Severe Thunderstorm Warning 115, NWS Tallahassee, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
209 PM EDT Fri May 30 2025

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY...

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Saturday)
Issued at 120 PM EDT Fri May 30 2025

An unstable airmass is in place across the region this afternoon
ahead of an approaching cold front. Scattered storms have
developed along the I-10 corridor aided by the seabreeze, with
additional storms developing farthern north across central AL/GA
closer to the frontal boundary. With stronger deep layer shear in
place to the north, conditions are more favorable for strong to
severe storms with these northern storms as they sag south through
the late afternoon and evening. Damaging winds and hail will be
the primary threats. While the severe threat should start to
diminish after sunset, the activity will likely continue as the
front moves south across Panhandle and Big Bend overnight.

A drier airmass will follow the front on Saturday, with only some
lingering PoPs for the SE Big Bend. Temperatures won't be
significantly cooler, but dewpoints will be quite a bit lower,
helping to keep the humidity much more pleasant.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Saturday night through Sunday night)
Issued at 120 PM EDT Fri May 30 2025

Generally dry conditions are expected to persist through Sunday in
the wake of the early weekend cold front. Only possible fly in the
ointment is a shortwave dropping towards the Gulf Coast Sunday
afternoon in the northwest flow aloft. These features can sometime
yield unexpected thunderstorms in this type of flow pattern.
However, lapse rates are not terribly impressive aloft, which
should limit the instability available, given the dry air at the
surface. Therefore, will leave PoPs out of the forecast for now,
but continue to monitor through the weekend. Otherwise, seasonably
warm temperatures are expected on Sunday, with highs in the lower
90s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 120 PM EDT Fri May 30 2025

The eastern trough of the weekend will give way to a building
ridge for next week, leading to a mostly dry and hot week.
Temperatures will push into the mid 90s for most areas, with very
limited rain chances until the ridge begins to break down late in
the week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 108 PM EDT Fri May 30 2025

VFR/MVFR outside of SHRA/TSRA influence this afternoon with
increasing gusty winds as a front approaches. Scattered
summertime convection now near KTLH and KECP with a broken line
moving through from the north this evening. Periods of IFR will
possible with stronger TSRA. Fog may be a concern near KTLH and
KVLD if the front happens to stall, though that seems less likely
at this time.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 120 PM EDT Fri May 30 2025

Southwest winds will shift to the northwest overnight in the wake
of a cold front, approaching exercise caution levels. Winds will
diminish through the weekend into next week as high pressure
builds over the waters.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 120 PM EDT Fri May 30 2025

A drier airmass will move into the region on Saturday in the wake
of a front. RH values will drop into the 30s during both Saturday
and Sunday afternoon, but remain above critical levels. The
combination of higher mixing heights and modest transport winds
will lead to high disperions Saturday afternoon.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 120 PM EDT Fri May 30 2025

With only scattered storms today, and dry conditions over the
weekend and into next week, there are no significant flooding
concerns.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   68  87  64  90 /  50   0   0   0
Panama City   69  86  69  86 /  40   0   0   0
Dothan        62  84  63  86 /  30   0   0   0
Albany        62  85  64  87 /  30   0   0   0
Valdosta      67  87  64  90 /  50   0   0   0
Cross City    68  87  63  89 /  60  10   0   0
Apalachicola  71  84  70  84 /  50   0   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for FLZ108-112-114.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

NEAR TERM...Humphreys
SHORT TERM...Camp
LONG TERM....Camp
AVIATION...Humphreys
MARINE...Camp
FIRE WEATHER...Humphreys
HYDROLOGY...Camp

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