Severe Thunderstorm Warning 202, NWS Tallahassee, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
307 PM EDT Tue Jul 15 2025

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER,
HYDROLOGY...

.NEAR TERM...
(Tonight)
Issued at 154 PM EDT Tue Jul 15 2025

The low-level center of a tropical low known as Invest AL93 is now
moving westward across the East Coast of Florida, between Palm
Coast and Saint Augustine. This system has been highly sheared due
to strong northeast upper level winds. This is causing the heavy
rain to shear off to the southwest of the low-level center. At 2
pm ET, regional radars showed heavy rain moving west across
north-central Florida near Ocala. Some of the heavy rain could
clip Dixie County late this afternoon and this evening, perhaps
coming initially as a seabreeze blowup of storms, then a second
round that would be more directly related to AL93. Dixie county
already picked up 5 inches of rain yesterday, filling a lot of
ditches with water. This will make the northern Nature Coast more
susceptible to flooding this evening. 2 to 4 inches of rain is
likely, with spotty amounts of 5 to 7 inches. Have therefore
issued a Flood Watch for Dixie County, effective from 4 pm this
afternoon until 6 am Wednesday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Wednesday through Thursday night)
Issued at 154 PM EDT Tue Jul 15 2025

We will be closely watching AL93 during this period, as it passes
west across our region. NHC has maintained a 40 percent chance of
tropical development over the northeast or north-central Gulf.
Regardless of development, somewhat common impacts are expected
across our region. Rip currents at beaches could be a big deal on
Thursday and Friday, given a long fetch of fresh southerly breezes
across the eastern Gulf, as AL93 moves off west of our service
area. Other impacts will be fresh to possibly strong breezes on
the Gulf waters, and pockets of heavy rain closer to the coast.

AL93 is a disorganized feature as it makes landfall on the FL
East Coast. Satellite imagery shows an exposed low-level center,
and its convective pattern is heavily lopsided and influenced by
northeasterly shear. There will be multiple factors working
against development of AL93 before it exits west of our service
area on Wed night or early Thursday.

First scenario... the center tracks too far north closer to I-10
and never re-emerges over the Gulf. Case closed... no
redevelopment. It would just be a broad low with some extra rain.

Second scenario... the center re-emerges over Apalachee Bay and
basically tracks westward along the Forgotten Coast and Emerald
Coast. This corridor is where there may be the least amount of
TC-killing shear and the most favorable atmospheric conditions.
However, the proximity to land would be a significant inhibitor to
development. Heavier rain would probably stay near or off the
coast, with lopsided development due to land interaction.

Third scenario... the center re-emerges even further south and
tracks further offshore. On one hand, the system would then have a
wider swatch of warm Gulf waters to fester and re-develop over.
However, global models show strong E-NE upper level winds further
offshore, so this would inhibit development before getting west of
our waters. The northeast shear would keep the heaviest wind and
rain south through west of the center, i.e. even further offshore.

The commonality of all three scenarios is that the system will
struggle to redevelop before exiting our region. If it does
redevelop, it will be lopsided, with the heavier wind and rain
offshore.

So this leaves rip currents as the top concern, especially
Thursday and Friday once southerly breezes kick in. The second
concern will be heavy rain, mainly south of I-10. Small Craft
Advisory strength winds are possible over the Gulf waters. PETSS
guidance shows no reasonable case for coastal flooding.

Do stay weather aware through at least Thursday. A lot can change
with a system such as this. Even a low-end tropical system can
produce a lot of rain, and rip currents will be a big deal at
beaches on Thu and Fri.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 154 PM EDT Tue Jul 15 2025

The subtropical ridge will quickly build in from the east from
Friday through early next week. The air mass will start to bake
under the subtropical ridge, and temperatures will rise above
normal again by Saturday. PW values will bottom out over the
weekend as large-scale subsidence is maximized under the building
ridge. Even then, there will be enough moisture and seabreeze-
inspired lift for at least a few storms.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 128 PM EDT Tue Jul 15 2025

VFR conditions will prevail through the afternoon and early
evening with the only exceptions behind scattered to widespread
shower and storm activity from 19z to 00z this evening. With
northeast winds, best chances are likely at ECP/TLH but potential
exists at VLD/DHN and to a lesser extent ABY. Showers and storms
die down later this evening. IFR ceilings are possible tonight
from ABY/TLH and eastward as low cigs move in from the east

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 154 PM EDT Tue Jul 15 2025

A trough of low pressure will move west across the waters on
Wednesday and Wednesday night. There is a 40 percent chance that
this trough could form into a tropical depression while traversing
the northeast and north-central Gulf. Once the trough moves west
of the waters, fresh and possibly strong southerly breezes are
likely on Thursday. The subtropical ridge axis will build westward
across the Florida Peninsula and into the eastern Gulf from Friday
through the weekend.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 154 PM EDT Tue Jul 15 2025

A moist air mass will be in place on Wednesday and Thursday, as a
weak tropical low moves across and west of our region. Heavy rain
is possible, mainly over Florida districts. The tropical low will
be long-gone on Friday, and regular summertime high pressure will
build back in. Temperatures this weekend will climb back above
normal.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 154 PM EDT Tue Jul 15 2025

A Flood Watch is now in effect for Dixie County, which already saw
about 5 inches of rain on Monday. An additional 2 to 4 inches
through this evening with local amounts of 5 to 7 inches would
cause even more flooding.

Heavy rain will be possible over our Florida counties through
Thursday, as a tropical low moves west across the region. Along
the Forgotten Coast, multi-day rain totals of 2 to 5 inches are
possible. We will have to most closely watch any slow-moving or
pivoting bands of heavy rain that develop south of the low-level
center of the tropical low. WPC has outlooked much of the area,
especially closer to the coast, in a marginal risk for excessive
rainfall through late this week.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   75  88  76  91 /  50  90  30  90
Panama City   76  89  77  89 /  70  90  60  90
Dothan        75  91  75  93 /  30  70  10  80
Albany        75  91  74  95 /  10  60  10  60
Valdosta      74  93  75  95 /  10  70  10  60
Cross City    71  91  73  92 /  80  80  40  80
Apalachicola  77  86  79  87 /  60  90  70  90

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ this evening for
     FLZ007>016-027-108-112-114-115-118-127-326-426.

     Flood Watch through late tonight for FLZ034-134.

GA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for GAZ155>157.

AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

NEAR TERM...Haner
SHORT TERM...Haner
LONG TERM....Haner
AVIATION...Dobbs
MARINE...Haner
FIRE WEATHER...Haner
HYDROLOGY...Haner

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