Severe Thunderstorm Warning 372, NWS Tulsa, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
629 PM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 255 PM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025

  - Rain and thunderstorm chances continue through the weekend,
    with at least a limited potential for severe weather and
    localized flash flooding, especially across eastern Oklahoma.
    Continue to monitor the forecast for updates and additional
    details as they become available.

  - Warming trend and humid conditions going into next week with
    heat indices approaching or potentially exceeding 100 degrees.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight)
Issued at 255 PM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025

A mid-upper level low was clearly defined on water vapor imagery
this afternoon, positioned in southern Missouri, and drifting
east- northeast. As the low departs, isolated to scattered showers
and thunderstorms will persist this evening, primarily across far
eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas. Precip may continue into
the overnight hours, but with lessening coverage. Then, by late
overnight into tomorrow morning, increasing WAA will increase
shower and storm potential again along a moist axis in N-Central/
NE Oklahoma. Heavy rainfall will continue to be a concern with
precip through tonight, and localized flash flooding may develop
quickly given seasonably high PWATs. Additionally, while shear
will remain weak, moderate instability and sufficiently steep
lapse rates may allow storms to become strong to severe late
tonight/ tomorrow morning across northeast Oklahoma. Marginally
severe hail and wind gusts will be the primary hazard... along
with the previously mentioned flash flooding potential.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Friday)
Issued at 255 PM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025

Following the exit of today's upper low, ridging expands across
the desert southwest and places our area under north-northwest
flow aloft. Showers and thunderstorms may be ongoing tomorrow
morning across northeast Oklahoma and perhaps extending into
northwest Arkansas. As the nocturnal jet weakens, storm intensity
and coverage should tend to decrease through the morning hours.
Considerable spread remains regarding convective evolution
tomorrow afternoon, but at least some potential exists for
redevelopment with diurnal heating... especially along any remnant
outflow boundaries. If this occurs, moderate to strong
instability and sufficient lapse rates would likely support some
severe potential, despite generally weak shear.

Saturday evening and overnight, a wave embedded in the flow aloft
will drift into the region, potentially igniting additional
storms across southern Kansas/ northeast Oklahoma. Various models
have hinted at fairly robust convection and potential development
into an MCS if storms materialize. While shear will be modest,
sufficient instability and low level lapse rates should support
severe weather potential with this activity. Damaging wind gusts,
very heavy rainfall leading to areas of flash flooding, and large
hail would be the primary hazards with any activity during the
afternoon hours and/or overnight. As with the previous forecast,
have gone above NBM PoPs to account for storm potential
tomorrow... but PoPs may still be too low during this period and
adjustments may be required in following forecasts.

Low chances for showers and thunderstorms continue into Sunday
and Monday. The environment will likely continue to support at
least limited severe weather and heavy rainfall/ flash flooding
threats through the remainder of the weekend... with additional
MCS activity not out of question. Preceding convective/mesoscale
evolution will likely play a large role in the determination of
severe timing and locations most at risk this weekend. With this
in mind, please continue to monitor the forecast over the coming
days as finer details become better resolved.

It appears the FA may have a break from the rainfall late Monday
into Tuesday as shortwave ridging briefly expands into the S
Plains. However, by late Tuesday into Wednesday, an amplified
trough is forecast to move into the plains, dragging a weak front
down with it. The front is projected to slow and eventually stall
somewhere in or near our area, with additional shower and
thunderstorm chances through early Thursday. By late next week,
upper ridging appears to expand into the region and intensify in a
much more summer-like pattern. This will likely bring much drier
conditions and put an end to our very rainy stretch. Temperatures
will gradually increase this weekend, climbing into the lower to
mid 90s by next week, which is slightly above average. Warming
temperatures and high dewpoints are likely to lead to the first
stretch of heat indices approaching or exceeding 100 across the
area next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 629 PM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025

