Severe Thunderstorm Warning 113, NWS Great Falls, MT

619 
WWUS55 KTFX 282252
SVSTFX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
452 PM MDT Mon Jul 28 2025

MTC013-045-282330-
/O.CON.KTFX.SV.W.0113.000000T0000Z-250728T2330Z/
Judith Basin MT-Cascade MT-
452 PM MDT Mon Jul 28 2025

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 530 PM MDT
FOR NORTHWESTERN JUDITH BASIN AND EAST CENTRAL CASCADE COUNTIES...

At 452 PM MDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 15 miles southwest
of Geyser, or 24 miles west of Stanford, moving east at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Ping pong ball size hail and 60 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...People and animals outdoors will be injured. Expect hail 
         damage to roofs, siding, windows, and vehicles. Expect wind 
         damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Stanford, Geyser, Raynesford, Windham, and Monarch.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

Torrential rainfall is occurring with this storm, and may lead to
flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4703 11092 4733 11094 4735 11012 4727 11013
      4727 11008 4687 11012
TIME...MOT...LOC 2252Z 269DEG 23KT 4713 11075 

HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.50 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

Glinskas

892 
WWUS55 KTFX 282304
SVSTFX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
504 PM MDT Mon Jul 28 2025

MTC013-282313-
/O.CAN.KTFX.SV.W.0113.000000T0000Z-250728T2330Z/
Cascade MT-
504 PM MDT Mon Jul 28 2025

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EAST CENTRAL CASCADE COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

The severe thunderstorm which prompted the warning has moved out of 
the warned area. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 900 PM MDT for
central Montana.

&&

LAT...LON 4701 11011 4705 11065 4709 11065 4709 11074
      4731 11078 4734 11076 4735 11036 4734 11012
      4727 11013 4726 11008
TIME...MOT...LOC 2303Z 274DEG 33KT 4712 11060 

$$

MTC045-282330-
/O.CON.KTFX.SV.W.0113.000000T0000Z-250728T2330Z/
Judith Basin MT-
504 PM MDT Mon Jul 28 2025

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 530 PM MDT
FOR NORTHWESTERN JUDITH BASIN COUNTY...

At 503 PM MDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 11 miles southwest
of Geyser, or 17 miles west of Stanford, moving east at 40 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Stanford, Geyser, Raynesford, and Windham.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

Torrential rainfall is occurring with this storm, and may lead to
flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4701 11011 4705 11065 4709 11065 4709 11074
      4731 11078 4734 11076 4735 11036 4734 11012
      4727 11013 4726 11008
TIME...MOT...LOC 2303Z 274DEG 33KT 4712 11060 

HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

Glinskas

689 
WWUS55 KTFX 282320
SVSTFX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
520 PM MDT Mon Jul 28 2025

MTC045-282330-
/O.EXP.KTFX.SV.W.0113.000000T0000Z-250728T2330Z/
Judith Basin MT-
520 PM MDT Mon Jul 28 2025

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHWESTERN JUDITH BASIN
COUNTY WILL EXPIRE AT 530 PM MDT...

The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer poses an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore, the warning will be allowed to expire.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 900 PM MDT for
central Montana.

&&

LAT...LON 4701 11011 4705 11065 4709 11065 4709 11074
      4731 11078 4734 11076 4735 11036 4734 11012
      4727 11013 4726 11008
TIME...MOT...LOC 2320Z 274DEG 33KT 4711 11039 

$$

Glinskas

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
218 PM MDT Mon Jul 28 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

 - Increased risk for strong to severe thunderstorms this afternoon
   and evening across Central Montana and vicinity.

 - Daily opportunities for afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms
   will be around through the remainder of the week and weekend.

 - Slower moving thunderstorms later in the week will be capable
   of producing heavy rain, increasing the risk for localized
   flash flooding.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

 - Meteorological Overview:

A persistent southwesterly flow aloft will continue across the
Northern Rockies through the end of the week and into the weekend.
Meanwhile at the surface, easterly winds will continue to usher in
increasing moisture, especially over the plains. The threat this
week will slowly transition from severe weather to excessive
rainfall due to slow moving and potent precipitation producing
thunderstorms.

As for today: Subtle H5 speed max will continue its approach to the
region. 18Z RAOB at TFX demonstrates around 30 kts effective shear,
which should increase further as the subtle speed max arrives later
this afternoon. This increased shear, combined with observed
instability in excess of 1,000 m2/s2 should foster an increased risk
of severe thunderstorms, including supercells through the remainder
of the day across portions of Central MT and vicinity. The initial
concern is for large hail given the straight hodographs and lower
observed DCAPE, but a threat for wind should develop in far eastern
areas (Fergus county and vicinity) as storms begin to interact and
congeal later this afternoon and early evening. There appears at
least a low-end threat for another round of showers and
thunderstorms late tonight across portions of the Hi-Line, though
this is low-confidence at this time.

Looking ahead to Tuesday: Better moisture begins to work into
Southwest Montana. As such, better instability in these areas
develops tomorrow afternoon. Shear does look to decrease Tuesday,
but looks to stay just high enough to support a risk of strong to
severe wind gusts from decaying thunderstorms. Given the forecast
instability in excess of 1,500 m2/s2, brief instances of large hail
cannot be rule out either, even if shear is lower. Overall storm
motions appear to slow down Tuesday, which raises concerns for
excessive rainfall. Given there is only a marginal risk for
excessive rainfall across much of the forecast area, we are electing
to hold off from a Flood Watch at this time.

