Severe Thunderstorm Warning 309, NWS Tulsa, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
904 PM CDT Sun May 25 2025

...New UPDATE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 207 PM CDT Sun May 25 2025

  - Widespread thunderstorm development expected overnight, with
    highest confidence across the southern two-thirds of the
    forecast area. Heavy rain and flooding will remain the primary
    concern, with severe thunderstorm hazards also a threat.

  - Additional showers and thunderstorms, with largely a heavy
    rain and continued flooding threat, are expected through
    Monday with a shift more toward southeast Oklahoma and west
    central Arkansas.

  - Widespread flash flooding and mainstem river flooding
    potential will continue through the rest of the Memorial Day
    holiday weekend. Flood safety messaging will remain a focus.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 844 PM CDT Sun May 25 2025

The latest surface data shows a stationary front across far southeast
Oklahoma with lower 70 dewpoints pooled along it. Storms continue
to develop along the front into the Arklatex with some signs of
building westward into Choctaw county with time. Expect the
boundary to continue to focus storms through the evening into
early Monday morning as lift approaches from a shortwave moving
out of the TX Panhandle. Additional storms continue to form in the
vicinity of the 850 mb front stretching across the I-40 corridor
from western into central OK with support from a minor shortwave
moving across and upper level divergence. Generally weak flow
continues from the surface into the 850 mb layer with deep layer
shear also on the marginal side keeping most of the activity from
organizing or sustaining too long. As large scale lift moves
across the area overnight, expect upscale growth of convection
across western OK into northwest TX to spread eastward into
eastern OK and eventually west-centrl AR. The majority of the
activity is expected to remain focused near the stationary
boundary with more scattered storms persisting north of I-40
through mid-morning Monday. The main concern overnight remains to
be locally heavy rainfall with storms training along and north of
the boundary across southeast Oklahoma and periodic moderate to
heavy downpours over already saturated soils across northeast
Oklahoma.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through Tonight) Issued at 207 PM CDT Sun May 25 2025

Widespread thunderstorm development remains expected this evening
and overnight, with a focus across the southern half to two-thirds
of the forecast area. Thunderstorms currently ongoing across far
east central Oklahoma and into western Arkansas are elevated, with
mainly a threat for heavy rain and marginally severe hail through
mid afternoon. Isolated thunderstorms have developed in the past
hour in south central Oklahoma, in the vicinity of a surface front
that extends into southeast Oklahoma. Very moist conditions are
located across that portion of the forecast area with a large area
of mid 70s dew points present, leading to a highly unstable
airmass along and just north of the Red River. This boundary,
which is farther south than some models depict, should continue
to be a focus for development this evening, with all severe
weather hazards possible. There may be some northward movement in
the boundary as the low level jet strengthens aided by some
modest clearing occurring behind the ongoing activity farther
north. However, still think a more southern solution with the
strongest activity this evening remains the most likely one.

Attention is also on the potential for development this afternoon
in West Texas that will eventually congeal into a mature MCS and
move eastward toward mainly southeast Oklahoma into early Monday
morning. A damaging wind threat will likely accompany the MCS as
it moves across far southeast Oklahoma, with the heavy rain threat
extending farther northward.

Given the very heavy rains that have occurred in the past 12 hours
across a swath from Osage County through the Tulsa metro and into
northwest Arkansas will remain the most susceptible part of the
forecast area to rapid onset flash flooding. Unfortunately, a good
portion of this area looks to be within the likely northern
extent of the heaviest rains this evening. Southeast Oklahoma also
remains very saturated from rains over the past week, especially
from northern Pittsburg County eastward into the northern half of
LeFlore County. As a result, this area will also be susceptible to
rapid onset flash flooding.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Memorial Day through Sunday)
Issued at 207 PM CDT Sun May 25 2025

There will likely be a relative lull in the coverage of showers
and thunderstorms during the morning hours on Monday on the heels
of the overnight thunderstorm complex. The next batch of showers
and thunderstorms will be more likely to develop mid to late
afternoon to the west and southwest, moving eastward across the
region through the evening, focused in southeast Oklahoma.
Depending on how this evolves and what happens rainfall wise
tonight, the Flood Watch may need to be extended into Monday night
for southern portions of the region. The severe weather threat
does not look substantial, although it is nonzero.

The pattern will remain fairly active, from a continued isolated
to scattered shower and thunderstorm perspective, mid to late in
the upcoming work week as a result of a stubborn upper low in the
Upper Midwest. Low to medium thunderstorm chances will be timed
with impulses rotating around the southern periphery of the low.
The overall severe thunderstorm threat does not look substantial
given the unseasonably cool conditions and lower dew points.

Warmer conditions should make a return by the weekend, as the
upper low finally shifts eastward and upper level ridging moves
into the region.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 625 PM CDT Sun May 25 2025

Poor flying conditions expected across eastern OK and northwest AR
through much of the TAF period. Ongoing thunderstorms will
increase in coverage this evening into the overnight period as
large scale lift approaches. A warm front south of Interstate 40
will continue to focus more concentrated activity across the KMLC
and KFSM TAF sites while there will be a potential for more breaks
in activity across the remainder of the terminals. In between
storms, MVFR ceilings below 2kft are forecast with IFR conditions
becoming prevailing at all sites by 10-12Z. Ceilings will
gradually lift to MVFR as showers move east late Tuesday morning
but highest confidence in this remains across southern most
terminals with a moderate chance that KTUL and KRVS will also
improve by afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   63  72  60  73 /  80  60  70  20
FSM   66  76  65  79 /  90  80  80  30
MLC   66  77  62  77 /  90  70  80  20
BVO   59  70  57  71 /  70  70  70  20
FYV   60  71  60  75 /  80  80  70  40
BYV   59  66  59  73 /  80  80  70  50
MKO   64  74  61  73 /  90  70  80  30
MIO   61  69  60  71 /  60  80  70  30
F10   64  75  61  73 /  90  60  80  20
HHW   67  77  65  79 /  90  80  80  30

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flood Watch through Monday evening for OKZ049-053>076.

AR...Flood Watch through Monday evening for ARZ001-002-010-011-019-
     020-029.

&&

SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....24
AVIATION...07

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
538 PM CDT Sun May 25 2025

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-261045-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
538 PM CDT Sun May 25 2025

...SIGNIFICANT FLOODING IMPACTS THROUGH MONDAY...

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...Elevated.
 	AREA...All of eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

HEAVY RAIN and FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...Significant.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

DISCUSSION...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will continue this
evening, generally along and south of Interstate 40. Additional
activity will spread east from north Texas and central Oklahoma
overnight into eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas. Flooding
and flash flooding concerns will remain across a corridor from
northeast Oklahoma into northwest Arkansas where widespread 2-4
inches of rain fell Saturday night into Sunday morning. Renewed
flooding will be a concern across southeast Oklahoma as storms
redevelop and move along a warm front across that area.

As thunderstorm coverage increases overnight, intensity will also
increase especially along and south of Interstate 40 where the
highest severe threat will exist. Large hail and damaging winds
will be the main concerns through late Monday morning.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT
ACTION STATEMENT... Activation of the Regional Spotter Network
Likely.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.
MONDAY...Severe Thunderstorm Potential.
TUESDAY through Saturday...Thunderstorm Potential.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
The majority of the severe weather and heavy rain threat will
exit the area by late morning Monday with a lower chances of
thunderstorms later in the day Monday. Scattered shower and storm
chances remain in the forecast through midweek with a return of
more nighttime and early morning activity late in the work week.
Any heavy rains will likely exacerbate ongoing flooding conditions
so continue to observe warning signs and watch for flooded roads
when driving.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
837 PM CDT Sun May 25 2025

OKZ065-260200-
Okfuskee OK-
837 PM CDT Sun May 25 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT WESTERN OKFUSKEE COUNTY THROUGH
900 PM CDT...

At 836 PM CDT, Doppler radar indicated a strong thunderstorm 4 miles
northwest of Little, moving northeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down small tree limbs and blow
         around unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation
         is possible.

Locations in or near the path include...
Paden...                          Castle...
Boley...

This includes Interstate 40 in Oklahoma between mile markers 212 and
216.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3564 9662 3564 9650 3549 9623 3535 9644
      3546 9644 3546 9647 3543 9650 3543 9652
      3546 9654 3544 9657 3543 9656 3542 9656
      3541 9654 3539 9654 3541 9658 3540 9662
TIME...MOT...LOC 0136Z 233DEG 25KT 3540 9671

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
856 PM CDT Sun May 25 2025

OKZ065-066-071-260230-
Okmulgee OK-Okfuskee OK-McIntosh OK-
856 PM CDT Sun May 25 2025

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT WEST CENTRAL MCINTOSH...
SOUTHWESTERN OKMULGEE AND OKFUSKEE COUNTIES THROUGH 930 PM CDT...

At 856 PM CDT, Doppler radar indicated strong thunderstorms along a
line extending from 6 miles northeast of Little to near Wewoka.
Movement was east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down small tree limbs and blow
         around unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation
         is possible.

Locations in or near the path include...
Bryant...                         Boley...
Paden...                          Weleetka...
Okemah...                         Okfuskee...
Clearview...                      Mason...
Castle...                         Bearden...
Welty...                          Pharoah...
Henryetta...

This includes Interstate 40 in Oklahoma between mile markers 212 and
237.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3563 9662 3564 9619 3566 9619 3566 9612
      3529 9590 3528 9598 3529 9598 3529 9644
      3546 9644 3546 9647 3543 9650 3543 9652
      3545 9655 3544 9657 3541 9654 3539 9654
      3541 9658 3540 9660 3540 9662
TIME...MOT...LOC 0156Z 252DEG 25KT 3542 9662 3514 9653

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH