River Flood Warning 99, NWS Tulsa, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1248 AM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1248 AM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025

 - There is a low-medium chance (20-60%) for storms across parts
   of northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas through the early
   morning hours. Storms may contain very heavy rainfall and
   produce flash flooding.

 - Low chances (10-30%) of showers and thunderstorms this
   afternoon for portions of northeast Oklahoma and northwest
   Arkansas. Severe weather and flash flooding threats are not
   expected this afternoon.

 - Precipitation chances drop off and temperatures increase today
   as ridging builds in aloft. Hot and dry weather will likely
   persist through the weekend and into next week with Heat
   Advisories likely.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 1248 AM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025

Showers and thunderstorms are ongoing early this morning, with very
heavy rain and flash flooding occurring in portions of northwest
Arkansas and far northeast Oklahoma. With Thursday's frontal
boundary in place and a modest increase in the LLJ, a low to medium
chance of showers and thunderstorms will persist through the
overnight and early morning period across northeast Oklahoma and
northwest Arkansas. While CAMs vary in terms of QPF maximum, the
flash flooding risk will remain elevated tonight given very heavy
rainfall rates (1-3"/hr) with slow moving and training storms.
Highest flash flooding risk occurs along and north of Hwy 412 in NW
AR and into NE OK. Northwest Arkansas in particular has seen the
highest rainfall totals thus far, and flash flooding may become
significant here during the overnight hours. Please do not
attempt to enter or drive through flooded areas or roadways.
Additionally, be especially cautious when driving through
thunderstorms at night as it can be more difficult to identify
floodwater. Coverage will gradually decrease through the morning
hours and ridging will expand across the region. Aside for a low
chance of showers or storms this afternoon across far NE OK and NW
AR, a dry and hot day is in store for the region.

Heat Advisories remain in effect for portions of eastern Oklahoma
and west-central Arkansas today where heat indices are forecast to
climb to between 105-109 degrees. It may be necessary to add another
row of counties in northeast Oklahoma, but given some uncertainty
regarding lingering morning/ afternoon shower and storm potential...
and resulting cloud cover over these areas... have opted to hold off
for now. Counties that will be watched closely for an expansion
include Osage, Washington, Nowata, and Craig. Advisory or not, it
will be a hot day for most of the FA today and heat safety
precautions should be taken to reduce risk of heat illness while
outdoors.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Thursday)
Issued at 1248 AM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025

Predominantly dry conditions are forecast tonight through the end of
the period under the influence of upper level ridging. Low PoPs
could creep back into parts of W-Central Arkansas Saturday as a
tropical disturbance moves out of the gulf. However, much of this
activity is currently projected to remain east of the area and will
leave non-mentionable NBM PoPs in place. Otherwise, increasing heat
stress will be the main story during the long term. As temperatures
climb into the mid-upper 90s this weekend into next week, maximum
heat index values will increase to near or above 105 for much of the
region. As a result, heat headlines appear likely for the foreseeable
future. While it is mid-July, this is the first notable heat wave of
the season and heat safety precautions should continue to be
emphasized. Long range models tend to hold onto ridging across the C
CONUS in some form beyond the forecast period, with increased
chances for above average temperatures and below average
precipitation for the remainder of the month. This marks a
noticeable pattern change from the active and wet first half of the
summer.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1248 AM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025

Showers and storms ongoing along a surface boundary oriented from
west to east across northeast Oklahoma and far northwest Arkansas
are forecast to remain into the early morning hours. Within this
activity, very heavy rainfall and MVFR conditions are anticipated.
Will continue Tempo groups for timing of greater potential. Also
late tonight into Friday morning, a period of MVFR conditions and
areas of reduced visibility could develop behind the precip.
Otherwise, few high clouds south of I-40 to broken mid/high
clouds north of I-40 will continue tonight. During the day Friday,
cloud cover is forecast to become more scattered to broken mid
and high clouds for the CWA, and then look to scatter out Friday
evening. Winds through the period start out variable tonight,
become southerly for Friday and then weaken again Friday evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   96  77  97  77 /  20   0   0   0
FSM   98  77  98  77 /  10  10   0   0
MLC   96  74  96  75 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   96  74  98  75 /  20  10   0   0
FYV   94  74  95  73 /  10  10   0   0
BYV   93  74  96  74 /  20  10   0   0
MKO   95  75  95  75 /  10   0   0   0
MIO   93  75  96  75 /  30  10   0   0
F10   96  74  96  75 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   96  73  94  75 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for
     OKZ060>062-066-067-070>072-074-076.

AR...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for
     ARZ019-020-029.

&&

SHORT TERM...43
LONG TERM....43
AVIATION...20

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
458 AM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-191000-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
458 AM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...North of Highway 412 in Northeast Oklahoma.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

THUNDERSTORMS WITH DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Northeast Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

DANGEROUS HEAT.
	RISK...Elevated.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...Early Afternoon.

DISCUSSION...
Showers and thunderstorms across parts of northeast Oklahoma and
far northwest Arkansas are forecast to continue into mid morning
with additional chances for redevelopment this afternoon. Gusty
winds, dangerous lightning, and a heavy rain threat which could
increase flash flood potentials will be the main threats. Severe
weather is not currently anticipated. Rain chances should taper
off and exit this evening.

Dangerous heat will also be a concern this afternoon, with heat
index values between 100 and 109 degrees forecast across most of
eastern Oklahoma and also much of northwest Arkansas. A Heat
Advisory is in effect this afternoon for much of northeast and far
eastern Oklahoma as well as west central Arkansas.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Spotter Activation Not Expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.
SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...Dangerous Heat Potential.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
A prolonged period of hot and humid conditions is forecast for
this weekend through much of next week. Afternoon heat index
values of 100 to 110 degrees will be common across all eastern
Oklahoma and much of northwest Arkansas. The numerous days of hot
and humid conditions along with warm overnight low temperatures
will raise the heat stress risk across the region.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.

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Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
249 AM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0240 AM     Flash Flood      Siloam Springs          36.19N 94.54W
07/18/2025                   Benton             AR   Public

            Water over multiple roads in Siloam Springs,
            AR. Report relayed via social media.

&&