Flash Flood Warning 64, NWS Tulsa, OK

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
800 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025

...New SHORT TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 113 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025

 - Potential for locally heavy rainfall exists thru Tuesday
   morning in association with an MCV tracking across southeast
   Oklahoma into northwest Arkansas. A Flood Watch is in effect
   thru 10 AM Tuesday morning.

 - Rain/storm chances become more spotty and diurnally driven by
   Tuesday, with the best coverage remaining again in the east and
   south during the afternoon.

 - A weak front approaching the area from the north will bring chances
   for storms for far northeast Oklahoma and far northwest
   Arkansas Thursday into Thursday night.

 - Precipitation chances drop off and temperatures increase by the
   end of the week as ridging builds in aloft. Hot and dry weather
   will likely persist thru the weekend and into next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of tonight)
Issued at 756 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025

Visible satellite imagery shows a well defined MCV spinning over
Atoka County, OK as of this writing. Showers and thunderstorms
have developed on the northeast/east side of the center, and are moving
northeastward across Pushmataha and Choctaw counties. Rainfall
rates have jumped up between 1-2 inches per hour in the heaviest
part of the rain shield. Trends in the most recent runs of the
HRRR show the MCV (and moderate to heavy rain) continuing to shift
northeastward into Le Flore/Sequoyah counties in OK through mid-
evening and eventually across most of west-central and northwest
AR after midnight tonight. Rainfall amounts between 1-2 inches
will be likely, especially on the eastern fringes of the MCV, with
local amounts around 3-4 inches possible in spots through
daybreak tomorrow morning. Flooding/flash flooding will remain the
biggest concern across far southeast OK and most of west-
central/northwest AR this evening and overnight tonight. A Flood
Watch remains in effect for this general area until 15z/10AM
Tuesday morning.

Currently, there are a few spotty showers lingering across
northeast OK and far northwest AR. These should fade away by or
just after sunset this evening and these locations are expected to
remain mostly dry through the night. However, patchy fog may develop again
for these areas after midnight tonight. Made some quick
adjustments to the PoP/Wx grids to better reflect current trends
through 12z/7AM tomorrow morning. Otherwise, the rest of the
forecast through tonight remains on track.

Mejia

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday Afternoon through Monday)
Issued at 113 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025

The MCV/low is expected to depart to the northeast by mid-morning
Tuesday. In its wake, rain/storm coverage will be more isolated
to widely scattered and during afternoon peak heating in the east
and south, and most activity is expected to die off by evening.
The next focus for storms will be a front that will approach but
likely not move into the forecast area Thursday. Low storm chances
will be maintained near the Kansas and Missouri borders.

Ridging is expected to build in aloft by the end of the week, with
the latest data suggesting this will persist thru the weekend and
into the first part of next week. Rain/storm chances go down, and
the heat will go up. By the weekend, afternoon heat indices
between 100 and 105F will be common. Heat headlines may be
required.

Lacy

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 644 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025

A MCV currently lifting into southeast Oklahoma will make its way
northeast through the CWA overnight tonight into Tuesday morning.
Showers and thunderstorms associated with the low are forecast to
move across southeast Oklahoma into northwest Arkansas. Will
continue Tempo groups for timing of greater precip potential for
KMLC/KFSM/KFYV/KXNA/KROG. Within the precip, MVFR conditions and
heavy rainfall are possible. Otherwise, scattered to broken mid
and high clouds should remain common for the CWA tonight. During
the day Tuesday, any lingering MVFR conditions should lift back to
VFR by late morning/early afternoon with mid and high clouds
again forecast Tuesday afternoon. There is a slight chance of
showers and storms during the afternoon hours, though for now will
hold off on mentioning due to uncertainty of coverage/location.
Winds start out variable tonight and become southerly Tuesday
afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   73  92  76  93 /   0  10   0  10
FSM   73  91  75  94 /  40  20  10  10
MLC   71  91  74  93 /  20  20   0  10
BVO   70  92  73  94 /   0  10   0  10
FYV   70  88  72  91 /  30  20  10  20
BYV   69  88  72  92 /  40  30  10  20
MKO   72  90  74  91 /  20  10  10  10
MIO   71  90  74  92 /  20  10   0  10
F10   71  91  74  91 /  10  10   0  10
HHW   71  89  72  91 /  40  30   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flood Watch through Tuesday morning for OKZ049-053-069-072-
     074>076.

AR...Flood Watch through Tuesday morning for ARZ001-002-010-011-019-
     020-029.

&&

SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...20

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
448 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-151030-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
448 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...This Evening and Tonight.

HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Southeast Oklahoma and Western Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

THUNDERSTORMS WITH DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.
	RISK...Elevated.
	AREA...Southeast Oklahoma and Western Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

POOR VISIBILITY.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Far Northeast Oklahoma and Far Northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...After Midnight.

DISCUSSION...
Isolated to scattered showers and storms are forecast for much of
eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas into early evening. Then
mainly over southeast and far eastern Oklahoma as well as western
Arkansas tonight as an area of low pressure lifts over the region.
Slow storm motions combined with abundant amounts of moisture
will continue a heavy rain threat that could lead to flash
flooding through tonight. A Flood Watch is in effect from
southeast Oklahoma into northwest Arkansas through Tuesday
morning. Severe weather is not currently anticipated.

Also overnight tonight into early Tuesday morning, there remains a
potential for patchy fog development over far northeast Oklahoma
into far northwest Arkansas. Conditions should improve by mid
morning Tuesday.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Spotter Activation Not Expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
FRIDAY...No Hazards.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...Dangerous Heat Potential.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
Storms will continue to focus across southeast Oklahoma and
western Arkansas Tuesday before dissipating Tuesday evening. A
weak front will bring low chances for storms closer to the Kansas
and Missouri borders Thursday. Storm chances will dwindle by the
end of the week as ridging builds in aloft. As this occurs
temperatures will climb, with afternoon heat indices 100 to 105
each day over the weekend and into next week.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.