Severe Thunderstorm Warning 221, NWS Tallahassee, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
403 PM EDT Wed Jul 30 2025

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Thursday)
Issued at 308 PM EDT Wed Jul 30 2025

Another heat advisory is in place for tomorrow afternoon, but with
increasing cloud cover as storms across SE Alabama and the FL
Panhandle get going, advisory conditions are expected to be confined
to our FL counties and first row of southern GA counties. Mid-level
dry air will be intruding across the eastern half of the region,
with the best PWATs across SE Alabama and the FL Panhandle
leading to the best chances for showers and storms being there.

Expect overnight lows in the mid to upper 70s with daytime highs in
the low to mid 90s.

&&

.SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 308 PM EDT Wed Jul 30 2025

Heading into the weekend a cold front looks to dip down across the
Southeast as high pressure and the upper-level ridge breaks down.
Every day we'll see increasing chances for showers and storms as
southerly flow advects moisture across the region, mixing out the
dry mid-level air we're currently experiencing. PWATs look to be
around 2 to 2.5 inches leading to concerns of flash flooding over
areas that have seen continuous rainfall over the last few days or
areas with poor drainage. The front looks to sag Saturday into
Sunday which could lead to training storms, further enhancing
these concerns. By Monday the cold front moves on and PWATs drop
to 1.5 to 2 inches leading to more usual summertime convective
activity. The WPC maintains marginal and slight risks of excessive
rainfall this weekend. Daytime temps look to remain below
advisory level after this weekend.

Expect daytime highs to generally be in the 90s until Saturday, by
Sunday daytime highs look to dip into the upper 80s. Expect
overnight lows to generally remain in the mid 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 308 PM EDT Wed Jul 30 2025

Scattered showers and storms will potentially affect area terminals,
mostly from TLH westward, for this afternoon. VFR conditions should
prevail but occasional MVFR/IFR visibilities are possible in the
stronger showers/storms. Shower/storm activity should diminish
around/after sunset. MVFR cigs at TLH/ABY/DHN can't be ruled out
from 09-13z, but confidence was too low to mention as a prevailing
group in the TAF.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 308 PM EDT Wed Jul 30 2025

Westerly/southwesterly winds at around 10-15 kts can be expected
through the next few days with seas of 1-2 feet. Showers and
thunderstorms remain possible each day but are expected to become
more numerous as we head into next weekend.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 308 PM EDT Wed Jul 30 2025

Temperatures will continue to remain hot the next few days and that
will be the primary weather concern for folks outside through the
week. Rain chances will remain relatively low through Thursday as
drier mid-level air moves in. Fire concerns will remain low but
dispersions will begin to creep up over the next few days.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 227 AM EDT Wed Jul 30 2025

Through the next 7 days, a wetter pattern is expected to move
over the region. Rainfall totaling 1-3 inches with locally higher
amounts are possible which could lead to isolated/nuisance
flooding issues. The WPC has placed our region in Marginal (1/4)
and Slight (2/4) risks for excessive rainfall for Friday through
Sunday. Local riverine flooding is not anticipated at this time.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   77  94  77  95 /  10  40  10  60
Panama City   81  91  81  92 /  10  40  20  60
Dothan        76  92  76  94 /  20  40  20  70
Albany        76  95  76  95 /  20  30  20  60
Valdosta      75  96  76  97 /  10  20  10  40
Cross City    77  93  76  94 /   0  20   0  30
Apalachicola  81  89  80  90 /   0  30  10  50

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT /6 PM CDT/ this evening for
     FLZ007>019-027>029-034-108-112-114-115-118-127-128-134-326-
     426.

     Heat Advisory from noon EDT /11 AM CDT/ to 7 PM EDT /6 PM CDT/
     Thursday for FLZ007>019-027>029-034-108-112-114-115-118-127-
     128-134-326-426.

     High Rip Current Risk until 10 PM EDT this evening for FLZ115.

GA...Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for GAZ120>131-142>148-
     155>161.

     Heat Advisory from noon to 7 PM EDT Thursday for GAZ155>161.

AL...Heat Advisory until 6 PM CDT this evening for ALZ065>069.

