Severe Thunderstorm Warning 148, NWS Tallahassee, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
256 PM EDT Thu Jun 19 2025

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY...

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Friday)
Issued at 243 PM EDT Thu Jun 19 2025

Another active day of scattered to widespread showers and storms
is occuring this afternoon. Scattered activity across Florida will
continue through the afternoon while our attention turns to a line
of more organized storms currently across southern Alabama and
central Georgia. This band, fueled by the upper level trough
overhead and daytime heating ahead of it, will continue south and
east through the afternoon and into the evening. An isolated
strong, possibly severe, storm can't be ruled out across our
southeast Alabama counties and into southwest Georgia as it moves
through but the severe threat will likely remain confined to
these areas. It's possible this line makes it to Florida counties
this evening, but if it does it will largely be working with an
environment with prior thunderstorm activity worked over, and the
loss of daytime heating should at least aid in weakening the
activity in the evening hours.

As the broad upper level trough moves east tonight into Friday,
we'll likely see another round of scattered showers and
thunderstorms tomorrow. However, with the trough moving out, low-
mid level flow turning northwesterly to northerly, and drier mid-
level air moving in behind the feature it's possible we'll see a
reduction in shower and storm chances tomorrow afternoon compared
to today, especially across our Alabama and Georgia counties. If
the timing of the northwesterly flow is a little slower, that
could allow better coverage of storms for tomorrow as the
seabreeze interacts with this northwesterly flow to produce a
favorable seabreeze convergence pattern.

&&

.SHORT AND LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Saturday night)
Issued at 243 PM EDT Thu Jun 19 2025

Ridging is forecast to persist over the eastern CONUS through the
weekend and well into next week with our local area on the southern
periphery. Subsidence from the ridging will help limit PoPs over the
northern portions of the area and cause high temperatures to rise
several degrees into the mid to upper 90s. Afternoon showers and
storms will be possible each day but should mostly stick around the
FL counties along the seabreeze. Heat indices will also rise into
the 102 to 112 degree range each afternoon, and some spots may end
up needing a heat advisory.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 121 PM EDT Thu Jun 19 2025

VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period. The main
exceptions will be scattered VCTS that should affect all terminals
from at least 18z through 00z. Some activity could persist past
00z but most coverage should begin to reduce after 00z across the
area. Patchy fog can't be ruled out at terminals that receive rain
but confidence is too low to warrant mention in the TAF.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 243 PM EDT Thu Jun 19 2025

The Bermuda High over the western Atlantic extending into the Gulf
will result in a light south to southwest flow for the next several
days. Daily chances of showers and thunderstorms continue,
especially during the overnight and morning hours each day. Into the
weekend, the high shifts a little farther north, bringing in more of
a light east to southeast flow over the weekend.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 243 PM EDT Thu Jun 19 2025

Low fire weather concerns should continue as daily chances for
showers and storms remain in the forecast. Only slight concerns
will be dispersions on the lower side across Florida the next few
days, but critically low dispersions aren't forecast. Beginning
early next week high pressure builds over the eastern US and this
will cause the flow regime to switch from light westerly to
elevated easterly flow. This will also bring warmer and drier
conditions, but at this point recent rains, and humidities not
reaching near critical levels, should keep any fire weather
concerns from developing.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 243 PM EDT Thu Jun 19 2025

Some localized heavy downpours are possible in storms each
afternoon, which can result in quick ponding or minor flash flooding
in poor drainage or low-lying areas. However, widespread flood
concerns are not anticipated.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   74  94  75  93 /  50  60  20  60
Panama City   77  92  78  92 /  30  40  30  50
Dothan        73  93  74  95 /  30  30  10  30
Albany        73  94  74  95 /  30  20  10  30
Valdosta      74  94  74  94 /  40  40  20  40
Cross City    73  94  72  93 /  20  60  30  60
Apalachicola  77  90  78  89 /  30  50  30  40

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for FLZ108-112-114.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

NEAR TERM...Dobbs
SHORT TERM...Merrifield
LONG TERM....Merrifield
AVIATION...Dobbs
MARINE...Merrifield
FIRE WEATHER...Dobbs
HYDROLOGY...Merrifield

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
216 PM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025

FLZ008-108-191945-
Central Walton FL-South Walton FL-
216 PM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT WEST CENTRAL WALTON COUNTY
THROUGH 245 PM CDT...

At 216 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Niceville, moving east at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Eglin Air Force Base, New Home, Portland, and Villa Tasso.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3060 8639 3063 8620 3046 8616 3047 8620
      3049 8620 3049 8619 3050 8620 3047 8623
      3049 8625 3047 8629 3048 8633 3046 8639
TIME...MOT...LOC 1916Z 261DEG 18KT 3052 8645

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

02-MONTGOMERY

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