Gale Warning 5, NWS Tallahassee, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
130 AM EST Tue Mar 4 2025

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 951 PM EST Mon Mar 3 2025

No major updates required this evening, the forecast is currently
on track.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Tuesday)
Issued at 222 PM EST Mon Mar 3 2025

High pressure over the Mid-Atlantic will slide eastward into the
western Atlantic while a powerful cyclone develops over the
Plains. We'll have a quiet evening overall with light easterly
winds tonight. Moisture will begin to increase through the night,
but no impactful weather is to come from this. Lows tonight will
be in the mid 40s to lower 50s.

The pressure gradient tightens significantly through the day
Tuesday. The low-level jet will also increase up to 30-35 kt at
925 mb and 35-45 kt at 850 mb during the afternoon. Given good
mixing during the afternoon, some gusts of 30-35 mph are likely.
In fact, the HREF has about an 80% or greater of 30+ mph gusts
during the afternoon hours Tuesday for much of the area. However,
the chance for 40+ mph gusts are relatively low through the near
term -- only around 20-30% and confined to the far western parts
of our area and the immediate Emerald Coast. For that reason,
don't have enough confidence to issue a Wind Advisory for Tuesday
afternoon at this point, but it will still be quite breezy
regardless, and winds pick up moreso beyond the near term period.

Otherwise, no rain is expected Tuesday afternoon, but clouds will
begin to increase in the afternoon. Highs will reach the mid to
upper 70s across the area. Building surf and strong winds will
also result in very dangerous beach conditions and life-
threatening rip currents.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tuesday night through Wednesday night)
Issued at 222 PM EST Mon Mar 3 2025

A negatively tilted upper level trough will be approaching the
Middle Mississippi Valley at the start of the short term. The
center of low pressure will be in the midwest with an associated
cold front will swoop across the eastern United States, bringing
showers and thunderstorms just ahead of it. Temperatures for
Wednesday will begin in the upper 50s to low 60s, warming to the
mid to upper 70s. Our northwestern counties in SE Alabama may only
warm to about 70 degrees as the rain-cooled air keeps temps down,
and the Cold Air Advection that should be moving into the region
following the frontal passage soon after the storms move out.

Ahead of the line of storms, our region will be experiencing
breezy southerly winds, with gusts up to 35-40 mph. The storms are
expected to move through Wednesday morning and exit by the early
afternoon. This will be a high shear/low CAPE environment. Bulk
shear is expected to range from 60-80 kts Wednesday morning, with
mid-level lapse rates around 7C/km. These conditions will be
conducive for strong to damaging wind gusts, and potentially small
hail with any discrete storms ahead of the main line. The 850mb
low-level jet with winds around 50kts and elevated SRH will lead
to at least a Marginal risk for QLCS tornadoes along the leading
edge of the squall line, particularly in our western most
counties, as that will be our most unstable environment with SB
CAPE around 300 J/Kg. The SPC our central time zone counties in a
Slight (level 2 of 5) risk for severe weather. The rest of our CWA
is included in a Marginal (level 1 of 5) risk Tuesday night into
Wednesday morning.

Forecast PWAT values are around 1.8"; so, heavy rainfall will be
possible with the storm. However, it is expected to be quick
moving. As a result, there are no flash flooding concerns.
Anyways, the WPC has highlighted the region from Albany to Panama
City line and areas west are in a Marginal (level 1 of 4) risk for
excessive rainfall; although, we do not expect to receive more
than 1 inch of rainfall.

Behind the line of storms, the air will dry out and skies will
clear by Wednesday afternoon/evening. Winds will still be gusting
around 20-25 mph following the frontal passage, and cold air
advection will usher in with the northwest winds during the
evening and overnight hours. Temperatures Wednesday night will be
in the low to mid 40s, with wind chills in the mid to upper 30s by
Thursday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 222 PM EST Mon Mar 3 2025

For the start of the long term, surface high pressure builds in
from the west. Westerly/northwesterly winds will diminish to calm
by Thursday night before becoming southerly on Friday. Dry
conditions will persist thanks to the high pressure, and zonal
flow aloft.

