Freeze Warning 13, NWS Tallahassee, FL

Coffee County, AL, Dale County, AL, Geneva County, AL, Henry County, AL, Houston County, AL, Calhoun County, FL, Holmes County, FL, Jackson County, FL, Walton County, FL, Baker County, GA, Ben Hill County, GA, Calhoun County, GA, Clay County, GA, Decatur County, GA, Dougherty County, GA, Early County, GA, Irwin County, GA, Lee County, GA, Miller County, GA, Mitchell County, GA, Quitman County, GA, Randolph County, GA, Seminole County, GA, Terrell County, GA, Turner County, GA, Worth County, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
1206 PM EST Mon Dec 15 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1204 PM EST Mon Dec 15 2025

- There is a medium (30-70%) chance of another hard freeze tonight
  across southeast Alabama, southwest Georgia, and inland parts of
  the Florida Panhandle. A freeze watch is in effect for late
  Monday night into Tuesday morning. Residents should protect
  people, pets, and plants across the area with pipe protection in
  the hard freeze area.

- Advisory level conditions are expected for the rest of our
  waters through this afternoon. Mariners, especially those
  operating small craft, should remain in port or alter plans
  after reviewing current conditions and forecasts.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1009 AM EST Mon Dec 15 2025

No changes made to the forecast this morning. Winds have remained
a little higher than forecast but this should not persist long as
the low-level winds from the east begin to decrease as high
pressure begins to settle in.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 146 AM EST Mon Dec 15 2025

The cold front has completed its passage through our CWA, leaving
us with bitterly cold temperatures and breezy northeasterly
winds. Due to the winds this morning, wind chills will be in the
low 20s and mid to upper teens across the region. Actual temps
will be in the mid to upper 20s, to around 30 degrees along the
immediate coast. The coastal communities of Walton, Bay, Gulf, and
Franklin are expected to experience their first freeze of the
season, hence their Freeze warning. The other counties in the
region under a Freeze warning early this morning are for
temperatures below 25 degrees for a Hard Freeze. A Cold Weather
Advisory is in effect through 10AM EST/ 9AM CST this morning, when
apparent (feels-like) temperatures are expected to rise above
criteria (20 degrees for AL and GA, 25 degrees for FL).

During the day today, winds will decrease, lowering the wind
chill effect; albeit, temperatures will remain chilly. Highs today
will be in the mid to upper 40s, with wind chills in the low to
mid-40s. However, we can expect clear skies.

Temperatures will be cold again tonight with lows expected to
fall to the low to mid-20s for areas north and west of the
I-10/I-75 corridors with radiational cooling being the main factor
for the colder temperatures than the night prior. For locations
east of this area, there is potential for moisture return in the
essence of cloud cover that could keep temperatures a little
warmer for the night. A Freeze Watch for a Hard Freeze is in
effect for our AL, GA, and inland FL Panhandle counties for late
Monday night into Tuesday morning. Due to the light/calm winds,
wind chills will not differ from the actual temperatures.

Temperatures and dew points begin to increase during the day on
Tuesday as we begin a warming trend following this cold snap. High
temperatures will range from the upper 50s to low 60s for most of
the region with upper 60s for the SE Big Bend. We can expect
light/calm northeasterly winds through the day and another day of
clear to mostly clear skies.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 146 AM EST Mon Dec 15 2025

Surface high pressure will slide off to the east during the day
on Wednesday as an upper level shortwave trough swings past to our
north. The shortwave trough will get absorbed by a stronger
trough through the rest of the week. The stronger trough will push
a cold front later in the week that looks to bring our next
chance for showers and thunderstorms. We are currently not
anticipating severe weather or heavy rain with this system, but
will continue to monitor as it develops. Guidance currently
suggests a 30-50% chance for showers/thunderstorms Thursday night
into Friday with (maybe) Friday's cold front.

In the meantime, for the long term, temperatures will be on a
warming trend. Expect highs in the mid to upper 60s and low 70s
with morning lows starting int the mid to upper 30s, then warming
to the 40s for most of the week; Friday morning potentially being
the warmest with temps in the upper 40s to low 50s. These
temperatures are actually a few degrees above average for mid-
December.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1204 PM EST Mon Dec 15 2025

Light to moderate northeasterly breezes continue this afternoon.
Winds go nearly calm near sunset with light winds generally out of
the northeast to east. VFR conditions are forecast to prevail
throughout the period.

It's worth mentioning that there is a low chance, less than 20%,
of some MVFR ceilings impacting VLD and TLH Tuesday morning.
However, with the low chance and low confidence, have kept any
mention of it out of the TAFs with this issuance.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 146 AM EST Mon Dec 15 2025

North-northeasterly winds gusting up to gale force very early
this morning. The gusts will decrease down to below gale force,
therefore discontinuing the Gale Warning at 4AM EST/ 3AM CST
Monday.

Advisory level conditions with seas of 6-8 feet continue for our
waters this morning. Northeast winds will decrease to Exercise
Caution in the afternoon. Winds will then fall to around 10 kts
and will hold at a gentle to moderate breeze through the rest of
the forecast period as winds gradually shift to southeasterly.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 146 AM EST Mon Dec 15 2025

Colder temperatures are expected area wide today with highs in
the 40s. Transport winds will be northeasterly this afternoon at
around 15-20 mph, decreasing to about 10-15 mph later this
evening. Dispersions will be good this afternoon with mixing
heights around 2300 feet. The concern will be critically low
humidity values in the low 20%s for districts along and north of
I-10.

Surface high pressure will be more well centered over us on
Tuesday resulting in lighter winds around 5-10 mph, lower mixing
heights around 1400-2200 feet, and low dispersions area wide.
Humidity values improve for most locations to be between 30 and 40
percent; however there are areas in our northern GA districts
that may encounter humidities in the 20%s. Low dispersions are
expected again for Wednesday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 146 AM EST Mon Dec 15 2025

Dry weather is expected for most of the week. The next possible
chance for rain will arrive late in the week with maybe a quarter
to half-inch of rainfall. No flooding is expected. For more
information on local impacts from drought, please visit
www.weather.gov/tae/LocalDrought.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   47  30  61  41 /   0   0   0   0
Panama City   49  32  61  44 /   0   0   0   0
Dothan        45  24  57  36 /   0   0   0   0
Albany        44  21  57  34 /   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      46  26  61  38 /   0   0   0   0
Cross City    49  35  67  44 /   0   0   0   0
Apalachicola  49  39  59  48 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Freeze Watch from late tonight through Tuesday morning for
     FLZ007-009>011-013.

     High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for FLZ114-115.

GA...Freeze Watch from late tonight through Tuesday morning for
     GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161.

AL...Freeze Watch from late tonight through Tuesday morning for
     ALZ065>069.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST /3 PM CST/ this afternoon
     for GMZ730-751-752-755-765-770-772-775.

&&

SHORT TERM...Montgomery
LONG TERM....Montgomery
AVIATION...Reese
MARINE...Montgomery
FIRE WEATHER...Montgomery
HYDROLOGY...Montgomery