Special Weather Statement, NWS Topeka, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
646 PM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A prolonged period of hot weather is expected into next
  weekend and beyond.

- Showers and storms could move into parts of northern KS
  overnight tonight and Sunday night.

- There is low confidence in severe storms, but a marginal risk
  for severe wind gusts remains.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 215 PM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025

19Z water vapor imagery showed upper ridging over the southeast
nosing into the southern plains while the westerlies remained
across the northern plains. Surface obs showed an area of
relative low pressure over the CO high plains with an inverted
trough extending through southeast NEB and into southern IA.

The prolong period of heat remains the main concern with the
forecast and there is not much from the 12Z models showing a cooler
solution. So will continue without any changes to the current
headlines. The Extreme Heat Warnings is out because of the duration
of the heat more so than the magnitude of the heat, with heat
indices forecast to be around 105 each afternoon. The upper ridge is
progged to amplify beginning Monday with some of the hotter temps
expected through midweek. However the 12Z ECMWF is suggesting some
mid level energy may knock down the upper ridge with chances for
precip Thursday and Friday. This is why an extension has not been
made to the headlines. Unfortunately the ensemble consensus and
operational solutions strengthen the upper ridge over KS by next
weekend. The 00Z ensembles are even showing an outside chance (less
than 5%) that highs could reach between 110 and 115. So it doesn't
look like the heat is going anywhere soon.

In the short term, there is a chance (20-40%) for showers and storms
to move from NEB into northern KS. Shortwave energy within the
westerlies is forecast to spark convection over western NEB this
evening. But CAMs show an overall weakening trend as storms move
towards northeast KS during the early morning hours. There remains a
marginal risk for some wind gusts, but there is not much confidence
in severe weather with increasing inhibition overnight likely to
make storms ever more elevated. There looks to be another
opportunity for nocturnal convection to move into parts of northeast
KS from the north Sunday night in a similar setup to tonight. Warm
700MB temps between 12-14C are expected to inhibit daytime
development over the forecast area.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 645 PM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025

VFR is forecast to prevail. Will need to monitor this evening's
convection in southern NE and western KS and see how it evolves
overnight as it approaches the area. The vast majority of
guidance keeps this activity north of terminals, while the HRRR
suggests it may briefly clip terminals overnight. Have opted to
keep mention out of TAFs for now. Additionally, a LLJ looks to
strengthen to around 40 kts this evening, but as long as there
is some BL mixing and sfc winds remain up, this should mitigate
concerns for LLWS. Gusts have increased a bit in the last hour
or so, but anticipate those should diminish with sunset.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Extreme Heat Watch from Monday afternoon through Wednesday
evening for KSZ008-KSZ009-KSZ010-KSZ011-KSZ012-KSZ020-KSZ024.
Extreme Heat Warning until 7 PM CDT Wednesday for KSZ021-
KSZ022-KSZ023-KSZ026-KSZ034-KSZ035-KSZ036-KSZ037-KSZ038-KSZ039-
KSZ040-KSZ054-KSZ055-KSZ056-KSZ058-KSZ059.

&&

DISCUSSION...Wolters
AVIATION...Picha

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Topeka KS
323 PM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-202030-
Republic-Washington-Marshall-Nemaha-Brown-Cloud-Clay-Riley-
Pottawatomie-Jackson-Jefferson-Ottawa-Dickinson-Geary-Morris-
Wabaunsee-Shawnee-Douglas-Lyon-Osage-Franklin-Coffey-Anderson-
323 PM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central Kansas,
east central Kansas, north central Kansas, and northeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

There is a 20 to 40 percent chance thunderstorms move into parts
of northern Kansas overnight tonight. An isolated damaging wind
gust can not be ruled out with the storms.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

Hot weather with heat indices around 105 each afternoon is
forecast to persist into next weekend. The duration of the heat
has led to an Extreme Heat Warning for areas along and south of a
line from Oskaloosa to Clay Center. An Extreme Heat Watch is
posted for areas north of this line beginning Monday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters should not be needed this afternoon or tonight.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1100 PM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025

KSZ008-009-020-021-200430-
Republic-Clay-Cloud-Washington-
1100 PM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT REPUBLIC...WESTERN WASHINGTON...
NORTHWESTERN CLAY AND NORTHERN CLOUD COUNTIES THROUGH 1130 PM CDT...

At 1100 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a cluster of strong
thunderstorms over Munden, moving east at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Strong wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph.

SOURCE...ASOS and personal weather stations indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Concordia, Belleville, Clyde, Clifton, Scandia, Jamestown, Courtland,
Cuba, Norway, Republic, Haddam, Munden, Narka, Mahaska, Agenda, and
Vining.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4000 9719 3952 9722 3951 9792 4000 9791
TIME...MOT...LOC 0400Z 265DEG 40KT 3993 9753

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

Prieto

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1121 PM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025

KSZ009-010-200445-
Washington-Marshall-
1121 PM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT WASHINGTON AND NORTHWESTERN
MARSHALL COUNTIES THROUGH 1145 PM CDT...

At 1121 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a cluster of strong
thunderstorms 4 miles southwest of Hollenberg, moving east at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Strong wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Marysville, Washington, Hanover, Linn, Greenleaf, Barnes,
Morrowville, Haddam, Mahaska, Hollenberg, and Bremen.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4000 9666 3973 9663 3965 9736 4000 9737
TIME...MOT...LOC 0421Z 252DEG 20KT 3995 9706

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

Gargan