Special Weather Statement, NWS Tallahassee, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
235 PM EDT Thu Aug 7 2025

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY...

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Friday)
Issued at 235 PM EDT Thu Aug 7 2025

Drier conditions across Alabama and Georgia will keep rain chances
lower this afternoon but moist conditions across Florida will keep
rain chances high. Northeasterly flow at the surface has kept
conditions fairly stable across much of the region with stratus
prevailing, but the stratus is beginning to break up with showers
and storms developing where stratus has thinned out and a more
robust cumulus field has developed. Main concerns today is with
heavy rain. Widespread flooding rains aren't anticipated but slow
movers are forecast and isolated 3 to 4 inch rainfall amounts can't
be ruled out.

Broad upper level trough and low-level northeasterly flow should be
continuing tomorrow but deep-layer moisture should be a little
higher across the area so rain chances should be a little higher.
Slow storm motions again are possible which could lead to localized
areas of flooding in low-lying areas and poor drainage areas. With
the cooler northeasterly flow subsiding somewhat tomorrow and a
little less stratus in the morning, we should be able to warm up a
few degrees higher than this afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 235 PM EDT Thu Aug 7 2025

A tropical wave will slide into the northeast Gulf this weekend
while a meandering front will slowly sag south into the Gulf waters
before dissipating Monday. PWATs bump back up over 2.1 inches most
locations which will lead to an increase in rain chances areawide.
Scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms will occur each
day through Monday, although convection will be more diurnally
driven and more typical for summertime. Gusty winds and locally
heavy rainfall will accompany stronger convection. Northeasterly
winds for much of the week will also tend to favor convection over
our FL counties as the ambient flow and seabreeze collide.

Beyond Monday, the subtropical ridge gains influence into the
southeast US with rain chances declining back to more typical levels
for August. In conjunction, highs will jump back into the low to mid
90s and heat indices pushing back towards 108F possibly requiring
heat advisories for the middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 235 PM EDT Thu Aug 7 2025

MVFR/VFR conditions will prevail this afternoon with light
northeasterly flow. Scattered showers/storms will bring occasional
MVFR/IFR conditions due to reduced visibilities mainly from 19 to
00z. A period of VFR conditions is forecast overnight, but by
sunrise, and potentially through 18z Friday, IFR cigs could develop
across our AL/GA terminals with the highest probabilities at ABY/VLD
but IFR ceilings can't be ruled out as far southwest as TLH/ECP/DHN.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 235 PM EDT Thu Aug 7 2025

Favorable marine conditions will persist into the weekend. A
tropical wave will enter the northern Gulf Saturday through Monday
with an increase in showers and thunderstorms each day favoring
the overnight into morning periods. Beyond Monday, high pressure
builds through the southeast US with winds becoming east to
southeast and an overall decreasing trend to the rain chances.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 235 PM EDT Thu Aug 7 2025

Low fire weather concerns are forecast the next few days with
moist conditions and increasing rain chances expected into the
weekend. The wettest locations will likely be the Florida Big
Bend, with lower rain chances across southeast Alabama. Only
concerns will be dispersions on the lower side, but most
locations should still remain above 25 into the weekend.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 235 PM EDT Thu Aug 7 2025

Scattered to widespread showers and storms are expected each day
through the weekend and into early next week, with the greatest
coverage generally expected over the FL counties. Widespread
flooding is not expected, although locally heavy rainfall could
cause isolated flooding issues in urban or already saturated
areas.

Several rivers and streams remain in or are forecast to reach
action stage due to recent rainfall. However, no flooding is
forecast at this time.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   73  88  73  87 /  20  50  20  80
Panama City   74  89  75  89 /  30  50  40  80
Dothan        70  86  72  87 /   0  20  10  60
Albany        70  87  72  87 /   0  20  10  70
Valdosta      71  89  72  88 /  20  50  20  80
Cross City    72  90  72  90 /  60  80  50  90
Apalachicola  76  87  77  87 /  50  60  60  90

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

NEAR TERM...Dobbs
SHORT TERM...Scholl
LONG TERM....Scholl
AVIATION...Dobbs
MARINE...Scholl
FIRE WEATHER...Dobbs
HYDROLOGY...Merrifield

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
449 PM EDT Thu Aug 7 2025

FLZ034-134-072115-
Coastal Dixie FL-Inland Dixie FL-
449 PM EDT Thu Aug 7 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT DIXIE COUNTY THROUGH 515 PM
EDT...

At 449 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles southwest of Cross City, moving east at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Cross City, Horseshoe Point, Horseshoe Beach, Shamrock, Shired
Island, Cross City Airport, Eugene, and Yellow Jacket.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 2941 8338 2966 8348 2968 8343 2966 8337
      2970 8335 2972 8302 2947 8298 2946 8300
      2943 8302 2937 8315
TIME...MOT...LOC 2049Z 266DEG 13KT 2956 8322

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

02-MONTGOMERY