Flash Flood Warning 70, NWS Tulsa, OK

623 
WGUS74 KTSA 021241
FFSTSA

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
741 AM CDT Sat Aug 2 2025

OKC079-021251-
/O.EXP.KTSA.FF.W.0070.000000T0000Z-250802T1245Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Le Flore OK-
741 AM CDT Sat Aug 2 2025

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 745 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR 
SOUTHEASTERN LE FLORE COUNTY...

The heavy rain has ended and flood waters are receding. A Flood 
Advisory remains in effect. Please continue to heed remaining road 
closures.

&&

LAT...LON 3468 9473 3475 9469 3469 9451 3462 9452

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1227 AM CDT Sat Aug 2 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1222 AM CDT Sat Aug 2 2025

 - Cooler than normal weather through Monday with highs in the 80s
   and lows in the upper 50s to 60s.

 - Shower and storm chances return Sunday into Monday as another
   shortwave affects the area.

 - Warming trend through next week with a return to above average
   temperatures by Wednesday. Heat headlines also look to return.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through Today)
Issued at 1222 AM CDT Sat Aug 2 2025

A remnant MCV tracking east near the Red River will keep low to
medium (15-40%) shower and storm chances going south of Interstate
40 overnight. PWAT values around 2" and weak stearing flow will
maintain a heavy rainfall threat with the stronger and more
persistent activity before it moves completely out of the area by
late Saturday morning. Light northeasterly surface winds associated
with a ridge centered over the upper Midwest will also contribute to
keeping smoke from Canadian wildfires in place across far northern
Oklahoma but this is expected to lessen after sunrise. Aside from an
afternoon cu field which will likely be most expansive over central
into eastern Oklahoma, mostly sunny skies will cap off a pleasant
early August day.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Saturday)
Issued at 1222 AM CDT Sat Aug 2 2025

With the mid-level ridge still centered over the Desert Southwest
and northwest flow aloft over the region, the cooler than normal and
relatively drier airmass will remain in place through the remainder
of the weekend. Guidance continues to favor another shortwave
developing convection across the High Plains Saturday evening with
upscale growth into an MCS that tracks across KS and the OK and TX
Panhandles toward eastern OK Sunday morning. The upper trough is
expected to strengthen and help maintain or regenerate storms closer
to the area that then move through more of eastern OK Sunday
afternoon and evening. The eastward extent of this activity is
somewhat in question with the latest guidance keeping the highest
PoPs west of U.S. 75. Cloud cover and showers from the proximity of
the exiting trough will help keep temperatures cooler than average
again on Monday.

The upper ridge strengthens and builds eastward early next week
estabilishing a warming trend which continues through at least
Friday. A few terrain-based showers will be possible on Tuesday
otherwise focus will shift to shortwaves topping the expanding ridge
to the west which could initiate nocturnal storms that make an
attempt to move into portions of central and eastern Oklahoma
Wednesdy and Thursday. Left pops below 15% for now given
uncertainties with both timing of convection and strength of
building ridge this far out. The likelihood of heat headlines will
grow Wednesday into Friday as strengthening southerly flow
associated with a lee trough pushes deeper moisture back into the
region.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1222 AM CDT Sat Aug 2 2025

MVFR ceilings will persist through much of Saturday morning at
KMLC, otherwise VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast
period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   85  67  85  67 /   0   0  10  30
FSM   89  67  88  69 /  10   0   0  10
MLC   86  67  86  67 /  20   0  10  30
BVO   85  62  85  62 /   0   0  10  30
FYV   85  60  85  62 /   0   0   0  10
BYV   85  59  85  60 /   0   0   0  10
MKO   86  65  85  65 /   0   0  10  20
MIO   85  62  85  64 /   0   0   0  10
F10   85  64  85  65 /  10   0  10  40
HHW   85  67  86  67 /  30   0  10  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....24
AVIATION...05

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
506 PM CDT Fri Aug 1 2025

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-021030-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
506 PM CDT Fri Aug 1 2025

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...Late Afternoon and Tonight.

THUNDERSTORMS WITH DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.
	RISK...Elevated.
	AREA...South of Interstate 40.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...South of Interstate 40.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

DISCUSSION...
Showers and scattered thunderstorms mainly south of Interstate 40
will remain forecast through this evening while an elevated
frontal boundary sags southward through the region. Gusty wind
potential along with a heavy rain threat which could increase
flash flood potentials will exist with the stronger storms. A
limited potential remains for a strong storm or two, however
severe weather is not currently anticipated through this evening.
An additional slight chance of showers and storms remains across
mainly southeast Oklahoma overnight tonight into Saturday morning.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Local Spotter Activation May Be Needed.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.
SATURDAY...No Hazards.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
TUESDAY...No Hazards.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...Dangerous Heat Potential.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
Scattered showers and storms will return late Sunday into early
Monday, with locally heavy rainfall possible. Hot weather will
return during the second half of next week, with heat index
values back over the century mark.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.