. Another round of storms is expected over the weekend
with another passing wave. Finally, a pattern change is expected
to occur next week which will force a cold front into the region
by Monday night or Tuesday. An increased chance of storms will
accompany this front. These storms will be capable of producing
locally heavy rainfall.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
233 PM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025

OKZ076-182000-
Le Flore OK-
233 PM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN LE FLORE COUNTY
THROUGH 300 PM CDT...

At 233 PM CDT, Doppler radar indicated a strong thunderstorm near
Poteau, moving southeast at 5 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down small tree limbs and blow
         around unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation
         is possible.

Locations in or near the path include...
Poteau...                         Shady Point...
Panama...                         Howe...
Cameron...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3502 9478 3519 9469 3511 9448 3492 9459
TIME...MOT...LOC 1933Z 293DEG 5KT 3506 9465

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH