Severe Thunderstorm Warning 435, NWS Tulsa, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1254 PM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1209 AM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025

 - Dangerous heat persists areawide today, and for southeast OK on Wednesday.

 - A cold front moves into/through the region tonight and
   Wednesday bringing increasing shower and thunderstorm chances
   as well as somewhat cooler air.

 - Another cold front is forecast late weekend into next week with
   increased rain chances and well below normal temperatures
   expected.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight )
Issued at 1248 PM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025

Upper level ridging is now well to the west of the area, but a very
hot lower level thermal profile remains in place. Heat indices will
peak this afternoon at 105-110 F for most of the area. Decent
instability with some weak forcing from an approaching shortwave
trough will kick off isolated showers and storms this afternoon
and evening, particularly across the higher terrain and near the
KS border. Storm activity will spread south into the rest of the
area this evening or overnight but coverage will remain scattered
(10-40% chance). A few storms could become marginally severe with
damaging wind gusts and locally heavy rainfall. Low temperatures
tonight will remain mild, mostly in the 70s, but will be somewhat
cooler than this morning as cooler air filters in from the north.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Tuesday)
Issued at 1248 PM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025

The cold front will continue pushing south Wednesday. Northern areas
will be mostly dry, with only a 10-20% chance of a shower or
thunderstorm Wednesday. High temperatures will drop to the upper 80s
to low 90s as cold air advection increases slightly. There will be a
better chance of precipitation further south (closer to the front).
High temperatures and heat indices will cool slightly from today for
areas near I-40 and south, but remain high enough to justify one
final Heat Advisory. Though this should be the last one for now.
Conditions will then dry out for the remainder of the week with
temperatures running near or a bit below normal. Rain chances will
generally remain 15% or less until the weekend.

By next Sunday an anomalously deep trough will dive into the eastern
USA. It will weaken and further displace the high pressure area to
the west. Significantly cooler air will move in, with conditions
perhaps feeling more like late September or early October than late
August. Highs will fall into the 70s to low 80s, possibly lower.
With high PWAT due to robust moisture transport along the low level
jet, sufficient instability, and good upper level forcing, rain
chances will likely rise considerably. There is good ensemble
support for multiple rounds of widespread (and possibly heavy
rainfall). With that said there is timing uncertainty as well as
uncertainty with respect to the areas where rain will focus. For
that reason, Pops are still mostly below 50%. Either way, this will
be a substantial change from the weather seen lately.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025

Scattered thunderstorms will re-develop through this afternoon,
potentially with greater coverage across NW AR and eventually SE
OK through early evening. Strong downdraft winds may occur with
strongest cells along with substantial short-duration reduction in
visibility. Overall activity should diminish overnight with VFR
conditions prevailing outside of direct storm impacts.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   74  94  72  92 /  20  20   0   0
FSM   75  96  74  94 /  30  30  10  10
MLC   74  95  71  92 /  30  20  10  10
BVO   69  93  66  91 /  20  10   0   0
FYV   69  92  66  89 /  30  20  10  10
BYV   70  90  66  88 /  40  20   0  10
MKO   73  95  71  91 /  20  20   0  10
MIO   72  93  68  90 /  20  10   0   0
F10   72  94  70  91 /  20  20   0  10
HHW   74  96  73  92 /  20  30  20  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ049-053>068-
     070>076.

     Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Wednesday for OKZ049-053-
     072>076.

AR...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ001-002-019-020-
     029.

     Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Wednesday for ARZ019-020-029.

&&

SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....06
AVIATION...14

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
513 PM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-201015-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
513 PM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Western Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

DANGEROUS HEAT.
	RISK...Elevated.
    AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Western Arkansas.
    ONSET...Ongoing.

DISCUSSION...
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are ongoing late this
afternoon in parts of eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas. The
thunderstorms will continue to pose a locally heavy rain and gusty
wind threat, with a limited potential for damaging wind gusts with
the strongest thunderstorms. The coverage and intensity of
thunderstorms are both expected to wane with the loss of daytime
heating, although low thunderstorm chances will persist overnight.

In areas that have not seen cooling rains this afternoon, hot and
humid conditions persist, with heat index values from 100 to 110
degrees continuing. Conditions will improve toward sunset.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Local Spotter Activation May Be Needed.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.
WEDNESDAY...Thunderstorm and Dangerous Heat Potential.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...No Hazards.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
Thunderstorm chances will focus southward on Wednesday primarily
across southeast Oklahoma into west central Arkansas. Hot and
humid conditions will remain in place, especially for areas south
of Interstate 40, before slightly cooler and drier air arrives
Thursday through Saturday. The weather pattern begins to change by
early next week, with daily shower and thunderstorm chances and below
normal temperatures.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
516 PM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025

OKZ073-192245-
Pittsburg OK-
516 PM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT WEST CENTRAL PITTSBURG COUNTY
THROUGH 545 PM CDT...

At 516 PM CDT, Doppler radar indicated a strong thunderstorm 4 miles
south of Stuart, moving southwest at 5 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down small tree limbs and blow
         around unsecured objects.

Locations in or near the path include...
Ashland...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3493 9609 3484 9594 3468 9603 3468 9609
TIME...MOT...LOC 2216Z 038DEG 4KT 3484 9608

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
519 PM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025

ARZ029-OKZ076-192245-
Sebastian AR-Le Flore OK-
519 PM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN SEBASTIAN AND EAST
CENTRAL LE FLORE COUNTIES THROUGH 545 PM CDT...

At 519 PM CDT, Doppler radar indicated a strong thunderstorm 5 miles
west of Hartford, moving west at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down small tree limbs and blow
         around unsecured objects.

Locations in or near the path include...
Hartford...                       Poteau...
Cameron...                        Shady Point...
Heavener...                       Howe...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3496 9437 3494 9439 3495 9441 3493 9443
      3493 9444 3491 9445 3487 9461 3513 9470
      3515 9441 3495 9435
TIME...MOT...LOC 2219Z 073DEG 8KT 3505 9447

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
521 PM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025

OKZ049-076-192245-
Pushmataha OK-Le Flore OK-
521 PM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN PUSHMATAHA AND
SOUTHWESTERN LE FLORE COUNTIES THROUGH 545 PM CDT...

At 521 PM CDT, Doppler radar indicated strong thunderstorms along a
line extending from 4 miles west of Whitesboro to 3 miles west of Big
Cedar. Movement was southeast at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea to dime size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down small tree limbs and blow
         around unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation
         is possible.

Locations in or near the path include...
Whitesboro...                     Octavia...
Talihina...                       Muse...
Honobia...                        Big Cedar...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3452 9501 3468 9506 3476 9506 3471 9464
      3451 9449 3450 9494
TIME...MOT...LOC 2221Z 332DEG 11KT 3469 9497 3464 9471

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

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