Extreme Cold Warning 1, NWS Tulsa, OK

Benton County, AR, Carroll County, AR, Madison County, AR, Washington County, AR, Adair County, OK, Cherokee County, OK, Choctaw County, OK, Craig County, OK, Creek County, OK, Delaware County, OK, Haskell County, OK, Latimer County, OK, Mayes County, OK, McIntosh County, OK, Muskogee County, OK, Nowata County, OK, Okfuskee County, OK, Okmulgee County, OK, Ottawa County, OK, Pawnee County, OK, Pittsburg County, OK, Pushmataha County, OK, Rogers County, OK, Tulsa County, OK, Wagoner County, OK, Washington County, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1055 PM CST Sun Feb 16 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 218 PM CST Sun Feb 16 2025

 - Accumulating snow likely Tuesday into Tuesday night,
   especially across northeast Oklahoma and far northwest
   Arkansas, where a medium to high chance for heavy snow (>4
   inches) exists.

 - Life-threatening cold Tuesday through Thursday. There is a
   high chance of extreme cold warnings across parts of the area
   Tuesday night through Thursday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of tonight)
Issued at 841 PM CST Sun Feb 16 2025

Sfc ridge currently extends through the forecast area with light
winds prevailing through much of the night. High clouds will
thicken somewhat but still expect good radiational influences
resulting in cold overnight lows. Update will incorporate observed
trends.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Sunday)
Issued at 218 PM CST Sun Feb 16 2025

Monday is expected to be the warmest day of the work week with
temperatures rising into the 40s to lower 50s with the aid of
southerly breeze in advance of the next storm system set to impact
the area on Tuesday. An arctic cold front is set to surge through
the area late Monday night into Tuesday setting the stage for a
significant winter weather event across eastern Oklahoma and
western Arkansas Tuesday into Tuesday night. Strong isentropic lift
is expected to develop to the north of the arctic cold front Tuesday morning
and continue into Tuesday night with the lift further enhanced by
a mid-level shortwave moving across the Plains. A heavier band of
snow is expected near the Kansas/Oklahoma border in the zone of
greatest lift within the dendritic growth zone. Moderate to Major
impacts are possible within this zone where 4 to 8 inches of snow
will be possible. This zone will likely set up to the north of highway
412 with lesser snow amounts to the south. The precipitation will likely
start as a wintry mix of rain, freezing rain, sleet and snow across
across northeast Oklahoma with a transition to all snow. The transition
will continue to take place to the south and east as we move into the
evening. Accumulations of ice will also be possible across the area with
most areas seeing less than one-tenth of an inch. The precipitation is
expected to come an end late Tuesday night. The Winter Storm Watch will
likely be upgraded to a Warning as we move into Monday with Advisories
needed for much of the remaining area.

The other big story will be the life-threatening cold Tuesday night into
Thursday as an arctic airmass builds into the region. An extreme cold
watch has been issued for Tuesday into Thursday with wind chill values
below zero across much of the area Wednesday morning and again Thursday
morning. Wind chill values could be as cold as -20 near the Kansas/Oklahoma
border. Temperatures warm up over the weekend as high pressure shifts to
the east of the area.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1055 PM CST Sun Feb 16 2025

High level clouds and variable winds will remain common for the
CWA overnight tonight. During the day Monday, scattered to broken
high clouds and winds becoming southeast to south are forecast.
Late afternoon into the evening hours, model soundings indicate
scattered mid level clouds developing over much of the CWA with a
frontal boundary moving into Northeast Oklahoma. Winds with this
boundary look to become more northeast, while easterly winds
return for the rest of the CWA. Any precipitation across Northeast
Oklahoma is forecast to develop just outside of this TAF period.
VFR conditions should persist through the TAF period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   20  46  25  26 /   0   0  30 100
FSM   24  50  32  35 /   0   0   0  90
MLC   23  51  35  37 /   0   0  10 100
BVO   15  44  17  21 /   0   0  30 100
FYV   18  46  28  33 /   0   0  10  90
BYV   17  44  24  26 /   0   0  10  90
MKO   20  48  32  33 /   0   0  10 100
MIO   16  44  22  23 /   0   0  30 100
F10   21  49  32  33 /   0   0  20 100
HHW   25  50  37  39 /   0   0   0 100

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Winter Storm Watch from Tuesday morning through late Tuesday
     night for OKZ054>064-067>069.

     Extreme Cold Watch from Tuesday evening through Thursday morning
     for OKZ049-053>076.

AR...Winter Storm Watch from Tuesday morning through late Tuesday
     night for ARZ001-002-010-011.

     Extreme Cold Watch from Tuesday evening through Thursday morning
     for ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029.

&&

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...20

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
525 PM CST Sun Feb 16 2025

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-171115-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
525 PM CST Sun Feb 16 2025

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Spotter Activation Not Expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.
MONDAY...Winter Weather and Dangerous Wind Chill Potential.
TUESDAY...Winter Weather...High Wind and...Dangerous Wind Chill Potential.
WEDNESDAY...High Wind and Dangerous Wind Chill Potential.
THURSDAY and FRIDAY...Dangerous Wind Chill Potential.
SATURDAY...No Hazards.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
A dangerous winter storm remains on track to impact eastern
Oklahoma and northwest and west central Arkansas beginning Tuesday
morning. From early Tuesday into early Wednesday, heavy snow is
expected across parts of northeast Oklahoma and far northwest
Arkansas. There is a medium to high chance for greater than 4
inches of snow in some places, especially along and north of
Highway 412. In addition, gusty winds will result in areas of
blowing snow, leading to significant visibility reductions,
and drifting snow. Farther south, a mixture of freezing
rain, sleet, and snow, will lead to minor impacts to travel.

Dangerous cold is also expected from Tuesday through Friday
morning, with a prolonged period of wind chill values well below
zero in many locations.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PLANNING STATEMENT...
Emergency management and first responders should ready plans to
respond to not only potential for heavy snow impacts, but also
potential for life-threatening cold in the Tuesday to early Friday
time frame. Provision of shelters will likely be needed from the
cold.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.