Scattered convection is redeveloping along a surface boundary near a
SWO-MKO-FSM line this evening, with other scattered activity
redevoping in far nwrn AR. Expect this activity for a few hours into
the forecast period then activity should wane. MVFR visibilities in
fog is possible at most sites after 06z, especially nwrn AR sites,
including some IFR. Still a signal in the latest CAMs suggesting
another round of TSRA late tonight/Saturday morning ern OK sites.
Some morning MVFR CIGS/VSBYS becoming VFR by late morning. Depending
on where the morning convection develops, more convection is possible
Saturday afternoon/evening along the outflow boundary, which at this
time seems most likely to affect the southernmost sites MLC/FSM.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   70  88  71  85 /  20  20  30  40
FSM   70  90  72  89 /  30  30  20  40
MLC   70  88  72  89 /  20  20  20  30
BVO   67  88  68  84 /  20  20  30  40
FYV   65  87  68  85 /  20  20  20  40
BYV   64  86  67  84 /  20  20  20  40
MKO   69  87  71  87 /  20  20  30  40
MIO   65  87  69  83 /  20  20  20  40
F10   69  88  71  88 /  20  20  30  40
HHW   71  88  72  87 /  10  10  20  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...43
LONG TERM....43
AVIATION...69

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
455 PM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-141030-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
455 PM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOOD RISK
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing

DISCUSSION...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue this evening
mainly across eastern Oklahoma into western Arkansas as a low
pressure center moves northeast away from the area. Instability
will be sufficient for a few strong to severe storms with damaging
winds being the main threat. Locally heavy rainfall has been
observed today and will remain possible with any of the more
organized storms.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Local Spotter Activation May Be Needed.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.
SATURDAY and SUNDAY...Thunderstorm Potential...Heavy Rain
Potential.
MONDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
TUESDAY...Thunderstorm Potential...Dangerous Heat Potential.
WEDNESDAY and Thursday...Thunderstorm Potential.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
Shower and thunderstorm chances will continue through the weekend
as the area remains between a storm system centered over the Ohio
Valley and a ridge of high pressure over New Mexico. Daytime and
overnight thunderstorm activity is possible within this regime as
moderate to strong instability remains situated across the area.
Strong to marginally severe storms will be possible with damaging
winds the main concern. Heavy rainfall associated with any
organized storms will prolong or enhance any river or flash flood
concerns. Warmer and more humid conditions are expected early
next week, with afternoon heat index values at or above 100
degrees in some places on Tuesday. Pop-up storms will be possible
until another storm system moves into the Plains mid- week
bringing the chance for more widespread and organized activity.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
700 PM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025

OKZ066-071-140030-
Okmulgee OK-McIntosh OK-
700 PM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN MCINTOSH AND
SOUTHEASTERN OKMULGEE COUNTIES THROUGH 730 PM CDT...

At 700 PM CDT, Doppler radar indicated a cluster of strong
thunderstorms over Hoffman, moving south at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down small tree limbs and blow
         around unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation
         is possible.

Locations in or near the path include...
Henryetta...                      Dewar...
Hoffman...                        Schulter...
Grayson...

This includes Interstate 40 in Oklahoma between mile markers 237 and
248.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3560 9599 3555 9580 3525 9580 3525 9598
      3538 9598 3538 9600
TIME...MOT...LOC 0000Z 348DEG 20KT 3547 9585

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
707 PM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025

OKZ068-072-140030-
Sequoyah OK-Cherokee OK-
707 PM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN SEQUOYAH AND
SOUTHEASTERN CHEROKEE COUNTIES THROUGH 730 PM CDT...

At 706 PM CDT, Doppler radar indicated a strong thunderstorm 6 miles
west of Cherokee Landing State Park, moving southeast at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down small tree limbs and blow
         around unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation
         is possible.

Locations in or near the path include...
Cookson...                        Cherokee Landing State Park...
Box...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3570 9481 3564 9481 3564 9479 3553 9498
      3575 9510 3583 9501
TIME...MOT...LOC 0006Z 319DEG 18KT 3578 9502

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

MAB