Severe Thunderstorm Warning 71, NWS Tallahassee, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
149 PM EDT Mon Mar 31 2025

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1124 AM EDT Mon Mar 31 2025

Fog and low stratus has been stubborn this morning along the
Panhandle Coast and interior zones across Alabama. Some breaks
were developing across our southwest Georgia counties. Overall,
hi-res guidance has come in somewhat less aggressive in convective
activity for this afternoon. However, favorable lapse rates aloft
still support a somewhat conditional threat of severe weather if
instability can materialize. The main concerns will be damaging
wind gusts around 60 mph in any severe storms. Additionally, some
hail and tornado concerns are present, but these would mostly
likely exist in any storms that can form ahead of the primary
squall line.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 247 AM EDT Mon Mar 31 2025

Other than some early morning fog, the main hazard today is an
approaching squall line west of the area. The overall thinking has
not really changed much since yesterday. The SPC has maintained
an Enhanced Risk of severe storms across a large portion of the
area, driven mainly by the potential for damaging straight line
wind gusts. Secondary threats include a brief tornado or two and
isolated instances of large hail. Looking at forecast soundings
ahead of the line, instability is forecast to be plentiful in our
area with surface based CAPE values in the 2000-3000 j/kg range on
the overnight HRRR runs. Point soundings for Dothan at 1 pm CT on
multiple models also show steep mid-level lapse rates and 30-40
knots of deep layer shear. This should be enough to sustain an
organized cluster or line of storms into the western part of the
forecast area. In addition, DCAPE values in the 700-800 j/kg range
could give a boost to the damaging wind potential, despite
somewhat weaker low level winds. There is still some question as
to how far east the line will hold together as the best dynamics
lift north of the area. However, decent instability and DCAPE
values are forecast to exist through the forecast area, which will
help sustain a wind threat with the line as it progresses
eastward through the afternoon.

Potential limiting factors include the possibility that morning
low clouds and fog linger slightly longer than expected and cut
into the instability for this afternoon. In addition, dynamics
gradually weaken with time as the system pushes eastward.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tuesday through Wednesday night)
Issued at 247 AM EDT Mon Mar 31 2025

The showers and thunderstorms of Monday's system will have
cleared out of the area by the start of this short term. The
parent cold front will be pushing through the Tri-State region
Tuesday morning, allowing skies to begin clearing by the
afternoon. There may be a few lingering showers on Tuesday along
the cold front, but any strong to severe storms are unlikely as
there will be limited instability to work with. PoPs for Tuesday
are minimal ranging around 10-20 percent. We can expect
southwesterly flow aloft to quickly return Wednesday, keeping our
dewpoints in the 60s, and our temperatures warm in the mid to
upper 80s for Tuesday's and Wednesday's highs. Our eastern-most
counties may have temperatures reach 90 degrees on Wednesday.
Expect overnight lows in the mid to upper 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 247 AM EDT Mon Mar 31 2025

Upper level high pressure extending from northeast of the Bahamas
will keep us high and dry for the long term heading into the
weekend. Afternoon temperatures will remain above normal with
highs in the mid to upper 80s, with our eastern counties
experiencing the low 90s. Overnight lows will range in the
mid-60s.

As we approach the end of the long term period, there is an upper
level shortwave trough with an attending cold front ahead of it.
Showers and thunderstorms will be possible along the line of the
cold front, which would bring our next chance for precipitation.
For now, PoPs ranges from 40-60 percent on Sunday. Given that this
is several days away, there is much uncertainty in regards to
timing, storm mode, and potential severe hazards. We will provide
updates as confidence increases.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 148 PM EDT Mon Mar 31 2025

Squall line currently crossing ECP/DHN will move thru remaining
terminals over the next several hrs, then exit to the east by
sunset. Expect degraded flt conds with strong-gusty winds,
frequent lightning, and pockets of heavy downpours with this
activity. Conditions temporarily improve later this
afternoon/early evening before widespread fog/low stratus blankets
the region tonight. Sites appear to approach airport minimums
near sunrise tmrw.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 247 AM EDT Mon Mar 31 2025

Dense fog is expected to continue through the mid-morning hours
for our marine zones, particularly the near-shore zones.

A line (or broken line) of showers and thunderstorms are expected
to move through our marine zones through the day Monday. Some
storms may be strong to severe with gusty winds, large hail, and a
few waterspouts are possible. The storms should clear out by this
evening as the cold front moves through, leading to a period of
light winds and seas for Tuesday into Wednesday. Southeasterly
flow will increase for Thursday leading to Cautionary to near-
Advisory level conditions.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 247 AM EDT Mon Mar 31 2025

A cold front will move through today with a round of showers and
thunderstorms for most areas. MinRH values through the next few
days look to remain above critical thresholds. There are currently
no fire weather concerns.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 247 AM EDT Mon Mar 31 2025

Showers and thunderstorms are expected today, but is forecast to
be a quick-moving system. Rain amounts are expected to be around
an inch or less. With no other substantial rain expected for the
rest of the week, there are no flooding concerns.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is requested. Spotters should safely report
significant weather conditions and/or damage by calling the
office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   79  64  83  65 /  70  20  10   0
Panama City   74  65  79  66 /  80  20   0   0
Dothan        76  62  82  64 /  90  20   0   0
Albany        77  61  83  63 /  90  30   0   0
Valdosta      80  65  84  64 /  70  30  10   0
Cross City    79  64  83  63 /  30  20  10   0
Apalachicola  74  65  75  66 /  60  20   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for FLZ108-112-114-
     115.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for GMZ735.

&&

NEAR TERM...DVD
SHORT TERM...Montgomery
LONG TERM....Montgomery
AVIATION...IG3
MARINE...Montgomery
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...Montgomery

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
125 PM EDT Mon Mar 31 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0120 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     3 SW Slocomb            31.08N 85.63W
03/31/2025  M54 MPH          Geneva             AL   Mesonet

            WiregrassWX Ambient Weather Station recorded
            a wind gust of 54mph at 12:20pm CDT.

&&

DR

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
129 PM EDT Mon Mar 31 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0117 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     3 SSW Freeport          30.46N 86.16W
03/31/2025  M40 MPH          Walton             FL   Mesonet

            Beatrice Point Road Ambient weather station
            recorded a wind gust of 40 mph at 1:17pm
            CDT.

&&

DR

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
131 PM EDT Mon Mar 31 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0111 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     3 SW Santa Rosa Beach   30.36N 86.26W
03/31/2025  M45 MPH          Walton             FL   Mesonet

            5 Grande Ambient Weather station recorded a
            wind gust of 45 mph at 12:11pm CDT.

&&

DR

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