On Saturday, an upper level trough over the four-corners region
will sweep east across the plains while drawing in moisture from
the Gulf. This will be our next potential storm system for
Saturday evening into Sunday. At the moment, there is potential
for heavy rainfall. However, there is uncertainty regarding the
possible intensity and other threats of this system. It mainly
depends on when and where the warm sector sets up in the region.
We will continue to monitor as the system develops.

Temperatures for the long term will mainly be in the mid 60s to
the 70s with overnight lows warming into the 50s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1245 AM EST Tue Mar 4 2025

VFR conditions through the TAF period (06Z Tue - 06Z Wed).
Immediate concern is LLWS at all TAF sites with Easterly
winds AOB 5 kts at the surface and a Southeast Low-Level
jet around 40 kts at 2k ft per local VWPs. This persists
through the night, so LLWS was included at all terminals
until 14-15Z Tue. At that time, South-Southeast surface
winds will increase to around 15 knots with gusts around
25 to 30 knots.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 222 PM EST Mon Mar 3 2025

Northeasterly/Easterly winds will increase through the night to
Advisory levels for our western waters, and shift southeast
through the day Tuesday as a strong cold front approaches.
Following 00Z Wednesday, winds will be gusting up to Gale force,
hence a Gale Watch is in effect from 00z Wednesday. The winds and
seas will be elevated as a line of showers and thunderstorms move
through during the day. Some storms may be strong and include the
potential for waterspouts. Winds and seas will begin to diminish
by Thursday afternoon/evening with more tranquil boating
conditions returning heading into the weekend.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 222 PM EST Mon Mar 3 2025

Winds will strengthen on Tuesday ahead of an approaching cold
front. Transport winds will become southeasterly to southerly and
increase to 25 to 35 mph during the afternoon. This with mixing
heights around 4,000 to 5,000 feet will result in high
dispersions. RH values will be higher than recent days, mostly in
the 40s at their lowest. The cold front moves through the area
during the overnight hours Tuesday night into Wednesday morning,
bringing a squall line with it. Some of these storms could be
strong to severe with damaging winds possible.

After the cold front exits Wednesday afternoon, strong transport
winds behind the front will become more westerly around 30-40 mph.
This will result in extremely high dispersions across the area by
Wednesday afternoon. Transport winds decrease on Thursday, but
still remain out of the northwest around 15-25 mph, leading to
another afternoon of high dispersions. RH values behind the front
will bottom out in the upper 20s to lower 30s Wednesday and
Thursday afternoons.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 222 PM EST Mon Mar 3 2025

A line of showers and thunderstorms will move across the region
Tuesday night into Wednesday. This will be a progressive system,
however the rain could fall rather quickly. The WPC has
highlighted our Central Time zone counties in a Marginal Risk for
Excessive Rainfall for Wednesday, but we expect to receive no more
than 1" of rain. Along the coast, there is potential for the
onshore winds to create a surge for coastal flooding. But given
the timing of the expected elevated winds arriving at low tide,
the values expected should remain below minor flood stage. So, a
Coastal Flood Advisory is not needed at this time, however we will
monitor over the next day in case timing has changed.

For next weekend, there is another system that would bring
another round of showers and thunderstorms. There is potential for
heavy rainfall, however there is too much uncertainty at the
moment to determine if there are any flooding risks with this
system.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   75  61  77  44 /   0  60  70   0
Panama City   73  60  72  45 /   0  80  20   0
Dothan        77  58  72  40 /   0  80  10   0
Albany        77  58  74  40 /   0  90  40   0
Valdosta      79  61  77  44 /   0  20  90   0
Cross City    80  60  74  45 /   0  10  70   0
Apalachicola  69  60  71  46 /   0  70  60   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through late Wednesday night for FLZ108-
     112-114-115.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CST Tuesday for GMZ750-752-770-
     772.

     Gale Watch from Tuesday evening through late Tuesday night for
     GMZ750-752-770-772.

&&

NEAR TERM...Young
SHORT TERM...Montgomery
LONG TERM....Montgomery
AVIATION...LF
MARINE...Montgomery
FIRE WEATHER...Young
HYDROLOGY...Montgomery