Red Flag Warning 2, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
858 PM EDT Sun Mar 16 2025

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 855 PM EDT Sun Mar 16 2025

No changes made to forecast grids as remaining showers/isolated
storms are adequately captured by existing forecast. Remaining
convection will exit our area to the south and east overnight with
cooler drier air filtering into the state. Dry conditions coupled
with breezy conditions on Monday may lead to some fire weather
concerns, otherwise cooler temps are expected with Monday
afternoon highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s followed by Monday
night lows dropping into the 40s to near 50 degrees. Hazardous
conditions continue for beachgoers through Monday with a High Risk
of Rip Currents.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 257 PM EDT Sun Mar 16 2025

Synoptic, non-convective winds out ahead of the line of storms today
have been impressive with a few areas gusting over 40mph. The storms
moving over the nature coast currently have remained below severe
criteria. However, the severe threat has not completely diminished
and the possibility of damaging winds and a couple tornadoes
still exists. Frequent lightning, heavy rainfall, and gusty winds
have already been observed as these storms move onshore. Remain
vigilant as this line of storms continues south. The threat will
lessen as it moves over southwest Florida later tonight.

Tomorrow a surface high will build back into the area as the
remaining frontal boundary pushes out. Winds will remain elevated as
the pressure gradient between these features remains tight. Dry
air will also filter in dropping dew points and humidity which
will increase the fire threat for the area. Temperatures will also
briefly drop with many waking up in the 40s again on Tuesday
morning. However the 80s return by mid week. Another, weak frontal
system moves over the area Thursday, but is expected to come and
go without much notice besides an increase in winds and a dip in
temperature and dew points.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 740 PM EDT Sun Mar 16 2025

Gusty conditions continue across terminals through the period as a
cold front pushes across the state followed by high pressure
building in, with SW winds veering to NW tonight into Monday
morning. Lingering showers diminish from north to south, likely
clearing all terminals to the south by 04Z, with any lingering
sub-VFR conditions returning to VFR by 05-06Z.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 257 PM EDT Sun Mar 16 2025

Hazardous marine conditions expected as a line of storms continues
to move over the waters and winds remain elevated through Tuesday
afternoon. Small craft advisory and rip current statements remain in
place for the duration.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 257 PM EDT Sun Mar 16 2025

Fire weather concerns will increase tomorrow as dry air moves
through and winds remain elevated. Dry air sticks around through
Wednesday, however winds will decrease Tuesday and remain low
Wednesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  59  66  51  77 /  40   0   0   0
FMY  64  73  49  80 /  40   0   0   0
GIF  59  70  47  77 /  70   0   0   0
SRQ  60  68  52  78 /  50   0   0   0
BKV  52  66  41  78 /  30   0   0   0
SPG  61  66  55  75 /  40   0   0   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Tuesday morning for Coastal
     Charlotte-Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-Coastal Manatee-
     Coastal Sarasota-Pinellas.

Gulf waters...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Tuesday for Charlotte Harbor
     and Pine Island Sound-Coastal waters from Bonita Beach to
     Englewood FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Englewood to
     Tarpon Springs FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Tarpon
     Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 NM-Tampa Bay waters-
     Waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 to 60 NM-
     Waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 to 60 NM-
     Waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 to
     60 NM.

&&

UPDATE/AVIATION...Hurt
DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Pearce
DECISION SUPPORT...Hubbard/Hurt
CLIMATE...Hubbard

Preliminary Local Storm Report...Summary
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
1005 PM EDT Sun Mar 16 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1236 PM     Marine Tstm Wind 1 SSE Cedar Key         29.14N 83.03W
03/16/2025  M34 MPH          GMZ850             FL   Buoy

            Buoy station CKYF1 Cedar Key, FL.

0212 PM     Non-Tstm Wnd Gst 1 WNW Sarasota          27.34N 82.56W
03/16/2025  M40 MPH          GMZ853             FL   Mesonet

            Mesonet station XSRB Sarasota Bay Marker 17.

