Flash Flood Warning 51, NWS Tulsa, OK

627 
WGUS74 KTSA 031644
FFSTSA

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1144 AM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025

OKC121-031654-
/O.EXP.KTSA.FF.W.0051.000000T0000Z-250703T1645Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Pittsburg OK-
1144 AM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 1145 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR 
WEST CENTRAL PITTSBURG COUNTY...

The heavy rain has ended. Flooding is no longer expected to pose a 
threat. Please continue to heed remaining road closures.

&&

LAT...LON 3484 9600 3492 9609 3505 9609 3506 9607
      3509 9606 3511 9604 3512 9603 3512 9601
      3514 9601 3500 9573 3481 9571

$$

06

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
623 AM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1123 PM CDT Wed Jul 2 2025

   - Low to medium (20-50%) chance of showers and storms through
     the weekend. Locally heavy rainfall, downburst winds, and
     lightning will be the primary hazards.

   - Humid conditions will return by the end of this week with
     heat indices reaching 95-100 F across the area by Saturday
     and continuing through early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through Thursday)
Issued at 1048 PM CDT Wed Jul 2 2025

A few high-based showers continue to move across SE OK this
evening, and should see this continue with some expansion in
coverage possible as moist advection persists in the lower
levels. Most short range guidance continues to support further
development into parts of northeast OK and perhaps west central AR
Thursday morning and through the afternoon with the arrival of
slightly stronger forcing and continued influence of subtropical
Pacific moisture plume, but development into northwest AR is less
likely as deeper moisture is lacking farther east. Fairly
persistent cloud cover for most areas will keep daytime temps
below normal, albeit with humid conditions and light winds.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 1048 PM CDT Wed Jul 2 2025

Showers and storms will diminish Thursday evening, though at least
spotty light showers may persist through the night. Additional
expansion of showers thunderstorms are anticipated late Thursday
night into Friday morning as a weak trough moves across the plains
to our north. PWAT values will be approaching 2 inches in some
places by that time, so any more organized cells could produce
localized heavy rain, with emphasis remaining across eastern OK
in proximity to deepest moisture. By late afternoon and evening
the overall forcing weakens and shifts north, but with deep
moisture remaining in place at least a low threat of a shower or
storm will persist through the evening of the 4th, however most
locations should remain dry.

As we move into next week, the upper ridge becomes established
over the southwest states, with local area remaining under weak
NW flow. The overall pattern favors a return to temps closer to
normal, but will also maintain at least low thunderstorm chances
for some areas through mid-week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 622 AM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025

Ongoing showers and thunderstorms at the start of the forecast
period will lower ceilings and visibilities at KMLC. Additional
showers and storms will be possible this afternoon, with the best
chances at the eastern Oklahoma sites and at KFSM. VFR conditions
will prevail outside of storms.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   88  71  89  74 /  20  10  30  20
FSM   90  73  92  74 /  20   0  20  10
MLC   86  70  89  72 /  40  20  30  10
BVO   88  68  89  72 /  20  10  30  20
FYV   89  68  90  71 /  10   0  20  10
BYV   90  69  90  70 /   0   0  20  10
MKO   86  70  87  72 /  20  10  30  10
MIO   89  69  90  71 /  10   0  30  10
F10   85  70  87  72 /  30  10  30  10
HHW   85  72  88  72 /  40  20  30  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...05

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
546 AM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-041000-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
546 AM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Mainly Eastern Oklahoma.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

THUNDERSTORMS WITH DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.
	RISK...Elevated.
	AREA...Mainly Eastern Oklahoma and West Central Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

DISCUSSION...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are ongoing early this morning
across parts of southeast Oklahoma. Additional shower and storm
development is expected through the day across eastern Oklahoma
and west central Arkansas. Locally heavy rainfall will be
possible, but severe weather is not expected.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Spotter Activation Not Expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.
FRIDAY through WEDNESDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
Daily thunderstorm chances will continue through the holiday
weekend into next week. Locally heavy rainfall, gusty winds, and
dangerous lightning will be the main threats from the storms.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.