Severe Thunderstorm Warning 14, NWS Tulsa, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
601 PM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 557 PM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025

  - High impact weather day today with extreme fire weather
    conditions, very strong winds, blowing dust, and limited and
    brief potential for strong and/or severe thunderstorms for far
    eastern parts of the forecast area.

  - Slightly cooler this weekend, with low rain chances far
    southeast Oklahoma into west central Arkansas on Saturday.

  - Well above average temperatures and gusty south winds return
    early next week, with at least elevated fire weather
    conditions developing.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through Tonight)
Issued at 234 PM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025

An historic fire weather and high wind day is in progress across
northeast Oklahoma, with multiple 60 to 70 mph gusts recorded
in the past 1 to 2 hours, considerable blowing dust and the
beginnings of multiple fires visible on both satellite and area
radars. The dryline continues to push eastward across eastern
Oklahoma, eventually reaching northwest and west central
Arkansas, with worsening conditions expected areawide following
its passage. The main change with the updated forecast has been to
extend the Red Flag Warning and the High Wind Warning/Wind
Advisory headlines through 10 pm, with only slow improvement
expected after sunset.

In addition to the fire weather, high wind, and blowing dust
concerns, we are not out of the woods as it concerns strong to
severe thunderstorms either. A line of thunderstorms has developed
in the past hour or so in advance of the dryline across far
northeast Oklahoma, moving rapidly northeastward. Given the
current and expected instability trends from roughly the Oklahoma
and Arkansas state line and to the east, in concert with the
existing wind fields, a brief window will exist through the rest
of the afternoon for localized severe weather. That threat should
quickly shift north and east of the area by early evening.

Into the rest of the overnight, expect wind speeds to trend
downward, with some gustiness remaining into early Saturday
morning. Temperatures should be largely above normal.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Friday)
Issued at 234 PM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025

A cold front will move through the area during the day Saturday as
another, weaker disturbance pushes southeastward. This disturbance
will also bring a low chance for rain to parts of far southeast
Oklahoma and into west central Arkansas on Saturday. The troughing
over the weekend will shift east of the region by Monday, leading
to another round of above normal temperatures, gusty winds and
increasing fire weather concerns through Tuesday. Another storm
system will approach and move trough the region on Wednesday.
Current timing of this feature does not appear conducive to
another big fire weather day, with an early morning dryline
passage quickly replaced by a cold front. Low shower chances will
exist ahead of the dryline, with only modest moisture return
suggesting little in the way of thunderstorm potential.
Temperatures into Thursday will be near normal, with southerly
winds, a slight warmup and fire weather concerns returning for
Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 557 PM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025

Visibility restrictions due to smoke/haze will continue to be an issue
through the night at all area sites with lower visibilities anticipated
across northeast Oklahoma. Strong winds will also be an issue through the
evening with a gradual decrease in intensity expected overnight. Storms
are now moving northeast of the northwest Arkanss sites this evening and
further development this evening is not expected to impact these sites.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   48  63  34  63 /   0  10  10   0
FSM   53  71  38  64 /  20  20  10   0
MLC   51  67  35  64 /   0  10   0   0
BVO   45  62  30  63 /  10   0   0   0
FYV   49  68  32  59 /  20  10  10   0
BYV   53  66  34  57 /  60  10  10   0
MKO   50  65  34  62 /   0  10   0   0
MIO   48  61  32  59 /  10  10  10   0
F10   49  63  35  62 /   0  10   0   0
HHW   52  69  38  64 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Red Flag Warning until 10 PM CDT this evening for OKZ049-053>076.

     High Wind Warning until 10 PM CDT this evening for OKZ054>074.

     Wind Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for OKZ049-053-075-
     076.

AR...Red Flag Warning until 10 PM CDT this evening for ARZ001-002-010-
     011-019-020-029.

     High Wind Warning until 10 PM CDT this evening for ARZ001-010.

     Wind Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for ARZ002-011-019-
     020-029.

&&

SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM....22
AVIATION...10

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
452 PM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-151030-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
452 PM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025

...DAMAGING WIND AND FIRE EVENT ONGOING...

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...Late afternoon into Tonight.

TORNADO.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Far Northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Far Northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

POOR VISIBILITY.
	RISK...Elevated.
    AREA...Primarily Eastern Oklahoma.
    ONSET...Ongoing.

SIGNIFICANT WINDS.
	RISK...Significant.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

FIRE WEATHER DANGER.
	RISK...Critical.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

	AREA AT GREATEST RISK...Northeast Oklahoma

DISCUSSION...
A powerful upper storm system is bringing a climatologically rare
high wind event to eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas today.
Wind gusts between 50 and 60 miles an hour have been common. The
strongest gusts are expected along and north of Interstate 44, where
isolated damaging gusts to 70 miles an hour may occur. Winds will begin
to lessen some as we move through the evening hours.

In addition to the wind, very low humidity and favorable fuel
conditions will pose a critical to extreme fire weather danger
threat across all of eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas. The
most dangerous fire weather potential is forecast to be roughly
west of U.S. Highway 69 and north of Interstate 40, but the
potential for rapid fire spread will be present across all of the
area. Again,these conditions are expected to improve slowly as we
move through tonight.

Thunderstorms continue to develop near the dry line across northwest Arkansas
late this afternoon. There is the potential that these storms could become severe
before exiting the area by early evening. All modes of severe weather are possible.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Activation of the Regional Spotter Network Likely.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.
SATURDAY...High Wind Potential.
SUNDAY...No Hazards.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...Very High Fire Weather Potential...High Wind Potential.
THURSDAY...High Wind Potential.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
Gusty south winds and very low relative humidity values return
early next week, once again raising fire weather concerns across
the region.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PLANNING STATEMENT...
Emergency managers and first responders will need to be on alert
for the potential of rapidly spreading fires, downed power
lines from the wind, and potential damage to structures,
especially across northeast Oklahoma and far northwest Arkansas.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
605 PM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0517 PM     Non-Tstm Wnd Gst Davis Field             35.66N 95.36W
03/14/2025  M66 MPH          Muskogee           OK   ASOS

&&

JDS

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