River Flood Warning 63, NWS Tulsa, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
646 AM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 147 AM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025

  - Strong to severe storms and heavy rainfall today. Similar
    pattern tonight into Saturday. Focus may shift slightly
    southward Saturday night into Sunday and even more southward
    Saturday night into Sunday.

  - The multiple rounds of rainfall will result in an increased
    flash and main-stem river flooding threat.

  - A cold front will bring a chance for storms early next week,
    with drying conditions expected midweek. Odds favor below
    average temperatures for this time of year through mid week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 147 AM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025

MCS continues to organize across N OK with storms strengthening
and likely spreading severe weather into portions of NE OK through
early morning. The warm front currently near Interstate 40 through
east central OK may arc northwestward into the developing complex
as it enters NE OK and offer a potential an uptick in complex
intensity. Otherwise, a slightly more stable airmass does reside
north of the warm front and the advancing complex may trend toward
a more isolated severe threat with eastward extent. Additionally,
potential for preceding convection north of the warm front may
expand in coverage ahead of the main wave and produce a zone of
enhanced heavier convection which would quickly raise flash flood
potential. This scenario could develop in a short time frame and
impacts could develop quickly. The overall system will be
progressive through the morning with widespread coverage becoming
more scattered by mid afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Thursday)
Issued at 136 AM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025

A similar pattern is likely to develop again tonight into the
morning hours on Saturday. While details often change depending on
the preceding convective influences, the idea of storms developing
by evening and expanding in coverage across the forecast area
tonight is generally well agreed upon at this time. Storms would
again be exiting the forecast area by afternoon on Saturday.

Saturday night into Sunday may mark a more southward focus for the
heaviest precip and favor the southern half of the forecast area.
Troughing deepens through the central CONUS on Sunday and drives
a stronger front and yet another storm complex southward. Current
indications are that this MCS would again favor areas west and
possibly the southern half of the forecast area. All the above
scenarios would pose a risk of severe weather and potential
flooding.

The active storm period likely wanes for early to mid next week
with seasonably pleasant weather.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 646 AM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025

MCS will continue to move east and southeast across southeast
Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas this morning. Within the
convection, LIFR/MVFR conditions, gusty winds and heavy rainfall
are anticipated. Behind the convection, a period of MVFR
conditions could develop mid to late morning into early afternoon
with the greater potential across northwest Arkansas. Scattered to
broken mid and high clouds are forecast mid afternoon into this
evening. Overnight tonight, chances for additional convection are
forecast and will add Prob30 group for general timing. Winds
through the period start out variable, become southwest to
northwest this afternoon, and then return to light/variable this
evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   84  70  84  66 /  70  80  70  20
FSM   86  72  86  69 /  80  60  70  50
MLC   87  73  87  66 /  80  50  60  50
BVO   82  66  82  63 /  60  80  60  10
FYV   82  69  82  64 /  90  70  80  30
BYV   82  67  81  64 /  90  70  80  30
MKO   84  69  84  65 /  90  60  80  40
MIO   81  67  81  64 /  90  70  70  20
F10   85  68  85  65 /  80  70  70  40
HHW   88  73  89  69 /  50  10  30  60

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flood Watch through Saturday afternoon for OKZ054>072.

AR...Flood Watch through Saturday afternoon for ARZ001-002-010-011-
     019-020.

&&

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...20

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
427 AM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-070930-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
427 AM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.
TORNADO.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Primarily northeast Oklahoma.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...Significant.
	AREA...Northeast Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...Significant.
	AREA...Along and north of Interstate 40.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

DISCUSSION...
A line of strong to severe thunderstorms will continue to sweep eastward
across areas along and north of Interstate 40 through the morning. Locally
damaging winds are likely along the line of storms. Additionally, a brief
tornado could develop at times within the most intense portion of the line
of storms. Extremely heavy rainfall rates have also been measured and
rapid onset flash flooding is likely which could impact the morning
commute. Storms will end across the region by mid afternoon. A brief lull
in thunderstorm coverage is likely from late afternoon through mid evening.
Thereafter, additional storms are expected to develop across the region
and increase in coverage into the overnight hours. Severe weather is
possible again tonight into Saturday morning.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Activation of the Regional Spotter Network Expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.
SATURDAY...Severe Thunderstorm and Heavy Rain Potential.
SUNDAY and MONDAY...Thunderstorm Potential...Heavy Rain Potential.
TUESDAY...No Hazards.
WEDNESDAY and THURSDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
Strong to severe storms may be ongoing early Saturday as another
thunderstorm complex impacts the region. A similar pattern is likely to
develop Saturday night into Sunday with the focus for strongest storms
shifting southward to areas along and south of Interstate 40. Yet another
thunderstorm complex is likely Sunday night into Monday and may impact
southeast Oklahoma. Repeated instances of heavy rain will likely lead
to flash flooding and main stem river flooding.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.

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