Flash Flood Warning 103, NWS Tulsa, OK

843 
WGUS74 KTSA 250757
FFSTSA

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
257 AM CDT Sat Oct 25 2025

OKC037-250807-
/O.EXP.KTSA.FF.W.0103.000000T0000Z-251025T0800Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Creek OK-
257 AM CDT Sat Oct 25 2025

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 3 AM CDT EARLY THIS MORNING 
FOR CENTRAL CREEK COUNTY...

Light rain will continue through Saturday morning, however 
additional amounts will generally be less than one half inch. The 
risk of heavy rain has ended. Flooding may be ongoing as waters 
recede but additional flash flooding is no longer expected to pose a 
threat. Please continue to heed remaining road closures.

A Flood Watch remains in effect until 700 AM CDT for portions of 
east central, northeast, and southeast Oklahoma.

&&

LAT...LON 3586 9605 3586 9619 3585 9619 3583 9625
      3583 9662 3609 9662 3608 9655 3608 9630
      3606 9615 3601 9608 3591 9604 3587 9604

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
637 PM CDT Fri Oct 24 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 634 PM CDT Fri Oct 24 2025

 - Periods of rain and thunderstorms continue through tonight.
   Locally heavy rainfall totals likely.

 - Low and conditional threat for severe storms Saturday
   afternoon and evening across far eastern OK into western AR.

 - A strong cold front is expected to move through the region
   Tuesday, with potential for strong wind gusts.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight )
Issued at 1252 PM CDT Fri Oct 24 2025

Surface analysis depicts a warm frontal boundary sitting roughly
along the Red River, with cool, cloudy and rain cooled air in
place across eastern OK. The current round of rain and storms
moving across northern OK, likely forced by waa/isentropic lift,
is likely to end this afternoon. Rain and storm coverage is
expected to increase again late this afternoon across west TX and
OK as lift from an approaching upper trough interacts with the low
level instability axis that is in place there. This activity will
spread east this evening and overnight while gradually weakening
to mainly light to moderate rain. Will keep the Flood Watch across
NE OK as is, with some threat for localized flash flooding. The
Watch will expire at 12Z Saturday morning.

Lacy

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Friday)
Issued at 1252 PM CDT Fri Oct 24 2025

By Saturday morning, a dry slot is expected to punch into OK from
the southwest and will overspread the region by afternoon,
decreasing rain coverage. The latest CAM data develops storms
during the late afternoon into the evening across far eastern OK
into western AR to the east of the upper/surface low. If there is
enough clearing in the dry slot, there may be enough instability
in a favorable low level wind shear environment to yield a
conditional severe threat. The upper system will shift east and
rain will gradually taper off on Sunday.

Focus then turns to the energetic system early next week. This
system will be on the nose of an extended cross-Pacific jet. The
12Z GFS/Canadian both buckle the jet and close off a 500mb low
nearby Tuesday into Wednesday, which would warrant the low PoPs
from the model blend in the north and east. A strong front in
association with the upper system is not expected to encounter
enough moisture/instability to force convection until it gets well
to the south and east of the forecast area. Strong wind gusts,
likely near advisory criteria, are expected by Tuesday afternoon
behind the front across eastern KS down into eastern OK. Winds may
be gusty during the day Wednesday as well. High pressure will
build into the region by Thursday, with quiet, fall weather to
close out the week.

Lacy

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 634 PM CDT Fri Oct 24 2025

Widespread showers will continue through Saturday, with the
showers possibly tapering off to drizzle during the day Saturday,
especially at KMLC. A few thunderstorms will also be possible,
especially at the eastern Oklahoma sites this evening. IFR
conditions, and possibly even LIFR at times, will be prevalent at
the eastern Oklahoma sites, with initially VFR ceilings at the
Arkansas sites lowering to IFR during the day Saturday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   56  63  56  66 / 100  80  50  20
FSM   57  65  58  69 /  80  70  70  40
MLC   57  68  56  70 /  90  80  50  30
BVO   52  62  51  64 /  90  90  60  20
FYV   52  64  52  66 /  80  80  70  50
BYV   51  60  52  61 /  80  70  70  60
MKO   56  63  56  68 /  90  80  60  30
MIO   53  61  53  64 /  90  90  60  30
F10   55  65  55  69 /  90  80  40  20
HHW   57  69  59  73 /  90  80  60  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flood Watch through Saturday morning for OKZ054>056-059>061-
     064>067-070-071.

AR...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...05

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
549 PM CDT Fri Oct 24 2025

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-251000-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
549 PM CDT Fri Oct 24 2025

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Mainly Northeast Oklahoma.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...Significant.
	AREA...Mainly Eastern Oklahoma.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

THUNDERSTORMS WITH DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.
	RISK...Significant.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

DISCUSSION...
Periods of rain and a few thunderstorms are expected to continue
through tonight. Locally heavy rainfall which may lead to some
flash flooding is possible, mainly across northeast Oklahoma.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Spotter Activation Not Expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.
SATURDAY...Thunderstorm Potential...High Wind Potential...
           Heavy Rain Potential.
SUNDAY and MONDAY...No Hazards.
TUESDAY and WEDNESDAY...High Wind Potential.
THURSDAY...No Hazards.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
There is a limited risk for severe storms Saturday afternoon and
evening across mainly far southeast Oklahoma. Marginally severe
hail is the main threat.

Strong, gusty winds are expected behind a cold front Tuesday and
Wednesday. Wind gusts may reach 40 miles an hour at times.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.