River Flood Warning 106, NWS Tulsa, OK

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Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
456 AM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-241000-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
456 AM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.
TORNADO.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...Afternoon.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...Elevated.
	AREA...Areawide.
	ONSET...Ongoing Across Northeast Oklahoma, Mid Morning Elsewhere.

HEAVY RAIN & FLOODING.
	RISK...Elevated.
	AREA...Areawide.
	ONSET...Afternoon.

DANGEROUS HEAT.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Southeast Oklahoma.
	ONSET...Afternoon.

DISCUSSION...
An ongoing complex of storms Tuesday morning across northeastern
Oklahoma will continue to pose a severe thunderstorm and heavy
rain threat as they move eastward into Arkansas. A lull in
activity is expected through the rest of the morning into the
early afternoon before more storms develop as a strong upper level
wave moves over the region. Again, more widespread, robust severe
convection will be possible Tuesday afternoon through the evening
hours, with all severe hazards possible including an increase
tornado threat across eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas. In
addition, widespread heavy rainfall on top of already saturated
ground could lead to more widespread flooding concerns, both flash
flooding and mainstem river flooding. Rainfall amounts of 2 to 5
inches of rain will be possible over the area by Wednesday
morning.

Hot and humid conditions will also develop ahead of the cold front
across southeast Oklahoma this afternoon where heat index values
could hit or exceed 100 degrees in some locations.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Activation of the Regional Spotter Network Likely.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.
WEDNESDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...No Hazards.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
Scattered thunderstorms will again be possible during the day
Wednesday as the upper level low moves overhead. Severe weather
chances will be low with this activity, but some hail gusty winds
could accompany some of the strongest storms Wednesday afternoon
across northeast Oklahoma into northwest Arkansas.

After Wednesday, the pattern will quiet with temperatures around
seasonal normals and drier weather expected through the rest of
the week.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PLANNING STATEMENT...
Emergency managers and area responders should monitor the latest
information for tonight and Tuesday. Given recent rains in some
areas, and the potential for excessive rains through tonight,
preparations for more widespread flooding issues may need to
happen.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
810 AM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025

ARZ002-231345-
Carroll AR-
810 AM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN CARROLL COUNTY
THROUGH 845 AM CDT...

At 810 AM CDT, Doppler radar indicated a strong thunderstorm near
Osage, moving east at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down small tree limbs and blow
         around unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation
         is possible.

Locations in or near the path include...
Coin...                           Carrollton...
Osage...                          Rudd...
Delmar...                         Connor...
Rule...                           Green Forest...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3612 9346 3626 9353 3639 9330 3612 9330
TIME...MOT...LOC 1310Z 250DEG 19KT 3621 9342

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH