Flash Flood Warning 57, NWS Tulsa, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
556 AM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1208 AM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025

 - Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms each day
   through at least Monday, with potential for locally heavy
   rainfall.

 - An active weather regime continues into next week with daily thunderstorm
   chances.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 1208 AM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025

Showers and thunderstorms are expected to increase in coverage
towards sunrise across northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas,
with a slow southeast drift to the precipitation expected during
the morning. Locally heavy rainfall will be possible, and a flood
watch remains in effect for parts of northeast Oklahoma through 1
pm.

The latest model data, including the various CAM's, are showing
considerable variability in the location of showers and storms this
afternoon, and where heavy rainfall may remain a concern. It is
possible that the current flood watch may need to be extended in
time, location, or both depending on how the situation evolves
today. High temperatures today will remain below normal, ranging
from the mid 80s to lower 90s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Friday)
Issued at 1208 AM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025

A slow moving upper trough will remain over the area through at
least Monday and possibly Tuesday. Scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms will continue through that time, with the potential
for locally heavy rainfall from time to time. The heaviest rainfall
may end up favoring the overnight and morning time frames, and
additional flood watches may be needed during the coming days.
Temperatures will remain well below normal into the first part of
next week.

Once the upper trough lifts out of the area, shower and storm
coverage will diminish for the middle to latter part of next week,
but not completely go away. Temperatures will also warm back to
closer to the seasonal averages for the latter half of the week. A
weak cold front may approach the area late in the week, but the
latest data does cast some doubt on this as upper ridging becomes
more dominant by that time.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 553 AM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will will continue at times
through the day. If CAM guidance is to be believed, the better
chances of storms will be through about 15Z, and then again in
the afternoon after 20Z. Most areas will see ceilings develop, but
they should generally remain at or above 3 kft except in heavy
showers today. Visibility could also briefly drop but will
generally remain 3 SM or greater otherwise. Winds will be out of
the south at 5-15 kts, but may be gusty and erratic near storms.
A few of the storms will produce locally heavy rain and severe
weather potential. Ceilings and visibility will then drop Sunday
morning with MVFR criteria or below.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   87  70  83  70 /  50  50  60  30
FSM   90  73  87  73 /  70  50  70  20
MLC   88  71  85  70 /  70  60  80  30
BVO   88  69  83  68 /  40  50  50  20
FYV   86  69  84  68 /  70  50  70  20
BYV   87  69  85  69 /  70  30  70  20
MKO   86  70  83  70 /  80  50  70  30
MIO   87  69  83  69 /  40  40  60  20
F10   86  69  82  70 /  80  60  80  30
HHW   91  72  88  71 /  50  60  60  30

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flood Watch until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for OKZ054>064.

AR...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...06

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
419 AM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-131245-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
419 AM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Areawide.
	ONSET...Late Morning.

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Areawide.
	ONSET...Late Morning.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...Elevated.
	AREA...Areawide.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

DISCUSSION...
Showers and thunderstorms are beginning to develop near and north
of I-40 this morning. Scattered storm activity will likely
continue through the morning. Over time, the threat for heavy
rainfall and severe weather will increase. A few storms may
produce damaging wind and large hail today, though most will
not be severe. With high moisture content, some storms may
produce very heavy rainfall and the potential for flash flooding.
A Flood Watch is in effect. Temperatures will not be as hot as
yesterday.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Local Spotter Activation May Be Needed.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.
SUNDAY TO FRIDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
Daily storm chances will be present for the next week. Confidence
is lower on exact timing and location of individual storms. Heavy
rainfall will occur from time to time, with flash flooding
possible. A few storms may become severe, particularly south of
I-40 on Saturday, but overall the threat is low. Temperatures will
remain mild considering the frequent storminess.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
607 AM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025

OKZ060-061-067-121145-
Tulsa OK-Rogers OK-Wagoner OK-
607 AM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN ROGERS...
NORTHWESTERN WAGONER AND EAST CENTRAL TULSA COUNTIES THROUGH 645 AM
CDT...

At 607 AM CDT, Doppler radar indicated a strong thunderstorm 3 miles
southwest of Catoosa, moving east at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts 40 to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down small tree limbs and blow
         around unsecured objects.

Locations in or near the path include...
Catoosa...                        Tulsa International Airport...
Tulsa...                          Owasso...

This includes Interstate 44 between mile markers 227 and 240.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3612 9593 3625 9592 3627 9570 3610 9568
TIME...MOT...LOC 1107Z 266DEG 23KT 3617 9583

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
613 AM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025

ARZ001-010-121145-
Benton AR-Washington AR-
613 AM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT CENTRAL BENTON AND NORTHEASTERN
WASHINGTON COUNTIES THROUGH 645 AM CDT...

At 613 AM CDT, Doppler radar indicated a strong thunderstorm over
Springdale, moving east at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down small tree limbs and blow
         around unsecured objects.

Locations in or near the path include...
Springdale...                     Johnson...
Lowell...                         Elm Springs...
Goshen...                         Sonora...
Tontitown...                      Fayetteville...
Rogers...

This includes Interstate 49 between mile markers 68 and 79.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3613 9427 3625 9429 3629 9402 3609 9399
TIME...MOT...LOC 1113Z 261DEG 18KT 3618 9413

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
614 AM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025

OKZ066-121145-
Okmulgee OK-
614 AM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN OKMULGEE COUNTY
THROUGH 645 AM CDT...

At 614 AM CDT, Doppler radar indicated a strong thunderstorm 5 miles
northwest of Beggs, moving east at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down small tree limbs and blow
         around unsecured objects.

Locations in or near the path include...
Beggs...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3586 9603 3574 9603 3578 9619 3586 9619
TIME...MOT...LOC 1114Z 273DEG 8KT 3581 9613

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH