Flash Flood Warning 54, NWS Tulsa, OK

106 
WGUS74 KTSA 081524
FFSTSA

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1024 AM CDT Tue Jul 8 2025

ARC033-OKC001-061-135-081800-
/O.CON.KTSA.FF.W.0054.000000T0000Z-250708T1800Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Crawford AR-Adair OK-Haskell OK-Sequoyah OK-
1024 AM CDT Tue Jul 8 2025

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS 
AFTERNOON FOR WEST CENTRAL CRAWFORD, SEQUOYAH, SOUTHERN ADAIR AND 
NORTHEASTERN HASKELL COUNTIES...

At 1024 AM CDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing 
heavy rain across the warned area. Between 4 and 7 inches of rain 
have fallen. Additional rainfall amounts up to 1 inch are possible 
in the warned area. Flash flooding is ongoing or expected to begin 
shortly.

HAZARD...Life threatening flash flooding. Thunderstorms producing
         flash flooding.

SOURCE...Radar.

IMPACT...Life threatening flash flooding of creeks and streams,
         urban areas, highways, streets and underpasses.

Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
  Sallisaw...                        Muldrow...
Vian...                            Keota...
Gans...                            Marble City...
Tamaha...                          Brushy...
Brushy Lake State Park...          Short...
Lake Tenkiller State Park...       Mc Key...
Box...                             Uniontown...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

&&

LAT...LON 3564 9494 3564 9481 3567 9481 3575 9446
      3548 9443 3535 9472 3535 9477 3533 9479
      3532 9481 3530 9481 3521 9501 3561 9504

FLASH FLOOD...RADAR INDICATED
FLASH FLOOD DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE

$$

06

082 
WGUS74 KTSA 081606
FFSTSA

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1106 AM CDT Tue Jul 8 2025

ARC033-OKC001-061-135-081800-
/O.CON.KTSA.FF.W.0054.000000T0000Z-250708T1800Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Crawford AR-Adair OK-Haskell OK-Sequoyah OK-
1106 AM CDT Tue Jul 8 2025

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS 
AFTERNOON FOR WEST CENTRAL CRAWFORD, SEQUOYAH, SOUTHERN ADAIR AND 
NORTHEASTERN HASKELL COUNTIES...

At 1106 AM CDT, Emergency management reported flash flooding from 
thunderstorms that dropped very heavy rain across the warned area. 
Between 4 and 7 inches of rain have fallen. Additional rainfall 
amounts up to 1 inch are possible in the warned area. Multiple water 
rescues from vehicles are underway.

HAZARD...Life threatening flash flooding. Thunderstorms producing
         flash flooding.

SOURCE...Emergency management reported.

IMPACT...Life threatening flash flooding of creeks and streams,
         urban areas, highways, streets and underpasses.

Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
  Sallisaw...                        Muldrow...
Vian...                            Keota...
Gans...                            Marble City...
Tamaha...                          Brushy...
Brushy Lake State Park...          Short...
Lake Tenkiller State Park...       Mc Key...
Box...                             Uniontown...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

&&

LAT...LON 3564 9494 3564 9481 3567 9481 3575 9446
      3548 9443 3535 9472 3535 9477 3533 9479
      3532 9481 3530 9481 3521 9501 3561 9504

FLASH FLOOD...OBSERVED
FLASH FLOOD DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE

$$

Lacy

022 
WGUS54 KTSA 081734
FFWTSA
ARC033-OKC001-061-135-081900-
/O.EXT.KTSA.FF.W.0054.000000T0000Z-250708T1900Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Flash Flood Warning
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1234 PM CDT Tue Jul 8 2025

The National Weather Service in Tulsa has extended the

* Flash Flood Warning for...
  West Central Crawford County in northwestern Arkansas...
  Sequoyah County in east central Oklahoma...
  Southern Adair County in northeastern Oklahoma...
  Northeastern Haskell County in southeastern Oklahoma...

* Until 200 PM CDT.

* At 1234 PM CDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing 
  heavy rain moving into  the warned area. Between 4 and 7 inches of 
  rain already have fallen. Additional rainfall amounts up to 1 inch 
  are possible in the warned area. The threat for flash flooding 
  will continue to remain high over the next hour to 2 hours.

