Severe Thunderstorm Warning 124, NWS Tulsa, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
203 PM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 203 AM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025

  - Shower and storm potential tonight into Sunday morning.
    A few strong to marginally severe.

  - Multiple upper level storm systems move over the Plains early
    to mid next week with additional thunderstorm and heavy rain
    chances. Severe thunderstorms also possible.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of this afternoon and tonight)
Issued at 203 PM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025

An MCV is slated to move across northeast Oklahoma late this afternoon
into this evening bringing a round of showers and storms to
the region. The more potent storms will likely stay south of the I-40
corridor in a zone that is becoming more unstable north of boundary
near the Red River and south of a more subtle Theta-E boundary near
I-40. South of I-40, large hail to the size of quarters and wind gusts
to around 60 mph will be possible with any storms that develop later
this afternoon. While the potential for tornadoes is very low it is
not zero. North of I-40, small hail and gusty winds will be more likely
with the storms more elevated in nature. Localized flooding of low lying
areas could be a problem through this evening with rainfall rates of over
1 inch per hour possible with the strongest cells. This activity is likely
to end later this evening. However, the potential for showers and storms
will remain through the night as the frontal boundary near the Red River
lifts back to the north as a warm front.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Saturday)
Issued at 203 PM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025

After some morning showers/storms across northern portions of the area
Sunday morning, a warm and humid day is store for the area on Sunday.

The weather pattern becomes more unsettled as we move through the
week as a cold front sags into the region Monday night into Tuesday
morning and lingers across the area through Thursday morning. This
boundary will serve as the focus for several rounds of showers/storms
during this time as a series of upper level disturbances move over
the area within the sharpening southwesterly flow aloft. There looks
to be a severe weather threat with each round of storms and a growing
heavy rain and flood threat as we move into the Tuesday-Wednesday
time-frame.

High pressure is expected to build into the region late week and
into Saturday bringing quieter weather to the area.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1247 PM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025

Overall, a low confidence and messy aviation forecast through the
next 24 hours. Generally and currently, VFR continues to prevail
across eastern OK and northwest AR early this afternoon. A slow
transition to MVFR is still expected over the couple of hours as a
cluster of storms moves into eastern OK from the west/southwest.
Showers and thunderstorms will eventually push into northwest AR
late this afternoon or early this evening. Ceilings may lower
further to IFR at the AR terminals for a few hours into Sunday
morning. Timing of precipitation/thunder is somewhat uncertain,
with TAFs reflecting latest HRRR model timing. That said, TAFs
will likely need to be amended over the next several hours to
better reflect current obs/trends. A gradual transition to VFR is
expected mid-late morning Sunday, with additional
shower/thunderstorms possible by midday. Winds mostly stay light,
with winds veering southeasterly overnight tonight into Sunday
morning.

Mejia

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   62  81  67  81 /  70  20   0  10
FSM   63  84  66  86 /  60  10   0   0
MLC   63  83  68  82 /  50  10   0  10
BVO   58  80  64  82 /  70  20  10  20
FYV   59  80  64  83 /  70  10   0   0
BYV   57  78  64  82 /  70  20   0   0
MKO   62  80  66  80 /  60  10   0  10
MIO   60  78  66  79 /  70  20   0  10
F10   61  80  67  79 /  60  10   0  10
HHW   63  83  66  82 /  40  10   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...67

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
112 PM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-271015-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
112 PM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...Rest of Today and Tonight.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Mainly Southeast Oklahoma.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest AR.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest AR.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

DISCUSSION...
A storm system will continue move into the area today bringing
widespread rainfall. Rain will move from eastern Oklahoma into
northwest AR late this afternoon or early this evening. Areas of
heavy rainfall may occur. Additionally, thunderstorms, some of
which could be marginally severe, are expected. The main hazards
would be hail up to 1" and wind gusts up to 60 mph. There is a
very limited tornado threat, mainly across southeast Oklahoma. Any
severe weather will mostly focus across southeast OK.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Local Spotter Activation May Be Needed.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.
SUNDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
MONDAY...Thunderstorm Potential...High Wind Potential.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...Thunderstorm Potential...Heavy Rain Potential.
THURSDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
FRIDAY...No Hazards.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
Unsettled and stormy weather continues through most of the next
week. Sunday will only see a few scattered thunderstorms in the
morning hours. Much of Monday will also be quiet, but thunderstorm
activity ramps up late in the day. Severe thunderstorms may occur
Monday evening and again Tuesday and Wednesday. Areas of heavy
rain are also expected resulting in some flood potential,
including creeks and rivers. Conditions finally dry out by next
Friday.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
317 PM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025

OKZ049-053-262100-
Choctaw OK-Pushmataha OK-
317 PM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN PUSHMATAHA AND
WESTERN CHOCTAW COUNTIES THROUGH 400 PM CDT...

At 316 PM CDT, Doppler radar indicated a cluster of strong
thunderstorms 4 miles southwest of Soper, moving north at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down small tree limbs and blow
         around unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation
         is possible.

Locations in or near the path include...
Darwin...                         Kent...
Soper...                          Boswell...
Moyers...                         Kellond...
Unger...                          Antlers...
Gay...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3387 9584 3391 9588 3392 9591 3395 9594
      3412 9594 3414 9596 3415 9598 3416 9578
      3447 9578 3452 9563 3393 9560 3391 9564
      3391 9567 3388 9570 3390 9575 3387 9577
TIME...MOT...LOC 2016Z 180DEG 20KT 3398 9573

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Mejia

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
324 PM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025

OKZ073-262100-
Pittsburg OK-
324 PM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN PITTSBURG COUNTY
THROUGH 400 PM CDT...

At 324 PM CDT, Doppler radar indicated a strong thunderstorm near
Haywood, moving northeast at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down small tree limbs and blow
         around unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation
         is possible.

Locations in or near the path include...
Arpelar...                        Haywood...
Mcalester...                      Mcalester Regional Airport...
Krebs...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3515 9589 3502 9560 3481 9589 3487 9601
TIME...MOT...LOC 2024Z 211DEG 16KT 3490 9590

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Mejia

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
420 PM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025

OKZ073-075-262145-
Pittsburg OK-Latimer OK-
420 PM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN LATIMER AND
SOUTHEASTERN PITTSBURG COUNTIES THROUGH 445 PM CDT...

At 420 PM CDT, Doppler radar indicated a strong thunderstorm 10 miles
southeast of Blanco, moving northeast at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down small tree limbs and blow
         around unsecured objects.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of southwestern
Latimer and southeastern Pittsburg Counties.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3462 9572 3486 9564 3478 9537 3468 9549
      3468 9551 3466 9551 3459 9560 3459 9566
TIME...MOT...LOC 2120Z 208DEG 14KT 3466 9564

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Mejia