Severe Thunderstorm Warning 385, NWS Tulsa, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
Issued by National Weather Service Norman OK
624 PM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 126 AM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025

  - Severe thunderstorms and heavy rainfall expected overnight and
    early Wednesday.

  - Dry and summer-like conditions are expected late in the week
    and into the upcoming weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of this afternoon )
Issued at 136 PM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025

The remainder of the afternoon will be uneventful weather-wise over
eastern Oklahoma and northwestern Arkansas... prior to notable severe
weather and heavy rainfall/flood risks in the subsequent hours.

All substantive convection has exited the area - particularly east of a MCV
over northwestern Arkansas - providing a momentary lull in storm impacts.
Cirrus/high clouds from convective debris continue to stream over the area
providing filtered insolation and moderating temperatures over much of
northeastern Oklahoma/northwestern Arkansas which remain in the upper 70s to
lower 80s at this time.

Current interests revolve around the evolution of an outflow boundary
which is now situated from near Stillwater to McAlester. Additionally a
broken line of strong storms is ongoing along an approaching front over
Kansas. There is a low probability this activity may approach Ottawa
and/or Craig Counties later this afternoon. Otherwise, both of these
features will be important to potential outcomes overnight/early Wednesday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Tuesday)
Issued at 136 PM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025

One or more organized convective complexes will approach the forecast/warning
area by 02-05z (9 pm to midnight). Given strong instability and sufficient
wind shear, these storms will be capable of all severe weather hazards
through the overnight hours...with the potential of locally damaging winds
of particular concern. Also, short-range ensembles suggests 65 percent
probabilities of 2 inch or greater rainfall over northeastern Oklahoma by
early/mid Wednesday. Thus flood/flash flood risks are also present. High-
resolution ensembles present the greatest prospects for damaging winds
generally along and west of the I44 corridor roughly between 05-07z.

Lingering convection and associated hazards (perhaps transiting toward heavy
rain/flooding) will persist into the first half of Wednesday.

By Thursday, the ridge starts to build back in, reducing our rain
chances.

Temperatures begin to cool in northern Oklahoma on Wednesday to
the upper 80s as the frontal boundary moves through. By Thursday,
southerly flow will have returned allowing temperatures to climb
into the low 90s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 621 PM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025

Ongoing VFR conditions will deteriorate as a complex of storms
sweeps across the region this evening into the overnight hours. The
peak of severe weather may pose a risk of locally damaging winds
primarily across NE OK. Convection may linger past sunrise in wake
of the strongest storms especially in vicinity of the remnant outflow
boundary. A window of MVFR ceilings may persist through the morning with
VFR ceilings thereafter. A chance of storms may persist through the
afternoon primarily from SE OK through NW AR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   74  86  69  91 /  60  40  10   0
FSM   76  89  72  91 /  50  50  40  10
MLC   74  88  70  91 /  30  40  40  10
BVO   69  85  65  91 /  60  40   0   0
FYV   72  85  66  89 /  80  60  40  10
BYV   71  85  66  87 /  60  70  40   0
MKO   73  85  69  88 /  60  50  20  10
MIO   71  83  66  88 /  80  50  10   0
F10   73  86  68  89 /  40  60  20  10
HHW   74  89  71  89 /  10  20  40  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flood Watch from 10 PM CDT this evening through Wednesday
     afternoon for OKZ054>070.

AR...Flood Watch from 10 PM CDT this evening through Wednesday
     afternoon for ARZ001-002-010-011.

&&

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...99

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
Issued by National Weather Service Norman OK
310 PM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-181045-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
310 PM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...Elevated.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...Overnight and early Wednesday morning.

HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOOD RISK.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...vernight and early Wednesday morning.

DISCUSSION...
An intense complex of thunderstorms is expected overnight tonight
with a cold front and a greater risk of severe weather. Damaging
wind gusts and hail are possible. There is the potential for bowing
segments within the complex of thunderstorms, which may result in a
risk for significant wind gusts--especially in areas generally along
and west of the Interstate 44 corridor...and in areas near the Kansas/
Oklahoma border. Heavy rainfall associated with this complex may also
result in localized flooding.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Local Spotter Activation May Be Needed.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.
WEDNESDAY...Thunderstorm Potential
THURSDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
FRIDAY...Dangerous Heat Potential.
SATURDAY...Dangerous Heat Potential.
SUNDAY...Dangerous Heat Potential.
Monday...Dangerous Heat Potential.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
Strong to severe thunderstorms remain possible on Wednesday as
the cold front lingers across the area. Damaging wind gusts and
hail will remain the primary hazards. Heavy rainfall may also
result in some flooding threat. There is uncertainty on where the
greatest risk of severe weather will be as it will depend on the
exact location of the front, which will be influenced by the
previous night's complex of thunderstorms. The risk of storms
should end from northwest to southeast late Wednesday into early
Thursday. Dangerous heat will return for the end of the workweek
and into the upcoming weekend.

weather.gov/tulsa for additional information.