Special Weather Statement, NWS Great Falls, MT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
323 PM MDT Sat Aug 16 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected across the CWA
  through Monday.

- The main impact from any thunderstorm will be gusty winds,
  lightning and brief heavy rainfall.

- Above normal afternoon temperatures expected through Wednesday,
  before cooler air arrives on Thursday.

- Smoke from area wildfires will impact visibility and air quality
  at times.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

 - Meteorological Overview:
Even though an upper level ridge will reside over the Northern
Rockies for the next few days, several upper level disturbances
will move from southwest to northeast through the CWA from now
through Monday afternoon. This will result in scattered
afternoon/evening showers/thunderstorms across the CWA. At this
time, the strength of the daily thunderstorm activity varies from
model run to model run, as some models prog some isolated strong
storms, while other models prog just a few light showers.
Additionally, expect afternoon temperatures to be above normal
most days through Wednesday, with Tue/Wed looking to be the
warmest days.

On Wednesday, an upper level trof will approach the northern Rocky
Mountain Front by late in the day, resulting in increased winds
over North Central MT. A few showers/thunderstorms will accompany
the trof, but the main impact will be for some cooler afternoon
temperatures starting on Thursday and continuing into next
weekend.

With several wildfires in and just to our West, lower air quality
and reduced visibility will affect portions of the CWA at times.

 - Forecast Confidence & Scenarios:
With very warm afternoon temperatures, combined with low humidity,
gusty winds will be possible with any passing thunderstorm.
Additionally, precipitable water is expected to increase between
today and Sunday, resulting in a few slow moving thunderstorms
producing some heavy rainfall. Again, since the forecast models
are varying in the strength and location of some of the strong
storms, confidence is low for precipitation amounts at this time.
That being said, precipitable water is over an inch, thus some
areas could receive near/more than an inch of rainfall in a short
time.

&&

.AVIATION...
16/18Z TAF Period

Local and regional smoke from wildfires will upscale during the
afternoon and will continue to cause slantwise reductions in
visibility across KBZN, KEKS, and KHLN. There is a little
uncertainty in how much it will affect surface visibility due to
scattered showers and thunderstorms developing this afternoon
can help clear out the smoke a bit. There are currently a few
isolated showers across Southwest MT, but coverage increases this
afternooon across the Southwest. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms will travel north to the North-Central MT plains in
the evening, becoming more isolated the further north it travels.
The main hazard with storms will be gusty winds. There is a low
chance for lingering isolated showers overnight tonight, but it's
uncertain whether or not they will impact terminals. -Wilson

Refer to weather.gov/zlc for more detailed regional aviation
weather and hazard information.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Elevated fire weather conditions are expected to continue through
the weekend.

Passing showers/thunderstorm could produce strong erratic wind
gusts. Additionally, afternoon temperatures in 80s and lower 90s,
breezy west winds, combined with lower afternoon humidity, will
result in elevated fire concerns from time to time. Brusda

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  58  85  56  89 /  40  30  20  20
CTB  53  80  51  84 /  10   0  10  10
HLN  57  82  55  89 /  40  50  20  10
BZN  52  86  51  90 /  30  50  30  10
WYS  42  79  41  82 /  40  40  40  10
DLN  49  82  48  86 /  20  60  20  10
HVR  60  85  57  89 /  30  10  10  20
LWT  55  81  54  85 /  40  30  40  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>