Severe Thunderstorm Warning 166, NWS Tallahassee, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
233 PM EDT Wed Jun 25 2025

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY...

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Thursday)
Issued at 207 PM EDT Wed Jun 25 2025

Local diurnally forced convection is underway across the region,
with some enhancement from the Florida Big Bend seabreeze. With
light NE flow in the 1000-700 mb layer, storm motion will
eventually favor a collision with the Florida Panhandle seabreeze
around 21z, and likely lead to more thunderstorm development
there. The local thermodynamic environment has improved to support
convection from prior days with noted cooling at 500 mb in both
model soundings and in satellite-derived soundings. Lapse rates in
the 700-500 mb layer have steepened and this has led to MLCAPE in
excess of 3000 J/Kg across the region this afternoon, so expect
some of these storms to develop quickly and produce gusty winds.
The deep layer shear is lacking at the moment, so expect single
cell storms that pulse into the early evening. As insolation is
lost, expect much of this activity to dissipate.

The remainder of the forecast is much more conditional. 12z UTC
RAOB data from KJAX and KCHS show a 30m height fall at 500 mb
along with a 3 deg C cooling, suggesting that the airmass across
not only the coastal Atlantic but that areas further inland across
the SC Midstate as well as East Central Georgia have cooled aloft,
and with the steepened lapse rates, convective growth in this area
could be substantial by late afternoon and early evening. The
concern is that upstream development in this area would progress
southwestward toward our forecast area overnight. While some
models, like the HRRR, have been indicating this possibility for
several cycles, it is only recently that the ARW has come around
to showing a MCS-like feature moving into the CWA between 04-07z
Thursday. Thus, given at least some trend toward the HRRR
solution, have oriented PoPs to show not only an overnight arrival
of showers and storms, but given the thermodynamic environment,
included a mention of severe storms with damaging winds being the
primary threat. This matches in line with the slight risk that is
in place from SPC.

Convection on Thursday is largely dependent on what happens
overnight. Remnant outflow boundaries could lead to earlier
development on Thursday. Or, if the overnight MCS doesn't impact
our forecast area, with considerable destabilization expected,
the seabreeze boundaries are expected to be more active on
Thursday, so have indicated much higher PoPs on Thursday
afternoon, especially in the southern half of the region. Overall,
we're moving toward a more stormy pattern again across the
region.

&&

.SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 207 PM EDT Wed Jun 25 2025

The inverted trough that will round the base of the ridge to our
north tonight, and approach from the NE, will remain overhead
throughout the weekend as a cutoff low-type of feature before
eventually dissipating late on Sunday. By Monday morning an
additional tropical wave looks to round the Bermuda high across the
western Atlantic and approach the FL Peninsula from the south. This
will lead to unsettled weather persisting through midweek with
elevated probabilities for afternoon thunderstorms each day.

Expect daytime highs to begin gradually cooling throughout the
extended period given the widespread chances for showers and storms,
with daytime highs generally in the upper 80s to low 90s. Expect
overnight lows generally in the low to mid 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 207 PM EDT Wed Jun 25 2025

SHRA/TSRA beginning to develop across the Florida Big Bend, with
one already in VC of TLH. Expect TSRA to grow in coverage as it
interacts with the Western Big Bend and Panhandle sea breezes in
NE flow. For now, maintained VCTS groups at most terminals, though
it is possible amendments for tempo IFR conditions will be
needed at TLH/ECP this afternoon/evening. Overnight, expect
another round of TSRA to approach from the NE and included tempo
groups to cover this based on the latest model timing. MVFR to IFR
conditions will accompany these storms. VFR conditions expected
by daybreak, with TSRA development tomorrow most likely occuring
near terminals after 18z Thursday.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 207 PM EDT Wed Jun 25 2025

A weak pressure gradient in place through tomorrow will favor
offshore winds during the overnight hours becoming southwest in the
afternoon, generally less than 10 knots. Daily diurnal showers and
thunderstorms can be expected for the next several days, mainly in
the overnight and early morning hours. The exception may be tonight
and Thursday, when strong to severe thunderstorms may drive toward
the coast from the evening hours into the overnight hours, with
briefly higher winds and seas possible.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 207 PM EDT Wed Jun 25 2025

Daily chances of showers and thunderstorms will continue for the
next several days with gusty winds and frequent lightning near
storms. Otherwise, there are no other significant fire weather
concerns.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 207 PM EDT Wed Jun 25 2025

Through the week, scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected
to increase in coverage. As PWATs increase, it won't be surprising
for a few storms to result in heavy downpours. The WPC has
highlighted the region in a Marginal (level 1 of 4) risk for
Excessive Rainfall through tomorrow. Isolated flash flooding may
occur in low-lying areas or poor drainage. However, widespread
flooding is not expected. Our rivers are in good condition so,
riverine flooding is not expected.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   74  96  72  90 /  40  70  40  70
Panama City   75  95  74  89 /  40  60  60  70
Dothan        75  97  71  91 /  40  70  50  70
Albany        75  97  71  91 /  40  50  40  60
Valdosta      73  97  71  91 /  40  70  40  70
Cross City    72  96  70  92 /  40  60  40  70
Apalachicola  75  92  76  88 /  40  50  50  60

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

NEAR TERM...Godsey
SHORT TERM...Oliver
LONG TERM....Oliver
AVIATION...Godsey
MARINE...Oliver
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...Godsey

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