Severe Thunderstorm Warning 55, NWS Topeka, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
230 PM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

-Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms continue this
 afternoon. Storms could produce quarter sized hail, strong
 winds and localized flash flooding.

-On and off chances for storms remain in the forecast until a cold
 front moves through early Friday.

-A brief break in precipitation chances will start the weekend
 before rain returns to the forecast.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 227 PM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025

Remnants of yesterday's surface boundary in northern KS, combined
with a subtle mid-level wave and some isentropic ascent led to the
development of scattered convection in the area by midday today.
Instability has been increasing this afternoon as temperatures
warm and boundary layer moisture increases. Shear has been very
weak, so storms have had a tendency to develop quickly, then
remain fairly stationary as they produce heavy rain and some
hail. Various outflow boundaries will now also act as areas of
lift as shear and instability continue to increase. Thus,
scattered storms will remain in the forecast into this evening.
Large hail, damaging wind gusts and localized flash flooding
will be possible with the strongest storms.

Have POPs continuing into the overnight period, with the higher
probabilities across northern sections of KS as another weak shortwave
and associated vort max ride through the southwest flow aloft. There
could be a break in precipitation Thursday morning and midday before
a more obvious mid-level wave and a surface cold front move across
the area late in the day. With that, another round of scattered
convection is expected to develop. If after dark, instability will
be a bit more limited and the severe risk will not be as high.
Flooding might be one of the more concerning hazards, especially if
rain falls in areas that are already saturated from recent rainfall.

Surface high pressure will start to work into the area behind
Thursday night's cold front, and a upper ridge will build aloft on
Friday. So a brief dry stretch of weather is expected Friday
afternoon through much of the day Saturday. Temperatures will
top out in the 60s during that timeframe with the cooler air
mass in place. Have POPs increasing again on Sunday as a WAA
pattern sets up ahead of an approaching longwave trough axis
west of the region. The threat for severe weather could increase
once again when that trough nears KS on Monday, depending on
the timing of the surface front and associated instability axis.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025

Scattered storms are developing at midday around the area. Given
the scattered nature, confidence is not high in whether storms
will directly impact airports and the timing. Thus, have kept a
mention of PROB30 for a few hours this afternoon and early this
evening. Will monitor radar and amend if necessary. Chances
decrease later this evening but will increase again toward the
end of the 18Z TAF period.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

DISCUSSION...Teefey
AVIATION...Teefey

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Topeka KS
232 PM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-241945-
Republic-Washington-Marshall-Nemaha-Brown-Cloud-Clay-Riley-
Pottawatomie-Jackson-Jefferson-Ottawa-Dickinson-Geary-Morris-
Wabaunsee-Shawnee-Douglas-Lyon-Osage-Franklin-Coffey-Anderson-
232 PM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Kansas, east central
Kansas, north central Kansas and northeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms remain possible into this
evening. Large hail, damaging wind gusts and localized flash flooding
could occur.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

There is a low chance for severe thunderstorms Thursday afternoon
and evening. Localized areas of heavy rain capable of causing
flooding are possible by Thursday night.

.SPOTTER MESSAGE

Weather spotters are encouraged to relay reports of hail, damaging
wind, tornadoes and flooding.

&&

More detailed information can be found at:
www.weather.gov/media/top/DssPacket.pdf

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1153 AM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1039 AM     Rain             1 SSE Wilsey            38.63N 96.67W
04/23/2025  M2.10 Inch       Morris             KS   CO-OP Observer

            24 hour rainfall total.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1230 PM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025

KSZ009-010-021>023-231800-
Clay-Pottawatomie-Riley-Washington-Marshall-
1230 PM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN RILEY...NORTHWESTERN
POTTAWATOMIE...SOUTHEASTERN WASHINGTON...NORTHEASTERN CLAY AND
SOUTHWESTERN MARSHALL COUNTIES THROUGH 100 PM CDT...

At 1230 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a cluster of strong
thunderstorms 9 miles northwest of Randolph, moving northeast at 20
mph.

HAZARD...Nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to outdoor objects and vegetation is possible.

Locations impacted include...
Blue Rapids, Waterville, Randolph, and Green.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3937 9697 3950 9708 3973 9669 3949 9646
TIME...MOT...LOC 1730Z 235DEG 18KT 3953 9688

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...<30 MPH

Prieto

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
121 PM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025

KSZ009-021-022-231845-
Clay-Riley-Washington-
121 PM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN RILEY...
SOUTHEASTERN WASHINGTON AND NORTHEASTERN CLAY COUNTIES THROUGH 145 PM
CDT...

At 121 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 4
miles northeast of Green, moving northeast at 5 mph.

HAZARD...Nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to outdoor objects and vegetation is possible.

Locations impacted include...
Green.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3961 9681 3957 9680 3957 9672 3936 9687
      3943 9709 3967 9704
TIME...MOT...LOC 1821Z 214DEG 6KT 3948 9694

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...<30 MPH

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Topeka KS
150 PM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0138 PM     Hail             8 S Waterville          39.57N 96.76W
04/23/2025  M0.75 Inch       Marshall           KS   Public

            Report from mPING: Dime (0.75 in.).

&&

JP

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Topeka KS
157 PM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0153 PM     Hail             5 WSW Blaine            39.46N 96.50W
04/23/2025  E0.88 Inch       Pottawatomie       KS   Public

            estimated rainfall 1.5 inches and still
            raining.

&&

JP

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