Tornado Warning 3, NWS Tallahassee, FL

900 
WWUS52 KTAE 160913
SVSTAE

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
513 AM EDT Sun Mar 16 2025

GAC201-160923-
/O.CAN.KTAE.TO.W.0003.000000T0000Z-250316T0930Z/
Miller GA-
513 AM EDT Sun Mar 16 2025

...THE TORNADO WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN MILLER COUNTY IS CANCELLED...

The tornadic thunderstorm which prompted the warning has moved out 
of the warned area. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1000 AM EDT for southwestern
Georgia.

&&

LAT...LON 3151 8431 3131 8409 3118 8448 3128 8456
TIME...MOT...LOC 0913Z 237DEG 37KT 3125 8448 

$$

GAC007-095-205-160930-
/O.CON.KTAE.TO.W.0003.000000T0000Z-250316T0930Z/
Dougherty GA-Mitchell GA-Baker GA-
513 AM EDT Sun Mar 16 2025

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 530 AM EDT FOR SOUTH
CENTRAL DOUGHERTY...CENTRAL MITCHELL AND NORTHERN BAKER COUNTIES...

At 513 AM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located 9 miles southwest of Newton, moving northeast at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Tornado.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without 
         shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage 
         to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree damage is 
         likely.

This dangerous storm will be near...
  Newton around 520 AM EDT.
  Baconton around 540 AM EDT.

Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include
Hawkinstown, Flint, Mimsville, Red Store Crossroads, Hoggard Mill,
Greenough, and Elmodel Wma.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest
floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a
mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter
and protect yourself from flying debris.

&&

LAT...LON 3151 8431 3131 8409 3118 8448 3128 8456
TIME...MOT...LOC 0913Z 237DEG 37KT 3125 8448 

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...<.75 IN

$$

58-REESE

924 
WWUS52 KTAE 160927
SVSTAE

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
527 AM EDT Sun Mar 16 2025

GAC007-095-205-160937-
/O.EXP.KTAE.TO.W.0003.000000T0000Z-250316T0930Z/
Dougherty GA-Mitchell GA-Baker GA-
527 AM EDT Sun Mar 16 2025

...THE TORNADO WARNING FOR SOUTH CENTRAL DOUGHERTY...CENTRAL MITCHELL
AND NORTHERN BAKER COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 530 AM EDT...

The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer appears capable of producing a tornado.
Therefore, the warning will be allowed to expire.  However, gusty
winds are still possible with this thunderstorm.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1000 AM EDT for southwestern
Georgia.

&&

LAT...LON 3151 8431 3131 8409 3118 8448 3128 8456
TIME...MOT...LOC 0927Z 236DEG 35KT 3131 8438 

$$

58-REESE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
345 AM EDT Sun Mar 16 2025

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY...

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 251 AM EDT Sun Mar 16 2025

A broken line of strong to severe thunderstorms is continuing to
work its way eastward across the area this morning. While
convection has struggled to become more organized, parameters
still remain very favorable for a potentially significant tornado
threat through the rest of the morning. A very subtle shortwave
can be seen approaching the area in mid-level water vapor, and
this feature is likely the reason for the development and
strengthening of convection over the eastern Panhandle and out
over the waters. The best overlap for favorable parameters
continues to be over the far eastern Panhandle, western Big Bend,
and northward into the tri-state area. Mesoanalysis suggests a bit
of capping in place in the very low levels, which is likely
helping keep the tornado threat at bay at present, although CIN
change over the last 3 hours has shown an erosion of this cap
further east over the Big Bend and into south GA.

All of this to say, although this event has underperformed in our
local area so far tonight, don't let your guard down as some
redevelopment and strengthening through the morning is possible
as the shortwave moves closer and the cap erodes further. Any
remaining cap would likely erode after sunrise given the boost of
daytime heating. A tornado watch is in effect for much of the Big
Bend and south GA until 10 AM ET.

A cold front will push through the area in the wake of these
storms, with northwesterly winds bringing in a cooler and drier
air mass.

&&

.SHORT TERM & LONG TERM...
(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 251 AM EDT Sun Mar 16 2025

A cooler and drier air mass will be in place on Monday in the
wake of Sunday's cold front. This will knock high temperatures on
Monday into the 60s across the area under sunny skies. Lows are
forecast to bottom out in the upper 30s to mid 40s Monday night
with favorable radiational cooling. Starting Tuesday, onshore flow
returns and kicks off a warming and moistening trend across the
region. The next cold front is forecast to push through the area
Wednesday night into Thursday, once again knocking high
temperatures down into the mid 60s to low 70s. Scattered showers
and perhaps a couple of thunderstorms are possible with this
front, but severe weather is not expected at this time. Onshore
winds return again Friday, kicking off another warming and
moistening trend across the region.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 127 AM EDT Sun Mar 16 2025

Very windy conditions are ongoing across the area tonight with
gusty southerly winds and a strong low level jet bringing
additional low level wind shear to the region. A broken line of
showers and strong to severe thunderstorms is currently moving
into the area from the west and will push eastward through the
rest of the morning eventually impacting all taf sites. Conditions
improve to VFR afterward although breezy northwest to west winds
will remain.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 251 AM EDT Sun Mar 16 2025

Strong southerly breezes will continue this morning with frequent
gale force gusts west of Apalachicola. A squall line of severe
thunderstorms will continue to pass across the waters this
morning, bringing high potential for severe winds, waterspouts,
and some hail. Behind the squall line, a cold front will cross
the waters. Behind the front, a turn to westerly to northwesterly
is expected, with breezes becoming strong from Sunday night into
Monday. Winds will decrease on Monday, and a high pressure center
will pass across the waters on Tuesday. The next cold front will
cross the waters on Wednesday night.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 251 AM EDT Sun Mar 16 2025

A cold front is forecast to push across the area today
with breezy winds in its wake. This will lead to pockets
of high dispersions across the area this afternoon. While
winds decrease some on Monday, higher mixing heights will
keep dispersions on the higher side before finally lowering
on Tuesday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 251 AM EDT Sun Mar 16 2025

Isolated flash flooding will remain possible this morning as
strong to severe thunderstorms push eastward across the area. The
line of storms should make steady eastward progress, limiting
duration of intense rainfall rates and therefore overall rainfall
amounts. Most places are forecast to get about 1-1.5 inches of
rain, which would generally not cause issues. However some
isolated flash flooding may occur if any storms stall or train
over the same areas.

Some very minor coastal flooding is possible along the shoreline
of Apalachee Bay this morning. Strong southerly winds in advance
of a cold front will push water onshore, particularly along the
north and northeast side of Apalachee Bay. The normal tide cycle
has been amplified this weekend due to the recent full moon, so a
lot will depend on if the peak onshore push of water can overlap
with the normal high tide. For now, we are still good holding off
on any coastal flood headlines.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is requested. Spotters should safely report
significant weather conditions and/or damage by calling the
office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   81  47  66  42 /  50   0   0   0
Panama City   74  48  67  46 /  10   0   0   0
Dothan        77  43  65  40 /   0   0   0   0
Albany        78  44  65  39 /  20   0   0   0
Valdosta      82  47  66  42 /  90   0   0   0
Cross City    76  48  66  41 /  90   0   0   0
Apalachicola  74  49  66  48 /  40   0   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Wind Advisory until 5 AM EDT /4 AM CDT/ early this morning for
     FLZ007>017-026-027-108-112-114-115-127.

     High Rip Current Risk through Monday evening for FLZ108-112-114-
     115.

     High Surf Advisory until 5 PM EDT /4 PM CDT/ this afternoon for
     FLZ108-112-114.

GA...Wind Advisory until 5 AM EDT early this morning for GAZ120>131-
     142>146-155>158.

AL...Wind Advisory until 4 AM CDT early this morning for ALZ065>069.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT Monday for GMZ730-755-765-
     775.

     Gale Warning until 10 AM CDT this morning for GMZ750-752-770-772.

     Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 3 PM CDT Monday
     for GMZ750-752-770-772.

&&

NEAR TERM...Merrifield
SHORT TERM...Merrifield
LONG TERM....Merrifield
AVIATION...Merrifield
MARINE...Merrifield
FIRE WEATHER...Merrifield
HYDROLOGY...Merrifield

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
324 AM EDT Sun Mar 16 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0311 AM     Marine Tstm Wind 1 E Saint Andrews State 30.13N 85.72W
03/16/2025  M39 MPH          GMZ750             FL   Mesonet

            Mesonet station XSTA St. Andrew Bay.

&&