Severe Thunderstorm Warning 346, NWS Tulsa, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
131 AM CDT Sat Jun 7 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 130 AM CDT Sat Jun 7 2025

  - Severe MCS expected to pass across the region tonight through
    mid morning. Ongoing flooding will worsen and new flood areas
    may develop.

  - Relative lull in storm chances from late today through
    tonight. Another storm complex Sunday evening into overnight
    hours.

  - Flash and main-stem river flooding threat will be widespread
    generally along and north of Interstate 40.

  - Brief dry period through mid week with below average
    temperatures for this time of year. Rain chances returns later
    in the work week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through mid afternoon)
Issued at 130 AM CDT Sat Jun 7 2025

Storms steadily expanding in coverage across NE OK in advance of
organized bowing MCS quickly moving across north central OK. The
severe threat will quickly increase this morning both with the
ongoing scattered storms and certainly with the advancing bow. 00z
KOUN sounding sampled the corridor of strong elevated instability
and effective shear profiles support high likelihood of organized
severe weather with the passing MCS which is timed to clear
western AR by mid morning. Flooding will quickly worsen with the
additional heavy rains and rises should be anticipated on area
main stem rivers.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Late afternoon through Friday)
Issued at 130 AM CDT Sat Jun 7 2025

The remnant outflow boundary may focus a few storms later today
into the evening across SE OK but coverage is likely to be low. A
relative lull in storm chances in expected from late afternoon
through tonight into the day Sunday.

Troughing deepens through the central CONUS and drives a cold
front through the area Sunday night into Monday. Another storm
complex is likely during this time frame with highest chances
across SE OK and points west and southward, however there remains
uncertainty in the placement of this complex and higher weather
impacts remain possible pending the exact track.

A few drier and cooler days are likely for early next week before
a weak upper low drifts across the Southern Plains mid to late
week. This feature has been consistent in guidance and precip
chances have trended upward in the Wed - Thurs time frame
as the upper low passes.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1250AM CDT Sat Jun 7 2025

Showers and thunderstorms have developed across E OK early tonight,
and expect coverage to increase during the overnight hours as a
complex of storms moves into the region from the west.
All sites will likely experience impacts between 06-14z with
potential for strong winds, heavy rainfall, and significantly
reduced vsbys. Large hail may also occur in the stronger cells early
tonight. Showers and MVFR to IFR cigs will develop behind storms
late tonight into the morning hours, especially across NE OK and NW
AR sites. Conditions are forecast to improve by early afternoon with
VFR conditions likely areawide by 18z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   84  66  89  65 /  70   0  10  40
FSM   86  68  92  69 /  90  30   0  40
MLC   87  68  89  67 /  70  40  10  60
BVO   83  61  88  62 /  50   0  10  40
FYV   82  63  88  64 /  90  20   0  30
BYV   81  62  87  64 /  90  10   0  30
MKO   83  65  88  66 /  80  20  10  40
MIO   81  62  87  63 /  80   0  10  40
F10   85  65  89  65 /  80  20  10  50
HHW   90  70  89  67 /  70  40  10  70

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flood Watch until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for OKZ054>072.

AR...Flood Watch until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for ARZ001-002-010-011-
     019-020.

&&

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...43

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
531 PM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-071000-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
531 PM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...Elevated.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...After Midnight.

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...Elevated.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...Late Tonight.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...Elevated.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...After Midnight.

DISCUSSION...
Another complex of thunderstorms is expected to develop late this
evening and overnight, moving across eastern Oklahoma and into
Northwest Arkansas by Saturday morning. Damaging winds will again
be a threat along with heavy rainfall and continued flooding
concerns across the region. The tornado threat appears lower with
this system, but there is a very low chance for a tornado or two
with the stronger line of storms.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Activation of the Regional Spotter Network Likely.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.
SATURDAY and SUNDAY...Thunderstorm Potential...Heavy Rain Potential.
MONDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
TUESDAY...No Hazards.
WEDNESDAY and THURSDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
Strong to severe storms may be ongoing early Saturday as another
thunderstorm complex impacts the region. A similar pattern is
likely to develop Saturday night into Sunday with the focus for
strongest storms shifting south to mainly parts of southeast
Oklahoma. Yet another thunderstorm complex is likely Sunday night
into Monday and may impact southeast Oklahoma. Repeated instances
of heavy rain will likely lead to flash flooding and main stem
river flooding.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>