Severe Thunderstorm Warning 192, NWS Tallahassee, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
200 PM EDT Thu Jul 10 2025

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY...

.NEAR TERM and SHORT TERM...
(Through Saturday Night)
Issued at 153 PM EDT Thu Jul 10 2025

High pressure will hold over the region through the near term
with minor shortwaves passing through that will provide the lift
for showers and thunderstorms to develop during the late morning
into afternoon hours for much of the region. PoPs for Friday and
Saturday range from 50 to 70 percent in the afternoon, with
temperatures in the low to mid 90s through Saturday. PWATs will be
around 2 inches on Friday, allowing for the possibility for heavy
rainfall with any thunderstorms that develop. The WPC has
highlighted most of the CWA in a Marginal (level 1 of 4) risk for
Excessive Rainfall through Friday. The humidity will be
noticeable, causing the heat indices to rise above 100 across the
CWA. However, the max heat index is forecast to remain below
Advisory criteria for Friday and Saturday. Morning temperatures
will be in the mid 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 153 PM EDT Thu Jul 10 2025

High pressure is expected to build over the weekend. The high
pressure will be centered over the Gulf Sunday, allowing for
northwest flow to enter in. This will lower our rain chances in
the afternoon while increasing our temperatures. High temperatures
on Sunday will be in the mid-upper 90s with PoPs limited to 50-60
percent. We will have to monitor the humidity levels regarding
heat indices as we will be approaching Advisory criteria.
Overnight lows will remain in the mid-70s, with upper 70s along
the immediate coast. Continuing the heat, we will be watching the
dew points and humidity values for the heat indices. We will be
approaching Advisory criteria and may need heat advisories for the
start of the week. Actual temperatures will be in the upper 90s
with the same afternoon showers and thunderstorms developing.

The ridge is expected to break down later on Monday as a trough
digs south along the Eastern Seaboard, creating the opportunity
for unsettled weather for the week. PoPs look to increase to 60-80
percent for the afternoons as temperatures return to the low to
mid 90s. Overnight lows will be in the mid-70s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 115 PM EDT Thu Jul 10 2025

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the TAF period,
however MVFR cigs and/or vsbys will be possible within any
thunderstorms that may develop or pass over the TAF sites.
Scattered to widespread showers/thunderstorms are expected this
afternoon through the evening hours. Within the storms, strong to
damaging gusty winds are possible, along with heavy rain and
lightning. During the overnight hours, winds are expected to be
light to calm with VFR ceilings. A similar setup is expected for
Friday with another round of showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 153 PM EDT Thu Jul 10 2025

A typical summertime pattern will result in generally light west
to southwest flow which will be enhanced to 10 to 15 knots near
the coast by the afternoon sea breeze. Convection will be
concentrated in the morning hours, with waterspouts possible.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 153 PM EDT Thu Jul 10 2025

Winds will be southwesterly through the end of the work week and
will then clock around to being west to northwesterly this
weekend. MinRH values look to remain well above critical
thresholds over the next several days. As high pressure begins
building over the region this weekend, we'll start to see MinRH
values come down as drier air aloft mixes down to the surface this
weekend, but no increase in fire concerns is expected given the
moist conditions we've seen so far this summer. Dispersions will
be fair to moderate for most regions on Friday with high
dispersions east of the I-75 corridor. More widespread high
dispersions are expected on Saturday afternoon for SE Alabama and
SW Georgia with westerly transport winds of 10-15 mph. Highs in
the 90s each day with heat indices pushing the low to mid 100s in
spots. Daily chances for late morning through mid evening
thunderstorms.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 153 PM EDT Thu Jul 10 2025

Over the next week, diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms
are expected each afternoon and evening. These will be typical of
the summer wet season, riverine flooding is not expected. Isolated
downpours could lead to flash flooding concerns, especially in
areas with poor drainage.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   76  94  75  95 /  20  60  10  50
Panama City   79  91  79  92 /  20  50  10  40
Dothan        74  93  73  94 /  20  60  10  50
Albany        73  94  73  95 /  20  60  20  40
Valdosta      74  95  75  97 /  20  50  10  30
Cross City    75  93  74  94 /  10  40   0  30
Apalachicola  79  89  78  90 /  10  40  10  40

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for FLZ114.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

NEAR TERM...Montgomery
SHORT TERM...Montgomery
LONG TERM....Montgomery
AVIATION...Montgomery
MARINE...Montgomery
FIRE WEATHER...Montgomery
HYDROLOGY...Montgomery

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
517 PM EDT Thu Jul 10 2025

FLZ027-102145-
Inland Wakulla FL-
517 PM EDT Thu Jul 10 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN WAKULLA COUNTY
THROUGH 545 PM EDT...

At 517 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 11
miles west of Crawfordville, moving east at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Crawfordville, Shadeville, Hilliardville, Bethel, Wakulla Springs,
and Arran.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3019 8463 3030 8457 3030 8449 3027 8427
      3015 8432 3011 8442 3008 8448
TIME...MOT...LOC 2117Z 288DEG 10KT 3022 8454

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

IG3

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
606 PM EDT Thu Jul 10 2025

FLZ017-018-102230-
Inland Jefferson FL-Leon FL-
606 PM EDT Thu Jul 10 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN JEFFERSON AND
NORTHEASTERN LEON COUNTIES THROUGH 630 PM EDT...

At 606 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Tallahassee, moving east at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Tallahassee, Tallahassee State College, Florida State University,
Florida A and M, Doak Campbell Stadium, Tallahassee Memorial Hosp,
Miccosukee, Griffin Heights, Governors Square Mall, Midtown, Lake
Miccosukee, Levy Park, Indian Head Acres, Chaires Crossroads, Baum,
Orchard Pond, Maclay State Gardens, Bragg Stadium, J R Alford
Greenway, and All Saints District.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3041 8393 3042 8436 3056 8438 3057 8438
      3058 8437 3060 8433 3061 8433 3068 8411
      3067 8400 3067 8399
TIME...MOT...LOC 2206Z 260DEG 13KT 3052 8429

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

33

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
611 PM EDT Thu Jul 10 2025

GAZ148-160-161-102245-
Berrien GA-Lanier GA-Lowndes GA-
611 PM EDT Thu Jul 10 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN BERRIEN...LANIER
AND NORTHEASTERN LOWNDES COUNTIES THROUGH 645 PM EDT...

At 611 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Moody Air Force Base, or 8 miles northeast of Valdosta, moving east
at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Lakeland, Valdosta, Moody Air Force Base, Meigs, Naylor, Courthouse,
Greenwood, Barretts, Hansell, Stockton, and Teeterville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3086 8300 3085 8301 3085 8309 3084 8309
      3083 8329 3099 8332 3103 8329 3103 8320
      3106 8320 3106 8317 3119 8317 3122 8305
      3118 8305 3119 8298 3087 8297
TIME...MOT...LOC 2211Z 248DEG 19KT 3093 8319

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

IG3

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
620 PM EDT Thu Jul 10 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0609 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     Moody Afb               30.98N 83.19W
07/10/2025  M39 MPH          Lowndes            GA   AWOS

            Moody Air Force Base.

&&