GM...None.
&&

NEAR TERM...Oliver
SHORT TERM...Oliver
LONG TERM....Oliver
AVIATION...Dobbs
MARINE...Oliver
FIRE WEATHER...Oliver
HYDROLOGY...Montgomery

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
308 PM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025

ALZ065-068-302100-
Coffee AL-Geneva AL-
308 PM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHERN COFFEE AND NORTHWESTERN
GENEVA COUNTIES THROUGH 400 PM CDT...

At 308 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
New Brockton, or 8 miles west of Enterprise, moving northwest at 5
mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Elba, Enterprise, Fort Rucker, New Brockton, Kinston, Coffee Springs,
Chancellor, Perry Store, Curtis, Carl Folsom A/p, Lucile, Ino, Turner
Crossroads, Central City, Clintonville, Goodman, Camp Alaflo Bsa,
Basin, Enterprise Municipal A/P, and Earlytown.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3145 8619 3144 8579 3120 8579 3109 8619
TIME...MOT...LOC 2008Z 124DEG 5KT 3129 8596

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

58-REESE

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
414 PM EDT Wed Jul 30 2025

ALZ067-GAZ121-142-302045-
Henry AL-Clay GA-Early GA-
414 PM EDT Wed Jul 30 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN HENRY...SOUTH
CENTRAL CLAY AND NORTHWESTERN EARLY COUNTIES THROUGH 445 PM EDT/345
PM CDT/...

At 414 PM EDT/314 PM CDT/, Doppler radar was tracking a strong
thunderstorm near Blakely. The strong thunderstorm is nearly
stationary.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Blakely, Haleburg, Barnes, Miller, Ferrell Crossroads, Hardwickburg,
Early Co A/p, Hayes, and Kolomoki Mounds Sp.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3134 8489 3136 8516 3151 8517 3152 8501
      3150 8489
TIME...MOT...LOC 2014Z 183DEG 4KT 3143 8501

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

58-REESE

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
322 PM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025

ALZ068-FLZ009-302045-
Geneva AL-Holmes FL-
322 PM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN GENEVA AND NORTH
CENTRAL HOLMES COUNTIES THROUGH 345 PM CDT...

At 321 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles southeast of Geneva, moving north at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Geneva, Black, Miller Crossroads, Eunola, Bethlehem, Ards Crossroads,
Smith Crossroads, Izagora, New Hope, Geneva Municipal A/P, Thurston,
and Baker Settlement.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3083 8574 3087 8592 3108 8586 3105 8564
TIME...MOT...LOC 2021Z 190DEG 13KT 3094 8581

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

58-REESE

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
344 PM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025

ALZ068-FLZ009-011-302115-
Geneva AL-Holmes FL-Jackson FL-
344 PM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN GENEVA...
NORTHWESTERN JACKSON AND NORTHEASTERN HOLMES COUNTIES THROUGH 415 PM
CDT...

At 344 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 9
miles west of Graceville, moving north at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Graceville, Hartford, Slocomb, Esto, Noma, Fadette, Holmes County
Airport, Bethlehem, Tendil Crossing, Holland Crossroads, Ards
Crossroads, Cobb Crossroads, and Noma Junction.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3111 8568 3107 8549 3102 8549 3083 8555
      3083 8560 3082 8560 3085 8577
TIME...MOT...LOC 2044Z 191DEG 15KT 3094 8566

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

58-REESE

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
351 PM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025

ALZ065-066-068-FLZ009-302115-
Dale AL-Coffee AL-Geneva AL-Holmes FL-
351 PM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN DALE...SOUTHEASTERN
COFFEE...CENTRAL GENEVA AND NORTH CENTRAL HOLMES COUNTIES THROUGH 415
PM CDT...

At 351 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a cluster of strong
thunderstorms over Geneva, moving north at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Geneva, Hartford, Clayhatchee, Coffee Springs, Black, Miller
Crossroads, Chancellor, Kellys Crossroads, Eunola, Lucile, High
Bluff, Highfalls, Dundee, Central City, Geneva Municipal A/P, Cool
Springs, Battens Crossroads, Vaughanville, Hendrix Crossroad, and
Smith Crossroads.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3127 8593 3123 8569 3121 8569 3119 8571
      3120 8563 3093 8574 3097 8595
TIME...MOT...LOC 2051Z 200DEG 18KT 3104 8584

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

58-REESE