Alert archive / Montana / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2025

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 16, NWS Great Falls, MT

May 11, 20254 counties in Montana

NWS Great Falls, MT issued this severe thunderstorm warning at May 11, 2025, 4:27 PM MDT for 4 counties in Montana. It was in force for 93 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued: May 11, 2025, 4:27 PM MDT (22:27 UTC)
Expired: May 11, 2025, 6:00 PM MDT
In force: 93 min
Issued by: NWS Great Falls, MT
Area: Storm-based polygon
Hail: 0.75 in
Wind: 60.0 mph

Counties Blaine County, MT, Chouteau County, MT, Fergus County, MT, Hill County, MT

The radar

The Great Falls radar (KTFX), 143 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 22:28 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Great Falls, MT wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at May 11, 2:47 PM MDT, 1 hour 40 minutes earlier. Its key messages:

Scattered showers and thunderstorms move across the area through this evening with a few storms producing strong wind gusts and small hail.
Outside of thunderstorm activity, gusty southwest winds continue into this evening across southwest Montana while breezy west winds develop across most of north-central and southwest Montana on Monday.
Temperatures trend cooler than seasonal averages with showery periods through much of the week ahead with the best chance for widespread rain and higher elevation snow across southwest Montana Tuesday and Wednesday.

Area forecast discussion, May 11, 2:47 PM MDT, 1 hour 40 minutes before

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
247 PM MDT Sun May 11 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

  - Scattered showers and thunderstorms move across the area
    through this evening with a few storms producing strong wind
    gusts and small hail.

 - Outside of thunderstorm activity, gusty southwest winds
   continue into this evening across southwest Montana while
   breezy west winds develop across most of north-central and
   southwest Montana on Monday.

 - Temperatures trend cooler than seasonal averages with showery
   periods through much of the week ahead with the best chance for
   widespread rain and higher elevation snow across southwest
   Montana Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A deep upper level trough continues to slowly move onshore tonight
through tomorrow with an embedded shortwave and upper level jet max
lifting out of the base of the trough across the Northern Rockies
tonight. Thunderstorm activity that developed along and west of
the continental divide earl this afternoon is expected to increase
intensity and coverage as the previously mentioned mid to upper
energy approaches. Initial convective development supports the
hi=res models depiction of the highest risk for storms producing
strong winds and potentially some small hail across north-central
MT as well Gallatin county from storm moving out of Idaho this
evening.

Cooler temperatures develop Monday through Tuesday as the upper
level trough continues inland with periods of showers likely as
additional disturbances rotate through the trough. There are some
differences still among model ensemble members with the track of
a mid level low center within the trough that moves through the
region during the Tuesday night/Wednesday period. Models have
trended a bit further south with this feature favoring southern
portions of the forecast area for the most widespread
precipitation. Probabilities for 1.00" or greater precipitation
amounts have decreased across most of the area with probabilities
of 0.50" or greater amounts ranging from around 10% near the
Canadian border to 30-40% across central MT and 50-70% across
portions of southwest MT. An overall unsettled and cooler than
average period of weather continues through the rest of the week
with broad troughing remaining across the region. Addition rounds
of precipitation area likely though confidence in the timing and
location of disturbances within the trough later this week
remains low. Hoenisch

&&

.AVIATION...
11/18Z TAF Period

The main concern for the TAF period will be thunderstorms this
afternoon/evening all all terminals. The main hazards with storms
will be gusty winds. Best chances for the development of strong
to severe storms will be at KGTF, KHVR, and KLWT where a few
storms will be capable of producing strong wind gusts, brief heavy
downpours, and hail(lower end chance). Outside of storms, there
will be breezy, southwest prevailing winds in Southwest MT this
afternoon. -Wilson

Refer to weather.gov/zlc for more detailed regional aviation
weather and hazard information.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  50  72  45  60 /  20  10  40  50
CTB  46  63  40  55 /  60  10  20  70
HLN  50  73  44  61 /  30  30  60  70
BZN  46  73  40  56 /  30  10  70  90
WYS  38  66  33  54 /  60  10  50  80
DLN  45  68  38  53 /  20  10  80  80
HVR  49  76  45  64 /  50  10  40  30
LWT  50  74  41  57 /  30  10  60  40

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls

In the hours before

Local storm report, May 11, 3:16 PM MDT, 1 hour 11 minutes before

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Local storm report, May 11, 3:26 PM MDT, 1 hour 1 minute before

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Local storm report, May 11, 3:29 PM MDT, 58 minutes before

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Special weather statement, May 11, 3:32 PM MDT, 55 minutes before

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Special weather statement, May 11, 3:47 PM MDT, 40 minutes before

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Special weather statement, May 11, 4:15 PM MDT, 12 minutes before

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The office that day

Everything else NWS Great Falls, MT issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
May 10, 6:04 PM MDT	Special Weather Statement	TFX	Wheatland	56 min
May 10, 6:13 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TFX	Blaine, Fergus	62 min
May 10, 6:26 PM MDT	Special Weather Statement	TFX	Hill	34 min
May 10, 6:31 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TFX	Fergus, Judith Basin	59 min
May 10, 6:34 PM MDT	Special Weather Statement	TFX	Cascade, Lewis and Clark	56 min
May 10, 6:41 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TFX	Blaine	27 min
May 10, 6:53 PM MDT	Special Weather Statement	TFX	Fergus	37 min
May 10, 7:05 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TFX	Cascade, Chouteau	55 min
May 10, 7:06 PM MDT	Special Weather Statement	TFX	Hill	24 min
May 10, 7:21 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TFX	Fergus	24 min
May 10, 7:42 PM MDT	Special Weather Statement	TFX	Fergus	63 min
May 10, 7:42 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TFX	Blaine, Hill	37 min
May 10, 8:46 PM MDT	Special Weather Statement	TFX	Meagher	44 min
May 10, 11:10 PM MDT	Special Weather Statement	TFX	Fergus	50 min
May 11, 2:13 AM MDT	Special Weather Statement	TFX	Gallatin	47 min
May 11, 12:58 PM MDT	Special Weather Statement	TFX		32 min
May 11, 1:41 PM MDT	Special Weather Statement	TFX	Lewis and Clark	34 min
May 11, 2:13 PM MDT	Special Weather Statement	TFX	Cascade	32 min
May 11, 2:44 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TFX	Cascade, Chouteau, Pondera, Teton	46 min
May 11, 2:51 PM MDT	Special Weather Statement	TFX		39 min
May 11, 3:01 PM MDT	Special Weather Statement	TFX	Jefferson	44 min
May 11, 3:27 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TFX	Cascade, Chouteau, Fergus, Hill, Judith Basin, Teton	63 min
May 11, 3:32 PM MDT	Special Weather Statement	TFX	Cascade	43 min
May 11, 3:47 PM MDT	Special Weather Statement	TFX	Broadwater	43 min
May 11, 4:15 PM MDT	Special Weather Statement	TFX	Judith Basin	45 min
May 11, 4:29 PM MDT	Special Weather Statement	TFX	Broadwater	46 min
May 11, 5:31 PM MDT	Special Weather Statement	TFX	Judith Basin	59 min
May 11, 5:56 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TFX	Blaine, Chouteau, Fergus, Hill	58 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Montana, 2025 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2025

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.