Severe Thunderstorm Warning 129, NWS Tallahassee, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
1107 AM EDT Mon Jun 9 2025

...New UPDATE, MARINE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1100 AM EDT Mon Jun 9 2025

The forecast is tracking well with observed conditions and latest
guidance, so no intermediate forecast updates are planned.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 138 AM EDT Mon Jun 9 2025

Active weather over the next 24 hours will be fueled by an upper
level shortwave racing eastward from lower Mississippi Valley into
the southeast states. A large cluster of strong to severe storms
over eastern Texas early this morning will race eastward in
association with it. Meanwhile, weak perturbations in the flow over
our area continue to fuel scattered showers and thunderstorms early
this morning. As we head through the day, the moist and unstable
airmass will continue to allow for scattered showers and
thunderstorms across the forecast area, most concentrated across the
north and west portions of the area closest to the stronger upper
level support. Given ample instability and relatively strong deep
layer shear values for summer, a few strong to severe storms cannot
be ruled out with gusty winds and maybe some hail. Locally heavy
rainfall will also be possible. Highs today will generally range
from the upper 80s to lower 90s.

For tonight, as the upper level shortwave moves just north of the
area, a continuation of scattered to numerous and showers and
thunderstorms is expected, again most concentrated across the north
and west half of the area. Gusty winds, frequent lightning, and
locally heavy rain will continue to be the main threats. Overnight
lows will be muggy, generally in the low to mid 70s, except upper
70s along the coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tuesday through Wednesday night)
Issued at 138 AM EDT Mon Jun 9 2025

The active southwesterly flow regime we've been under for the last
few days looks to continue Tuesday and into Wednesday evening. With
high precipitable water content thanks to deep-layer tropical
moisture, we'll still continue a somewhat active shower/thunderstorm
pattern. However, with the upper level trough pulling out of the
region chances could be a little more scattered and not as
widespread as recent days but still above normal for this time of
year.

While a organized threat for severe weather is not expected typical
summertime isolated pulse-severe threats appear possible. Main
concerns would be a brief damaging wind gust in any of the stronger
storms.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 138 AM EDT Mon Jun 9 2025

Model ensemble guidance is in fairly good agreement on low-level
flow becoming south and southeasterly from Thursday into the
upcoming weekend as the Atlantic High noses westwards into the
Florida Peninsula. With precipitable waters likely remaining at
least above normal through the period, this should keep daily
chances for showers and thunderstorms in place across the area.
However, with deep-layer moisture not as high as earlier this week,
and the southeasterly flow regime in place, expect a more typical
diurnal trend and slightly lower rain chances from Thursday into the
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 600 AM EDT Mon Jun 9 2025

Unsettled conditions are expected across the area today with
multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms through the period. The
best chance of seeing thunderstorms looks to be at ECP, DHN, and
ABY, although scattered thunderstorms are also expected to be in the
vicinity of TLH and VLD this afternoon. Outside of storms, VFR
conditions are expected with the exception of some lower ceilings at
VLD early this morning. Another round of showers and thunderstorms
is expected for tonight.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1100 AM EDT Mon Jun 9 2025

The subtropical ridge axis across South Florida and the southeast
Gulf today will support gentle to moderate southwest breezes over
the northeast Gulf waters. The ridge axis will move north to the
latitude of Central Florida on Tuesday, then over the northeast
Gulf on Wednesday. In response, southwest breezes will gradually
decrease through Wednesday. On Thursday and Friday, the ridge axis
will migrate north of the waters across Georgia and the Carolinas,
so a turn to southeast breezes is forecast.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 138 AM EDT Mon Jun 9 2025

Other than high dispersions this afternoon, fire weather concerns
are expected to remain minimal with a moist airmass in place and a
daily chance of showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 138 AM EDT Mon Jun 9 2025

Locally heavy rain remains possible within any of the showers or
storms thanks to precipitable water values (PWATs) between 1.7" to
2.0", or near the 90th percentile for early-mid June. Isolated
flash flooding is a possibility for the next few days as clusters
of thunderstorms could train over the area, especially as we see
the soil continue to moisten with each round of showers and
storms. The best chance of that occurring is across southwest
Georgia, southeast Alabama, and the eastern Florida Panhandle.
There is a Slight (level 2 of 4) Risk for excessive rainfall in
these areas with a Marginal (1 of 4) for the rest of the region.
The Marginal risks continue through Tuesday. Fortunately, area
rivers and streams remain in good shape with gradual rises
possible.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   91  74  89  73 /  50  70  80  30
Panama City   88  76  88  75 /  60  70  80  50
Dothan        89  71  86  71 /  80  80  80  40
Albany        88  72  87  71 /  80  80  70  40
Valdosta      91  74  91  71 /  60  50  70  40
Cross City    90  75  91  71 /  40  20  50  20
Apalachicola  87  77  87  75 /  50  60  70  40

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for FLZ108-112-114.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

NEAR TERM...DVD
SHORT TERM...Dobbs
LONG TERM....Dobbs
AVIATION...DVD
MARINE...Haner
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...Dobbs

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