Wednesday onward: Although southwesterly flow aloft continues later
in the week, the magnitude weakens considerably. Given ample
moisture that is forecast to remain in place, and sufficient
instability, the slower storm motions that develop as a result of
the weakened flow will raise concerns for excessive rainfall
resulting in flash flooding. Areas most prone to flash flooding
include burn scars and urban areas. Given there is lower confidence
in the specifics such as when and where, we will hold off from any
flood watches at this time.

Overall, trends will be monitored for the need of a flood watch
across portions of the region through the remainder of the week. -AM

 - Forecast Confidence & Scenarios:

The greatest uncertainty this forecast period is related to the risk
for flash flooding Wednesday onward across the region. Confidence in
persistent thunderstorms is largely related to mesoscale features
(Such as stalled outflow boundaries, mountain anchoring, etc), which
are likely not going to be resolved until the day or of night prior.
Hence, no flood watches are being issued at this time, but will
continue to be considered. -AM

&&

.AVIATION...
28/18Z TAF Period

Low clouds are expected to persist along the Rocky Mountain Front
including KCTB through the next couple hours before lifting ahead
of the expected thunderstorm development this afternoon/evening.

A period of VFR conditions is expected before afternoon
thunderstorms start to develop and track northeast across the
region through this evening. A few storms later this afternoon
could produce damaging winds, large hail and localized heavy
rainfall with brief local local terrain obstruction and reduced
visibility.  Hoenisch/thor

Refer to weather.gov/zlc for more detailed regional aviation
weather and hazard information.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  56  82  59  82 /  50  20  30  30
CTB  52  76  54  78 /  30  20  30  20
HLN  56  82  58  82 /  60  40  40  40
BZN  51  84  54  82 /  40  50  40  40
WYS  40  81  43  80 /  10  30  30  50
DLN  47  84  49  81 /  20  50  30  40
HVR  55  82  56  84 /  40  30  10  10
LWT  53  76  53  76 /  60  50  50  50

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
346 PM MDT Mon Jul 28 2025

MTZ312-317-282230-
Little Belt and Highwood Mountains MT-Cascade County below 5000ft MT-
346 PM MDT Mon Jul 28 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT CENTRAL CASCADE COUNTY THROUGH
430 PM MDT...

At 346 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 15
miles southeast of Cascade, moving northeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Sluice Boxes State Park, Eden, Sand Coulee, Stockett, and
Centerville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 900 PM MDT for
central Montana.

&&

LAT...LON 4707 11145 4722 11155 4746 11104 4719 11080
TIME...MOT...LOC 2146Z 246DEG 25KT 4718 11140

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Glinskas

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
357 PM MDT Mon Jul 28 2025

MTZ313-317-282230-
Judith Basin County and Judith Gap MT-
Little Belt and Highwood Mountains MT-
357 PM MDT Mon Jul 28 2025

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT EAST CENTRAL JUDITH BASIN
COUNTY THROUGH 430 PM MDT...

At 357 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 7 miles southeast of Stanford to 16 miles west
of Hobson. Movement was northeast at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor hail damage to vegetation is possible.

Locations impacted include...
Hobson, Ackley Lake State Park, Windham, Utica, Moccasin, and
Benchland.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 900 PM MDT for
central Montana.

&&

LAT...LON 4687 11022 4703 11032 4719 10988 4718 10978
      4690 10976
TIME...MOT...LOC 2157Z 240DEG 14KT 4706 11014 4693 11021

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...<30 MPH

RCG

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
400 PM MDT Mon Jul 28 2025

MTZ312-282300-
Cascade County below 5000ft MT-
400 PM MDT Mon Jul 28 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN TETON...
SOUTHWESTERN CHOUTEAU AND NORTHWESTERN CASCADE COUNTIES THROUGH 500
PM MDT...

At 400 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Fort Shaw, or 14 miles north of Cascade, moving east at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Great Falls, Black Eagle, Fort  Shaw, Fort Shaw, Ulm, Portage,
Malmstrom Afb, Vaughn, First Peoples Buffalo Jump State Park, Simms,
and Sun River.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 900 PM MDT for
central and north central Montana.

&&

LAT...LON 4743 11105 4738 11190 4750 11194 4757 11192
      4770 11111
TIME...MOT...LOC 2200Z 258DEG 23KT 4747 11181

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Glinskas

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
407 PM MDT Mon Jul 28 2025

MTZ320-321-282245-
Big Belt, Bridger and Castle Mountains MT-Meagher County Valleys MT-
407 PM MDT Mon Jul 28 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN MEAGHER COUNTY
THROUGH 445 PM MDT...

At 407 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 9
miles south of White Sulphur Springs, moving northeast at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor hail damage to vegetation is possible.

Locations impacted include...
Lennep.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 900 PM MDT for
central Montana.

&&

LAT...LON 4630 11090 4646 11101 4662 11065 4638 11049
TIME...MOT...LOC 2207Z 245DEG 15KT 4642 11086

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...<30 MPH

RCG

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
422 PM MDT Mon Jul 28 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0311 PM     Hail             4 NW Winston            46.52N 111.71W
07/28/2025  E1.25 Inch       Broadwater         MT   Public

            Social media report estimating max hail size
            of 1.25 inches. Time estimated.

&&

AM

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
431 PM MDT Mon Jul 28 2025

MTZ312-282315-
Cascade County below 5000ft MT-
431 PM MDT Mon Jul 28 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT WEST CENTRAL CASCADE COUNTY
THROUGH 515 PM MDT...

At 431 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Cascade, moving east at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Cascade.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 900 PM MDT for
central Montana.

&&

LAT...LON 4744 11187 4742 11140 4717 11145 4727 11185
      4731 11184 4731 11188
TIME...MOT...LOC 2231Z 278DEG 12KT 4734 11178

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Glinskas