Severe Thunderstorm Warning 13, NWS Topeka, KS

489 
WWUS53 KTOP 300127
SVSTOP

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
827 PM CDT Sat Mar 29 2025

KSC003-031-059-300145-
/O.CON.KTOP.SV.W.0013.000000T0000Z-250330T0145Z/
Franklin-Anderson-Coffey-
827 PM CDT Sat Mar 29 2025

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 845 PM CDT
FOR SOUTHWESTERN FRANKLIN...NORTHWESTERN ANDERSON AND EAST CENTRAL
COFFEY COUNTIES...

At 827 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 7 miles west of
Harris, moving northeast at 45 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Harris.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3822 9555 3831 9564 3850 9537 3833 9524
TIME...MOT...LOC 0127Z 229DEG 38KT 3829 9557 

HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

Jones

917 
WWUS53 KTOP 300133
SVSTOP

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
833 PM CDT Sat Mar 29 2025

KSC003-031-059-300142-
/O.CAN.KTOP.SV.W.0013.000000T0000Z-250330T0145Z/
Franklin-Anderson-Coffey-
833 PM CDT Sat Mar 29 2025

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHWESTERN FRANKLIN...
NORTHWESTERN ANDERSON AND EAST CENTRAL COFFEY COUNTIES IS
CANCELLED...

The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer poses an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

&&

LAT...LON 3822 9555 3831 9564 3850 9537 3833 9524
TIME...MOT...LOC 0132Z 230DEG 38KT 3833 9551 

$$

Jones

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
618 PM CDT Sat Mar 29 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There remains a slight risk for severe thunderstorms this
  evening across portions of east central KS, with large hail
  and damaging winds being the main hazards.

- Cooler air moves in for Sunday and Monday before warming back
  up Tuesday.

- Another system brings in more thunderstorm chances Tuesday
  night into early Wednesday, including potential for severe
  weather.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 250 PM CDT Sat Mar 29 2025

Water vapor imagery shows a longwave troughing pattern over the
western half of the CONUS with a couple of shortwaves of note within
the pattern. The first is lifting northeast through NE and the other
is moving through NM as of 19Z. Sfc low pressure has set up in
central KS with a cold front closing in on our north central KS
counties. How all of these features interact will determine how much
of the area and for how long conditions will line up just right for
severe weather to develop this evening. Overall, it appears to be a
narrow window of opportunity, which may keep the risk more limited
in coverage.

The first shortwave mentioned will continue to lift northeastward
and away from the area, although the 700mb low associated with it is
progged to remain over Nebraska through this afternoon and evening.
The second shortwave looks to reach the TX panhandle by 00Z, keeping
upper-level support displaced from the area around the time the sfc
cold front moves across the area. There is an outside chance for a
few isolated storms to develop in north central KS around 23Z,
although convergence along the boundary is weaker in that area
compared to when it gets further south and east a couple hours
later. Forecast soundings show the cap eroding by 22-23Z with SBCAPE
ranging 1000-2000 J/kg (highest in east central KS) along with 30-35
kts of effective bulk shear. This would support supercells with any
isolated activity if it develops in north central KS, and would
continue to support severe weather with large hail and damaging
winds as the main threats as the front moves into east central KS
this evening. Overall, forcing with convergence along the front
looks best from north central OK through southeast and east central
KS. Areas near the Hwy 75 corridor could see storms develop between
7-8pm and develop into a more organized line, with the severe risk
lasting through about 10-11pm for east central KS. Models are
generally in agreement with bringing the front through the area by
03-04Z, which would put an end to the severe weather threat. That
said, the cluster of storms that develops in northern OK (closer to
the second shortwave) is progged to move northeastward through
southeast and east central KS overnight. This could bring additional
thunderstorms overnight with perhaps some gusty winds, though these
would be elevated.

The bulk of rain should be east of the area by daybreak Sunday. Some
scattered showers may linger in the morning with another subtle
shortwave, followed by dry conditions into the afternoon as the
system moves east. CAA will result in relatively cooler conditions
with highs in the 50s followed by lows in the 30s by Monday morning.
Monday looks quiet with sfc high pressure overhead and highs in the
50s once again.

A more potent upper trough looks to deepen across the western CONUS
Tuesday. This will result in a surge of WAA bringing temperatures
back to the 60s and 70s for the afternoon. Additionally, this brings
another low pressure system across the region with a chance for
storms. Instability and shear parameters would support the
possibility of severe weather with these storms as well, so this
will be the next system to monitor. The upper low moves off into MN
by Wednesday, leaving dry conditions in our area for the day. A
broad troughing pattern aloft leaves us in southwest flow with the
baroclinic zone hanging around the region for the second half of the
work week, keeping low chances for thunderstorms Thursday and
Friday. Temperatures remain near or slightly above average during
that time frame.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 614 PM CDT Sat Mar 29 2025

VFR becoming MVFR in a few hours as a cold front passes and low
stratus builds in. As the cold front pushes by the Topeka
terminals, some thunderstorms may develop and impact the
terminals. Confidence is low that this will happen, but there is
at least enough of a threat that a prob30 was warranted. A
batch of showers and isolated thunderstorms may move in from the
south later tonight and bring rain into KTOP/KFOE. It is
possible that this activity will be far enough west to impact
KHMK, but confidence wasn't high enough at this time to put any
precipitation in the TAF for KHMK. Low stratus will likely hang
on through most of the day tomorrow with a cool northerly wind.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

DISCUSSION...Picha
AVIATION...Jones

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Topeka KS
253 PM CDT Sat Mar 29 2025

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-302000-
Republic-Washington-Marshall-Nemaha-Brown-Cloud-Clay-Riley-
Pottawatomie-Jackson-Jefferson-Ottawa-Dickinson-Geary-Morris-
Wabaunsee-Shawnee-Douglas-Lyon-Osage-Franklin-Coffey-Anderson-
253 PM CDT Sat Mar 29 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Kansas, east central
Kansas, north central Kansas and northeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Strong to severe storms are possible late this afternoon into this
evening, with highest chances across east central Kansas. Large hail
and damaging wind gusts will be the main hazards with these storms.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

There is a another chance of thunderstorms Tuesday night into early
Wednesday, some of which could be severe.

&&

More detailed information can be found at:
www.weather.gov/media/top/DssPacket.pdf