Severe Thunderstorm Warning 443, NWS Tulsa, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1235 PM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1140 AM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025

 - Above average temperatures continue today and Wednesday with
   low to medium /10-40 percent/ shower/storm chances each
   afternoon.

-  Weak frontal boundary moves in late Wednesday through the end
   of the week bringing increasing rain chances and slightly
   cooler temperatures

 - At least low shower and storm chances linger into the weekend
   as various disturbances move nearby the local region.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight)
Issued at 1140 AM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025

Similar to previous days, increasing coverage of showers and
storms is expected this afternoon. Better coverage is forecast
across western Arkansas, but the whole area will see chances for
isolated convection during the afternoon hours today. Severe
chances remain low, but a couple of strong storms could occur,
with gusty downburst winds and brief heavy downpours. Temperatures
this afternoon will also be similar to previous days, with highs
topping out in the low to mid 90s across the region. Persistence
continues this evening and overnight, with diminishing rain
chances after sunset and mild overnight lows in the mid 60s to
lower 70s.

Bowlan

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Tuesday)
Issued at 1140 AM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025

A bit of a pattern change begins on Wednesday as a broad upper
low begins to drop south over the Northern and Central Plains and
become "cutoff" from the main jet activity to the north in
Canada. This low will meander over the Plains for the next several
days and force a weak cold front into the region by late
Wednesday into Thursday as a wave rotates around the parent upper
low. Temperatures and rain chances are expected to be similar on
Wednesday afternoon as has been the case for the past several
days, with a possible uptick in chances near the OK/KS border as
the frontal boundary approaches.

More widespread convection is expected to spread from north to
south from late Wednesday night through Thursday night as the
influence of the surface boundary and upper level disturbance
becomes more focused over the area. Thursday looks to be the
coolest day of the week as more cloud cover and precip will be
noted throughout the day. Highs will likely stay in the low to mid
80s during the afternoon, with some 70s possible where rain
lingers for much of the day. The weak front/outflow will
gradually wash out/lose definition by Friday, though continued
cloud cover and at least scattered rain chances will help keep
temps slightly cooler but still near to above normal for mid
September.

Unsettled weather continues through the weekend as upper level
troughing remains in the vicinity and plentiful moisture remains
entrenched through the Southern Plains. It won't rain at all
times, but at least low chances for showers and storms are
forecast everyday through the period. Guidance has come into
better agreement with a more notable storm system and potentially
stronger cold front affecting the area early next week, but timing
and evolution remain in flux at this range.

Bowlan

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025

Isolated to widely scattered convection is forecast again this
afternoon into early evening for the CWA, with the greater
potential across northwest Arkansas. Thus, will continue with
Prob30 groups for timing for northwest Arkansas TAF sites and hold
off on mentioning in eastern Oklahoma TAF sites due to uncertainty
of coverage impacting any one terminal. Gusty to locally strong
winds and a brief heavy rain threat are possible within any
thunderstorm development. Additional shower/storm chances return
at the end of the period with higher chances just outside this
period. Cloud cover through the period should remain mostly
scattered/broken high clouds with periods of mid clouds this
afternoon. Early morning Wednesday a period of IFR/MVFR visibility
looks to again develop for KFYV and KBVO, and have added tempo
groups for timing. Otherwise, VFR conditions are forecast for the
period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   69  92  69  84 /  20  20  30  50
FSM   70  94  69  90 /  20  20  10  30
MLC   67  93  68  89 /  20  20  10  50
BVO   64  90  65  84 /  20  20  40  60
FYV   64  91  64  87 /  20  20  10  40
BYV   65  91  65  87 /  20  20  10  40
MKO   67  92  68  87 /  20  20  20  40
MIO   66  91  66  84 /  20  20  30  50
F10   67  92  67  87 /  20  20  20  50
HHW   68  91  68  90 /  20  20  10  30

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...20

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1245 PM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-171015-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
1245 PM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

THUNDERSTORMS WITH DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Western Arkansas.
	ONSET...This Morning West of Highway 75...This Afternoon Elsewhere.

DISCUSSION...
Additional isolated to scattered thunderstorms will develop
across eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas mid to late afternoon
and continue into early evening. Organized severe weather is not
expected, but the strongest storms will be capable of producing
gusty winds and brief heavy downpours.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Spotter Activation Not Expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected through
the remainder of the work week, through the weekend and into early
next week, as an upper level trough lingers across the central
United States. Although a very low chance of severe weather will
exist at times, heavy rain and localized flooding potential
currently looks to be a bigger threat.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
411 PM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025

OKZ058-162145-
Ottawa OK-
411 PM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN OTTAWA COUNTY
THROUGH 445 PM CDT...

At 411 PM CDT, Doppler radar indicated a strong thunderstorm 3 miles
southeast of Quapaw, moving west at 5 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down small tree limbs and blow
         around unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation
         is possible.

Locations in or near the path include...
Picher...                         Cardin...
Peoria...                         Commerce...
Ottawa...                         Quapaw...
Miami...                          Treece...
Baxter Springs...

This includes Interstate 44 between mile markers 304 and 323.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3683 9464 3679 9492 3700 9492 3700 9463
TIME...MOT...LOC 2111Z 091DEG 5KT 3693 9473

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Mejia

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
419 PM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025

ARZ002-162145-
Carroll AR-
419 PM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN CARROLL COUNTY
THROUGH 445 PM CDT...

At 418 PM CDT, Doppler radar indicated a strong thunderstorm near
Eureka Springs, moving southwest at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down small tree limbs and blow
         around unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation
         is possible.

Locations in or near the path include...
Berryville...                     Beaver...
Grandview...                      Oak Hill...
Eureka Springs...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3637 9356 3630 9373 3630 9379 3631 9380
      3640 9387 3644 9387 3650 9373 3650 9366
TIME...MOT...LOC 2118Z 056DEG 17KT 3641 9370

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH