Severe Thunderstorm Warning 22, NWS Tulsa, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1231 AM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1225 AM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025

  - Severe weather potential increases this evening into Sunday
    with all severe hazards possible.

  - Unsettled mid / late week with severe weather potential late
    Tuesday into Wednesday.

  - Rain chances continue for late week through next weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of tonight)
Issued at 956 PM CDT Sat Mar 29 2025

Cold front has pushed into Osage and Pawnee counties this evening,
but storm development in northern Oklahoma thus far has remained
confined to areas northwest of the frontal boundary, which has
limited storm intensity.

Surface based storms have developed in southwest Oklahoma and are
moving northeast into central Oklahoma at this time. Hail up to
golfball size has been observed with these storms. These storms
will likely continue northeast into northeast Oklahoma over the
next few hours with a continued severe weather threat, and
additional storms may develop along the advancing cold front as
well. With time, storms are likely to take on a more linear mode,
with damaging winds becoming the main severe weather threat later
tonight.

Farther south, storm coverage remains more in question, and thus
pops will be lower in this area as advertised by the going
forecast.

The only change to the forecast at this time is some minor
adjustments to overnight lows.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Saturday)
Issued at 237 PM CDT Sat Mar 29 2025

As the cold front moves south late tonight into tomorrow morning,
additional development is expected during the afternoon hours in SE
OK and W-Central AR. These storms will again have potential to
become severe, with primarily a large hail and damaging wind threat.
A limited tornado threat may also evolve, but low level shear/ SRH
over our area will not be as strong as tonight. Storms move east of
the CWA during the evening hours.

Sfc high pressure keeps the weather quiet on Monday (albeit much
cooler) before broad W CONUS troughing begins to influence the
region Tuesday. By late in the day Tuesday or Tuesday night,
adequate moisture return will have occurred and additional
thunderstorms are forecast to develop along a frontal boundary in
the S Plains. Conditions will again be favorable for severe weather
and all hazards appear possible at this time. This frontal boundary
is advertised to hang around the area for much of next week. With
multiple impulses moving through the area during this time, nearly
daily chances of thunderstorms and at least limited severe potential
are forecast, particularly across SE OK and W-Central AR. Given
repeated storms over the same areas, hydrologic conditions may
eventually become a concern next week with heavy rainfall.

High temperatures through the period generally remain near to above
average... in the 60s and 70s... but with a cooler day on Monday.
Winds will become gusty at times, potentially increasing fire
weather concerns at times. However, increasing moisture and rainfall
should keep the fire weather threat limited for the most part.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1231 AM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025

A line of thunderstorms will move across eastern Oklahoma over
the next several hours with gusty winds and heavy rainfall
reducing visibilities to IFR conditions at times. Storms will
likely weaken as they track east, with less certainty in holding
together to impact NW AR sites later this morning. A cold front
will also make steady progress through the region bringing a
change to northerly winds this morning across NE OK sites and this
afternoon for NW AR terminals. Additional thunderstorm
development is possible across W AR ahead of the front this
afternoon, before pushing east by evening. PROB30's have been
maintained for this afternoon's chances with still low confidence
in storm initiating over far western Arkansas.

Bowlan

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   64  41  63  45 /  20   0   0   0
FSM   79  47  69  46 /  40  10   0   0
MLC   74  45  66  47 /  20  10   0   0
BVO   63  37  61  39 /  20   0   0   0
FYV   74  39  63  42 /  40  10   0   0
BYV   75  40  60  42 /  50  10   0   0
MKO   71  42  63  44 /  20   0   0   0
MIO   64  38  59  41 /  30   0   0   0
F10   69  42  63  44 /  10   0   0   0
HHW   81  49  67  48 /  40  30  10   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....43
AVIATION...04

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
515 PM CDT Sat Mar 29 2025

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-301000-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
515 PM CDT Sat Mar 29 2025

...SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL INCREASES TONIGHT...

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.
TORNADO.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Northeast Oklahoma.
	ONSET...After 9 PM.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...Significant.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...After 9 PM.

	AREA AT GREATEST RISK...Northeast Oklahoma.

FLASH FLOOD.
    RISK...Limited.
    AREA...Northeast Oklahoma.
    ONSET...After 10 PM.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Northeast Oklahoma.
	ONSET...After 10 PM.

SIGNIFICANT WINDS.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas
	ONSET...Ongoing...tapering off this evening.

FIRE WEATHER DANGER.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...West of Highway 75.
	ONSET...Ongoing...tapering off this evening.

DISCUSSION...
Thunderstorms are expected to develop to the west of the region
this evening, and then progress into northeast Oklahoma late this
evening and overnight while transitioning into organized clusters
or lines posing a high severe risk. Locally damaging winds will
be the primary threat through the event, with a limited tornado
threat both with the initial storms and with any organized bowing
line segments. Large hail may also accompany the initial more
cellular storms. Additional storms may spread into southeast
Oklahoma overnight, however uncertainty remains high in the
overall coverage and duration of storms across this region. Should
storms develop and persist then they will also pose a risk of
severe weather. Locally heavy rainfall may also occur with the
stronger storms, which may result in localized flooding concerns.

Gusty south winds and lower humidity west of highway 75 will raise
fire weather concerns into early this evening.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Activation of the Regional Spotter Network Expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.
SUNDAY...Thunderstorm Potential...High Wind Potential.
MONDAY...No Hazards.
TUESDAY...Thunderstorm Potential...Very High Fire Weather Potential...
          High Wind Potential.
WEDNESDAY...Severe Thunderstorm Potential...High Wind Potential.
THURSDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
FRIDAY...Thunderstorm Potential...Heavy Rain Potential.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
There is a limited risk of severe weather Sunday afternoon along
and ahead of an advancing cold front. The risk will be greatest
from far southeast Oklahoma into west central Arkansas. Large
hail and damaging winds are the primary threats. The threats will
shift south and east of the region by evening.

Winds increase on Tuesday with a window for higher grassland fire
spread rates Tuesday afternoon. This will be in advance of the next
cold front which passes Tuesday night into Wednesday. A line of
thunderstorms with a risk of severe weather is expected to accompany
the passing cold front. The front is likely to stall near the Red
River by early Thursday and focus additional showers and thunderstorms
Thursday into Friday as it lifts north as a warm front. Locally
heavy rainfall is possible during this time frame with details in
location and amounts to be refined in later forecasts.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.

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