  HAZARD...Life threatening flash flooding. Thunderstorms
           producing flash flooding.

  SOURCE...Radar.

  IMPACT...Life threatening flash flooding of creeks and streams,
           urban areas, highways, streets and underpasses.

* Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
  Sallisaw...                        Muldrow...
  Vian...                            Keota...
  Gans...                            Marble City...
  Tamaha...                          Brushy...
  Brushy Lake State Park...          Short...
  Lake Tenkiller State Park...       Mc Key...
  Box...                             Uniontown...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

&&

LAT...LON 3564 9494 3564 9481 3567 9481 3575 9446
      3548 9443 3535 9472 3535 9477 3533 9479
      3532 9481 3530 9481 3521 9501 3561 9504

FLASH FLOOD...RADAR INDICATED
FLASH FLOOD DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE

$$

Lacy

890 
WGUS74 KTSA 081856
FFSTSA

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
156 PM CDT Tue Jul 8 2025

ARC033-OKC001-061-135-081906-
/O.EXP.KTSA.FF.W.0054.000000T0000Z-250708T1900Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Crawford AR-Adair OK-Haskell OK-Sequoyah OK-
156 PM CDT Tue Jul 8 2025

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 2 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR 
WEST CENTRAL CRAWFORD, SEQUOYAH, SOUTHERN ADAIR AND NORTHEASTERN 
HASKELL COUNTIES...
...REPLACED BY A FLOOD WARNING...

Please continue to heed remaining road closures.

A Flood Warning has been issued for portions of this area thru this 
evening. Please see this product for more information.

&&

LAT...LON 3564 9494 3564 9481 3567 9481 3575 9446
      3548 9443 3535 9472 3535 9477 3533 9479
      3532 9481 3530 9481 3521 9501 3561 9504

$$

Lacy

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
554 AM CDT Tue Jul 8 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1202 AM CDT Tue Jul 8 2025

   - Daily rain and storm chances will continue through the next
     week with higher chances Tuesday and again this weekend.

   - Limited severe potential Tuesday with locally damaging wind
     the primary threat. Also, a heavy rain threat will exist
     through Tuesday evening.

   - Afternoon heat indices will creep up into the 95-105F range
     toward the latter half of next week, with a weak cold front
     possible during the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1202 AM CDT Tue Jul 8 2025

A compact mid level low currently located over eastern Oklahoma
was slowly move eastward Monday night. At the same time, a deep
moisture plume from the Texas Gulf coast, resided across eastern
Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas. The combination of these features
along with continued elevated instability were allowing for
scattered showers and a few storms to remain ongoing across east
central Oklahoma and parts of northwest Arkansas.

This mid level compact low and its associated wind shift is
expected to continue its eastward path into southeast Oklahoma and
northwest Arkansas by 12z Tuesday. With the disturbance holding
over the region Monday night, will continue shower and
thunderstorm chances mainly along and east of the associated wind
shift south/east of Interstate 44 through northwest Arkansas.
There could be an uptick in coverage toward sunrise Tuesday
morning and will carry slightly higher PoPs for that time period.

The compact mid level low moves through the CWA Tuesday morning
ahead of the main area of low pressure currently pushing southeast
through the Central Plains. This shortwave is progged to move into
the region Tuesday afternoon and looks to exit Tuesday late evening.
In response, to the features moving through the region, storm
chances continue Tuesday morning and increase Tuesday afternoon into
Tuesday evening with the greater potential across southeast Oklahoma
into northwest Arkansas where the deep moisture plume is expected to
remain.

Slightly higher deep layer shear values, max heating and both
surface/elevated instability interacting with the afternoon
shortwave will help to create limited severe potentials over the
CWA. Locally damaging winds are the primary threat. At the same
time, with the ample amounts of moisture over the region, a heavy
rain threat exists through Tuesday evening.

