Special Weather Statement, NWS Tallahassee, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
637 AM EDT Wed Aug 6 2025

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 148 AM EDT Wed Aug 6 2025

Unsettled weather looks to continue tomorrow as a similar setup to
yesterday develops. A richly moist airmass remains firmly in place
Wednesday, with current HREF guidance indicating PWATs ranging
between 2.0-2.1" tomorrow afternoon. Additionally, a weak
stationary front stays draped over the area through Wednesday,
allowing for enhanced lift via a subtle axis of forced
convergence.

With this, scattered showers and thunderstorms should initiate early-
late morning along our southwestern coastal areas, becoming more
widespread across the CWA by early afternoon as the seabreeze begins
to push inland. Storm motion will again be southwest to northeast.
The main concern today is the continued threat of excessive rain,
especially for regions in SW AL / SE GA where flooding has already
occurred over the past few days. Flash flood guidance for these
areas remains low, and with elevated PWATs it would not take much
to cause isolated flooding concerns, especially if any heavy or
training storms are able to establish over already saturated
grounds. Thus, the Flood Watch remains in effect for these areas
through this evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM & LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 148 AM EDT Wed Aug 6 2025

A stalled front currently over our area is forecast to gradually
sag further south and wash out over the next couple of days.
Fairly high moisture is forecast to remain over the area through
the week with a weak trough over the southeast US for much of the
week and into the weekend. This setup will still favor scattered
to widespread showers and thunderstorms each day, although
convection will be more diurnally driven and more typical for
summertime. While gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall will
still be possible, the overall flooding threat is expected to be
lower than in recent days. Northeasterly winds for much of the
week will also tend to favor convection over our FL counties as
the ambient flow and seabreeze collide. With fairly widespread
coverage of showers and storms, highs are forecast to generally be
in the mid 80s to low 90s into the weekend with heat indices in
the mid 90s to near 105.

Late in the weekend into early next week, the trough lifts
northward and ridging begins to set up over the area. This will
lead to slightly warmer temperatures and less coverage of daily
showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 634 AM EDT Wed Aug 6 2025

Bouts of IFR to LIFR conditions continue for a few hours this
morning for KDHN and KABY. There's also a pesky stratus deck
lurking not too far from KTLH this morning, but not confident it
makes it over the aerodrome. If it does, it shouldn't last
terribly long.

Otherwise, another round of showers and storms is forecast to move
from southwest to northeast across the region. Confidence is
highest in the FL terminals being impacted with lesser confidence
in the AL and GA terminals, which is why TEMPO groups are in place
for the FL terminals. Following today's showers and storms,
another round of IFR, perhaps LIFR, ceilings is possible for KABY
and KDHN, but confidence wasn't high enough to go that low with
this TAF package.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 148 AM EDT Wed Aug 6 2025

A stalled front will remain over the Gulf waters or just inland
before moving south of the waters by Thursday. There will be
shower and thunderstorm chances each day, with the potential
for briefly higher winds and seas.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 148 AM EDT Wed Aug 6 2025

Wet pattern continues through the forecast period with a stalled
front across the region. Daily scattered to widespread showers and
thunderstorms will develop across the region focused during the
afternoon and evening hours. Main concern will be pockets of
persistent low dispersion in the afternoon hours on Wednesday as
well as any erratic and gusty winds with thunderstorms through the
end of the forecast period.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 1001 PM EDT Tue Aug 5 2025

A Flood Watch continues for much of southwest Georgia and parts of
southeast Alabama. There may be opportunities to trim a few
counties from the watch overnight, perhaps the Alabama portion,
but am wanting holding off for now until the current round of rain
is done.

Forecast rainfall amounts on Wednesday are not uncommonly heavy
by our usual summer standards, but flash flood guidance is running
low in places that could very well get a quick 2 to 3 inches of
rain on Wednesday, especially along the U.S. 82 corridor .

Heavy rain in recent days has caused or is causing notable rises
on most rivers, but they are all expected to remain within their
banks and not flood. Action stage is expected or occurring on the
Saint Marks, Sopchoppy, Kinchafoonee, Flint, and now Spring Creek.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   89  74  88  73 /  70  30  80  30
Panama City   89  75  89  74 /  80  30  70  40
Dothan        87  72  86  71 /  70  20  50  10
Albany        88  72  86  71 /  80  30  60  20
Valdosta      91  73  88  72 /  70  40  80  40
Cross City    93  74  93  73 /  60  30  80  50
Apalachicola  89  76  88  76 /  70  30  70  50

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...Flood Watch through this evening for GAZ120>131-142>146.

AL...Flood Watch through this evening for ALZ067>069.

GM...None.
&&

NEAR TERM...Reese
SHORT TERM...Merrifield
LONG TERM....Merrifield
AVIATION...Reese
MARINE...Merrifield
FIRE WEATHER...Reese
HYDROLOGY...Haner

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