Severe Thunderstorm Warning 10, NWS Tulsa, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
234 PM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 234 PM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025

  - High impact weather day today with extreme fire weather
    conditions, very strong winds, blowing dust, and limited and
    brief potential for strong and/or severe thunderstorms for far
    eastern parts of the forecast area.

  - Slightly cooler this weekend, with low rain chances far
    southeast Oklahoma into west central Arkansas on Saturday.

  - Well above average temperatures and gusty south winds return
    early next week, with at least elevated fire weather
    conditions developing.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through Tonight)
Issued at 234 PM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025

An historic fire weather and high wind day is in progress across
northeast Oklahoma, with multiple 60 to 70 mph gusts recorded
in the past 1 to 2 hours, considerable blowing dust and the
beginnings of multiple fires visible on both satellite and area
radars. The dryline continues to push eastward across eastern
Oklahoma, eventually reaching northwest and west central
Arkansas, with worsening conditions expected areawide following
its passage. The main change with the updated forecast has been to
extend the Red Flag Warning and the High Wind Warning/Wind
Advisory headlines through 10 pm, with only slow improvement
expected after sunset.

In addition to the fire weather, high wind, and blowing dust
concerns, we are not out of the woods as it concerns strong to
severe thunderstorms either. A line of thunderstorms has developed
in the past hour or so in advance of the dryline across far
northeast Oklahoma, moving rapidly northeastward. Given the
current and expected instability trends from roughly the Oklahoma
and Arkansas state line and to the east, in concert with the
existing wind fields, a brief window will exist through the rest
of the afternoon for localized severe weather. That threat should
quickly shift north and east of the area by early evening.

Into the rest of the overnight, expect wind speeds to trend
downward, with some gustiness remaining into early Saturday
morning. Temperatures should be largely above normal.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Friday)
Issued at 234 PM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025

A cold front will move through the area during the day Saturday as
another, weaker disturbance pushes southeastward. This disturbance
will also bring a low chance for rain to parts of far southeast
Oklahoma and into west central Arkansas on Saturday. The troughing
over the weekend will shift east of the region by Monday, leading
to another round of above normal temperatures, gusty winds and
increasing fire weather concerns through Tuesday. Another storm
system will approach and move trough the region on Wednesday.
Current timing of this feature does not appear conducive to
another big fire weather day, with an early morning dryline
passage quickly replaced by a cold front. Low shower chances will
exist ahead of the dryline, with only modest moisture return
suggesting little in the way of thunderstorm potential.
Temperatures into Thursday will be near normal, with southerly
winds, a slight warmup and fire weather concerns returning for
Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1242 PM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025

Overall, VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period for
all sites. However, vsbys may be reduced this afternoon due to
blowing dust (or smoke if fires develop in the region),
especially across NE OK sites. Sustained SW winds between 25-35
kts expected this afternoon with gusts up to 45-55 kts. There is
low potential for a few gusts near 60 kts between 18-00z across
NE OK sites. Winds diminish this evening and become light by late
overnight out of the west-northwest. Additionally, showers or
thunderstorms may briefly affect NW AR sites... but impacts are
expected to remain limited and localized at this time due to fast
storm motions. There is a low potential for a strong or severe
thunderstorm.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   48  63  34  63 /   0  10  10   0
FSM   53  71  38  64 /   0  20  10   0
MLC   51  67  35  64 /   0  10   0   0
BVO   45  62  30  63 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   49  68  32  59 /   0  10  10   0
BYV   53  66  34  57 /  10  10  10   0
MKO   50  65  34  62 /   0  10   0   0
MIO   48  61  32  59 /   0  10  10   0
F10   49  63  35  62 /   0  10   0   0
HHW   52  69  38  64 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Red Flag Warning until 10 PM CDT this evening for OKZ049-053>076.

     High Wind Warning until 10 PM CDT this evening for OKZ054>071.

     Wind Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for OKZ049-053-
     072>076.

AR...Red Flag Warning until 10 PM CDT this evening for ARZ001-002-010-
     011-019-020-029.

     High Wind Warning until 10 PM CDT this evening for ARZ001-010.

     Wind Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for ARZ002-011-019-
     020-029.

&&

SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM....22
AVIATION...43

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