Severe Thunderstorm Warning 16, NWS Topeka, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
641 PM CDT Tue Apr 1 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Thunderstorms are expected to develop this evening and overnight,
with the potential for severe weather. Large hail, damaging winds,
and tornadoes are all possible with these storms.

- Gusty south winds with some occasional 45mph gusts remain possible
into late this evening.

- Temperatures trend cooler and below average late this week into
  early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 252 PM CDT Tue Apr 1 2025

A 988mb surface low pressure system has developed along the KS/CO
border in response to a lead perturbation ejecting out of the
broader upper troughing pattern encompassing the western CONUS.
Moisture has been slowly advecting northward with 50+ dew points
having made it into south central KS and 60+ dew points still along
and south of the Red River Valley as of 19Z. Moisture transport
should happen more quickly later this afternoon and especially into
the early evening as the LLJ starts to pick up.

As we head into the evening and overnight hours, there are two areas
of convective initiation and evolution that we'll need to monitor.
The first is with more isolated supercells that may develop along a
sharpening dryline in south central KS and move northeastward into
east central KS, and the second is with storms developing in north
central KS as the cold front eventually catches up to the dryline.
The HRRR has consistently been the most aggressive solution, and the
18Z run has even started to develop some initial supercells in north
central KS before they congeal into a line later tonight. Starting
with the isolated cells further south, there remains lower
confidence in these storms having much of an impact on east central
KS. This is due to the fact that they would be moving into a less
favorable environment for surface-based storms as they move further
north and east into the open warm sector. Even so, plentiful shear
exists in the environment to keep any storm going that develops.
While coverage of storms would be isolated with anything that comes
from south central KS or northern OK, if a storm can maintain itself
as it moves into our area, this would pose the greatest risk for a
strong tornado, as well as large hail and damaging wind. Timing for
this aspect of the severe weather threat could be as early as 7pm,
but probably mostly in the 8-11pm time frame.

The most probable impact we are monitoring is associated with the
second area described above. Again, the HRRR has recently become the
most robust in developing some discrete cells initially around 00-
01Z as the cold front catches up to the dryline. As we get closer to
03-04Z, storms should grow upscale into a line and move east through
the overnight hours, likely not reaching far eastern areas until
after 4am. Wind damage would likely be the main threat with these
late night storms, but cannot rule out a brief tornado spinning up
along the leading edge of the line as it develops into a QLCS. This
is especially the case earlier on in the event towards north central
KS, whereas further east the line should weaken with time. Storms
should exit the area around sunrise.

The broad upper troughing pattern remains in place through the end
of the week, and some perturbations within that pattern keep some
additional rain chances particularly on Friday into Saturday. A cold
front Saturday into Sunday looks to usher in a much cooler air mass
late this week into early next week. Morning lows could dip near or
below freezing Sunday and Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 636 PM CDT Tue Apr 1 2025

Multiple aviation hazards will be present during the 00Z TAF
period as a strong system impacts the area. A LLJ will increase
to 50-55 kts this evening, which could create LLWS when gusts
are not occurring at the surface. Thunderstorms then become
likely, especially after midnight, moving from west to east.
There could be some lingering showers behind the main line of
storms tonight, but rain should exit the area by around sunrise
Wednesday. West winds will then become gusty Wednesday
afternoon.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 1 AM CDT Wednesday for KSZ008-KSZ009-
KSZ010-KSZ020-KSZ021-KSZ022-KSZ023-KSZ034-KSZ035-KSZ036-KSZ037-
KSZ038-KSZ054.

&&

DISCUSSION...Picha
AVIATION...Teefey

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