0609 PM     Non-Tstm Wnd Gst 6 NNW Anna Maria Island 27.61N 82.76W
03/16/2025  M43 MPH          GMZ853             FL   Mesonet

            Mesonet station XEGM Egmont Channel.

0609 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     6 NNW Anna Maria Island 27.61N 82.76W
03/16/2025  M43 MPH          GMZ853             FL   Mesonet

            Mesonet station XEGM Egmont Channel.

0130 PM     Non-Tstm Wnd Gst 7 NW Palmetto           27.60N 82.65W
03/16/2025  M42 MPH          GMZ830             FL   Mesonet

            Mesonet station XSKY Skyway Fishing Pier.

0646 PM     Waterspout       5 NNW Palmetto          27.59N 82.61W
03/16/2025                   GMZ830             FL   Trained Spotter

            Spotter report of a waterspout in the south
            end of Tampa Bay near I-275.

1020 AM     Non-Tstm Wnd Gst 1 SSW Sarasota Bradento 27.38N 82.56W
03/16/2025  M41 MPH          Sarasota           FL   Mesonet

            Mesonet station 0128W 1.1 SW Sarasota
            Bradenton (WeatherSTEM).

1230 PM     Non-Tstm Wnd Gst 2 NNE Belleair          27.96N 82.80W
03/16/2025  M40 MPH          Pinellas           FL   Mesonet

            Mesonet station FW8592 Seminole.

1254 PM     Non-Tstm Wnd Gst 2 NW Seminole           27.86N 82.80W
03/16/2025  M44 MPH          Pinellas           FL   Mesonet

            Mesonet station AS052 Seminole.

0102 PM     Non-Tstm Wnd Gst 2 WNW Feather Sound     27.91N 82.69W
03/16/2025  M47 MPH          Pinellas           FL   ASOS

            ASOS station KPIE St Pete-Clearwater Intl.

0102 PM     Non-Tstm Wnd Gst 2 WNW Feather Sound     27.91N 82.69W
03/16/2025  M47 MPH          Pinellas           FL   ASOS

            ASOS station KPIE St Pete-Clearwater Intl.

0120 PM     Non-Tstm Wnd Gst 2 SW Highpoint          27.89N 82.74W
03/16/2025  M40 MPH          Pinellas           FL   Mesonet

            Mesonet station 1443W Largo Fire Rescue
            Station 38.

0540 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     1 E Baskin              27.89N 82.79W
03/16/2025  M39 MPH          Pinellas           FL   Mesonet

            Mesonet station 0503W 1.2 SW Largo
            (WeatherSTEM).

0714 PM     Funnel Cloud     4 S Zephyrhills         28.18N 82.17W
03/16/2025                   Pasco              FL   Public

            Funnel Cloud reported in Zephyrhills.

1204 PM     Non-Tstm Wnd Gst 1 S Whitfield           27.40N 82.57W
03/16/2025  M44 MPH          Manatee            FL   ASOS

            ASOS station KSRQ Sarasota Bradenton Intl.

0210 PM     Non-Tstm Wnd Gst 1 S Whitfield           27.40N 82.57W
03/16/2025  M45 MPH          Manatee            FL   ASOS

            ASOS station KSRQ Sarasota Bradenton Intl.

0130 PM     Non-Tstm Wnd Gst 1 W Tampa International 27.98N 82.53W
03/16/2025  M40 MPH          Hillsborough       FL   Mesonet

            Mesonet station 1829W FSWN Tampa Intl Apt.

0429 PM     Funnel Cloud     2 ESE Royal Highlands   28.63N 82.50W
03/16/2025                   Hernando           FL   Trained Spotter

            Spotter on the Suncoast Parkway in
            Brooksville saw a funnel cloud about 7 to 8
            miles north of his location but could not
            see if it made it to the ground. Location
            estimated by radar.

&&