In the wake of the exiting shortwave Tuesday night, short-term
solutions indicate a secondary compact low developing over the
Central Plains and moving southward through Oklahoma. There is
differing guidance with a potential MCS from this disturbance and
for now will keep low chance PoPs overnight Tuesday night.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 1202 AM CDT Tue Jul 8 2025

Shower and thunderstorm chances look to remain forecast across
mainly the southern half of the CWA Wednesday with the secondary
disturbance moving southeast near the Red River. Behind this
disturbance, more northerly flow is expected into Wednesday night
which could help to push the deep moisture plume east and southeast
of the CWA. In response, will keep PoPs below mentionable criteria
for Thursday.

The ridge of high pressure that currently remains over the Desert
Southwest is progged to flatten out Wednesday night/Thursday as a
wave moves into the Pacific Northwest. As the ridge flattens out, an
increase in southerly low level flow will aid in warmer and more
humid conditions Thursday into Friday. Heat index values late week
of upper 90s to near 105 degrees remains possible across much of
the CWA.

With the more zonal flow late week, a leading shortwave to the wave
moving into the Pacific Northwest is forecast to push through the
Plains Friday with the parent wave moving through the Plains
Saturday. A frontal boundary with the parent trof axis could
approach the CWA during the weekend. However, there remains
uncertainty with just how far south this boundary can travel before
lifting back northward. Either way, shower and thunderstorm chances
return Friday and continue off and on through the upcoming weekend
across the CWA. With the return of rain chances, temperatures for
the weekend look to be slightly cooler compared to the warmest days
of the week being Thursday/Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 554 AM CDT Tue Jul 8 2025

Thunderstorms have developed over the last couple of hours in
response to the disturbance moving through the area. Impacts to
MLC and FSM have already occurred, with continued impacts expected
for FSM and potential for impacts at FYV later this morning.
Uncertainty exists as to whether this will make its way as far
north as XNA and ROG and depending on trends over the next 20
minutes or so, will either leave a mention out completely or
include a near term PROB30 at those two sites. The current
expectation is that this early development could suppress further
development until this afternoon and the TAFs have trended drier
late morning into early afternoon as a result.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   92  73  92  73 /  30  20  10   0
FSM   90  75  91  73 /  60  30  30  10
MLC   90  73  89  71 /  50  30  20  10
BVO   91  70  91  69 /  40  20  10   0
FYV   88  70  89  68 /  60  20  20  10
BYV   89  70  89  69 /  60  20  30   0
MKO   90  72  91  71 /  40  20  20   0
MIO   90  71  90  70 /  40  20  10   0
F10   90  72  90  71 /  40  20  20   0
HHW   88  72  89  71 /  60  30  40  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...22

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
437 AM CDT Tue Jul 8 2025

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-090945-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
437 AM CDT Tue Jul 8 2025

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest and West Central Arkansas.
	ONSET...Early Afternoon.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest and West Central Arkansas.
	ONSET...This Morning.

DANGEROUS HEAT.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and West Central Arkansas.
	ONSET...Early Afternoon.

DISCUSSION...
Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms are ongoing this
morning across areas south and east of Interstate 44. This
activity may persist to some degree through the remainder of the
morning, with primarily a highly localized heavy rain threat.
During the afternoon, additional, stronger thunderstorms are
expected to develop, posing a greater threat for locally damaging
winds and heavy rain potential. The afternoon thunderstorms should
continue into the early evening, with a downward trend in coverage
and intensity toward midnight.

The heat and humidity will increase this afternoon compared to the
last few days with widespread heat index values from 100 to 105
degrees across portions of eastern Oklahoma and west central
Arkansas.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Local Spotter Activation May Be Needed.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.
WEDNESDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
THURSDAY...No Hazards.
FRIDAY...Thunderstorm and Dangerous Heat Potential.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
Wednesday afternoon and evening should feature yet another round
of thunderstorms, focused south and east of Interstate 44, posing
a limited threat for severe weather and locally heavy rain.
Thursday should provide a brief break from the daily showers and
thunderstorms that will return Friday and continue into early next
week. Hot and humid conditions will persist each day this week,
peaking on Friday with potential for a few locations to see heat
indices greater than 105.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.